By Jessica Stern
The death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State, is profoundly important. He was a powerfully inspirational figure, more formidable and perhaps more evil than Osama bin Laden.
He was an Islamic scholar who claimed to be a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. He built on the apocalyptic ideology and extraordinary cruelty of his mentor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq (the predecessor organization to ISIS).
Importantly, Mr. al-Baghdadi managed to recruit former Iraqi Baathist military and intelligence personnel, hugely strengthening his capacity for insurgency. And he took advantage of Syria’s civil war to create a first in the history of modern terrorism: a proto-state able to seize and control territory, amass possibly billions of dollars and organize a major military force.
Under Mr. al-Baghdadi’s leadership, ISIS became the richest and most powerful terrorist group in contemporary history.
He promised his global followers a five-star jihad — to include free housing, cars, even wives. His adherents flocked to his “caliphate” from all over the world, the most effective recruitment drive to a jihadi organization that the world has ever seen.
He specialized in unusual cruelty, including live-streamed beheadings of his enemies (most of whom were Muslim), training small children to kill at close range (something most humans have difficulty doing), and selling women to be repeatedly raped. Even Al Qaeda reviled his gruesome tactics.
Mr. al-Baghdadi’s death demonstrated to remaining supporters that even the “caliph” is vulnerable. But it is more important politically and symbolically than it is militarily.
Jihadi leaders, and even jihadi groups, come and go. They split off into new factions, merge with erstwhile enemies, and acquire new names and allegiances.
ISIS is perhaps the best example of this trend. Two leaders were vying for control of what remained of Al Qaeda in Iraq, the group supposedly defeated by President George W. Bush’s “surge.” One of the leaders — Abu Mohammad al-Julani — stayed within the bosom of Al Qaeda. The other — Mr. al-Baghdadi — broke with Al Qaeda and eventually announced his creation of a caliphate, eventually attracting tens of thousands of followers.
Did Mr. al-Baghdadi put a succession plan in place? There are highly credible rumors that he did.
But even if there was no concrete plan for succession, ISIS had already returned to its terrorist roots, with the capacity to inspire attacks all over the globe. Even after losing its territory, ISIS continued to attract adherents.
But more important, we need to remember that the world is fighting not a single man, nor even a single organization, but a movement. Unfortunately, many of the risk factors for the rise of ISIS still remain. Among these are weak states with poor governance, unemployed or underemployed youth, simmering sectarian tensions or civil war.
ISIS exploited many of these factors to spread its “provinces” into other nations wracked by conflict, among them Afghanistan, Libya, Nigeria and Yemen. Many of its provinces remain in place. Despite losing what remained of its caliphate in March, ISIS still managed to carry out several major terrorist strikes, including in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Iraq.
For those of us in the West, ISIS exploited social media to attract and inspire global followers, in what became known as “open-source jihad.” Unfortunately, this is one of a number of lessons that other terrorist groups will take on board: Until social-media companies find a way to address the dangers of anonymity online, terrorist groups and criminal rings will continue to follow suit.
On Sunday morning, President Trump provided an unusual level of detail about the workings of the mission to take Mr. al-Baghdadi down. Still, in the coming weeks and months, we may learn about how global intelligence personnel penetrated ISIS, and the kinds of international cooperation that led to his demise.
But one thing is already clear: This was not the work of a single president or a single nation taken over a single week. It involved the courageous citizens of the “deep state,” those often-nameless intelligence and military personnel so dedicated to protecting the lives of fellow citizens that they are willing risk their own. It also, according to Mr. Trump, involved cooperation from Russia, Syria, Iraq and Turkey — as well as intelligence from the very Kurds that Mr. Trump abandoned when he pulled American troops out of northern Syria.
In this regard, Mr. al-Baghdadi’s most significant mistake may have been to make himself the enemy of the entire world, inciting his enemies to work together against him.
ISIS will eventually be defeated. But we are fighting the jihadi movement, not a single jihadi group. And the jihadi movement is just one manifestation of the fundamentalist impulse — the desire to turn the clock back to an imaginary simpler time.
The ever-quickening pace of technological advancement will continue to bring the entire world into our homes, leaving some feeling alienated and confused. Climate change will continue to contribute to conflict over resources and waves of migration. And terrorist groups will continue to emerge, seeking to return us to a Golden Era when our worlds seemed neatly contained and when right and wrong seemed crystal clear.
No comments:
Post a Comment