What You Need to Know Before Going to Hong Kong

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Protests are threatening Hong Kong's reputation as a safe and stable business environment. Given the political deadlock, the unrest isn't expected to end anytime soon. Personnel can certainly still operate in the region, but they will need to be more cautious to avoid getting caught up in the violence.

Editor's Note: ­This security-focused assessment is one of many such analyses found at Stratfor Threat Lens, a unique protective intelligence product designed with corporate security leaders in mind. Threat Lens enables industry professionals and organizations to anticipate, identify, measure and mitigate emerging threats to people, assets and intellectual property the world over. Threat Lens is the only unified solution that analyzes and forecasts security risk from a holistic perspective, bringing all the most relevant global insights into a single, interactive threat dashboard.

Protests and clashes between demonstrators and police have become a fact of life in Hong Kong during the second half of 2019. And the situation has reached a political stalemate. Protesters continue to push their five demands (the resignation of Chief Executive Carrie Lam, the release of all arrested protesters, an independent inquiry into police actions, the removal of the term "riot" and universal suffrage), and the government insists that it must oppose protests in order to uphold the rule of law.

The Big Picture

By Sept. 4, when Hong Kong's government withdrew the controversial extradition bill that had sparked almost four months of unrest, the city's protests had already grown into a larger anti-government movement. The demonstrations now seem to have their own momentum as both sides keep escalating their tactics and responses. With each escalation, the prospect for deadly violence increases, putting outsiders at risk.

The impasse has led to a cat-and-mouse game between police and thousands of radical protesters who are willing to use violence to support their cause. 

Fluid Tactics

While the Chinese semiautonomous region is no stranger to protests, these are quite different from the more predictable Occupy movement in 2014. In 2019, protesters have adopted a more fluid approach, adjusting the times and locations of their actions in order to avoid police and maximize their disruptions. This poses an unusual risk for those traveling to Hong Kong and used to working in a stable business environment, where public acts of violence are rare. 

Moreover, at any given moment, most of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is peaceful and offers a good business environment. Though the peace can be broken virtually anywhere and anytime, months of observation have allowed Threat Lens to discern a fairly predictable pattern of where and when the most violent activity occurs. Residents are also aware of this pattern and can avoid — or join — protests as they see fit. Foreign visitors, however, are not usually as attuned to the street-level ebb and flow of the protests. The following guidance is intended to for them. 

First, foreign visitors are not the target of either protesters or police. As long as visitors don't get involved in protests or take highly visible public stances on the politics surrounding them, they won't be affected. The exception is Chinese nationals from the mainland, who have been targeted for harassment and, in at least one case, physical assault because of the perception that they oppose the demonstrations.

Protest activity is typically light during the week. From Monday through Thursday, small demonstrations are possible in central Hong Kong; Chater Garden, for example, is a popular gathering point for small, peaceful rallies during the week. These are typically planned ahead of time and are organized with police permission. Such gatherings don't pose a threat, but visitors should avoid them because of the risk of escalation or of being associated with protests by being physically present. 

The biggest risk to travelers during the week is the sporadic service disruptions of the Mass Transit Railway (MTR), the public transportation network, because of vandalism at train stations. In the unlikely event that visitors happen upon a station while it is being damaged, use common sense and leave. Similarly, if visitors happen upon a station that has been vandalized — broken glass, turnstiles and ticketing machines — they should avoid it and hail a taxi or other ride service. 

Occasionally, attacks on MTR stations lead to broader disruptions along entire service lines. Even stations that aren't vandalized could still see service outages. Backup transportation options will be key during a trip to Hong Kong during the current protest campaign. 

Weekends — Friday afternoon through Sunday evening — tend to see far more protest activity and violence. Major holidays have also seen increased activity, and demonstrations involving tens or even hundreds of thousands of people occur at least once a month. The two most common areas for these are along Gloucester Road between Causeway Bay and Central (aka the Central District), and on the other side of the harbor in Kowloon, along Nathan Road between the Prince Edward and Tsim Sha Tsui MTR stations.

Protests tend to spill into side streets and parallel roads. To be clear, activity isn't limited to these areas, but it is common enough that travelers would be wise to avoid them during weekends — especially during the late afternoon and evening, when clashes with police tend to intensify. Smaller, impromptu protests can crop up virtually anywhere. If visitors see or hear such activity, they should leave the area or seek cover. Demonstrations have been known to spill over into shopping malls and to target businesses perceived as pro-China, but hotels, restaurants and office buildings remain safe areas. The threat is most pronounced on the street. 

The Radical Element

While most protesters are peaceful, there is a large radical element, numbering in the thousands, that frequently carries out acts of vandalism and violence that can damage property and hurt people. Protesters have thrown gasoline bombs, set fires in the street or in front of police stations, and thrown bricks or used slingshots to propel stones at police.

While the majority of protesters are peaceful, there is a large radical element that carries out vandalism and violence.

In a few cases, they have used knives and improvised bombs. The police usually respond with nonlethal tools such as tear gas, bean bag rounds and baton charges, which lead to dozens, and sometimes over 100, injuries on both sides. On a few occasions, officers have been forced to draw and fire their sidearms. Given the risks, visitors shouldn't participate in protests. 

Finally, Hong Kong International Airport remains an attractive target to protesters after they shut down operations there for several days in August. Authorities have put up a tight security cordon around the airport, ensuring that only ticketed individuals get into the terminals, but protesters have targeted public transportation and road links to the airport in an attempt to block access to it. This is not a regular occurrence, but given the high risk of disruption when protests do target the airport, it is worth leaving for outbound flights from Hong Kong well in advance.