Indian Strategic Studies: History 2.0 (Version 2)

31 August 2019

History 2.0 (Version 2)

by Frank Li

The dramatic comeback of China over the past four decades not only has rocketed China's economy to the world's top (in terms of PPP - purchasing power parity), with no end in sight, but also is ending western domination over the past 200 years.

What does that mean to the world? Everything, from politics (End of Democracy?) to economics (Adam Smith vs. Karl Marx)!

To understand the profound implication of this change, we must truly understand the past, re-writing parts of the history as necessary, thus "History 2.0" ...

0. History

Human history of the past 2,500 years was most prominently made by China, India, and the West (e.g. Spain, Britain, and the U.S.), as shown by the image below, with other folks making some intermittently, such as the Arabs (Early Muslim conquests), Mongols (Mongol Empire), and Turks (Ottoman Empire).

History is written by, and about, the victors. Because China and India were big losers from 1776 to 1976, most of the recent history has been written by the West, especially America.

Now, China is back, big time, and so is India, to a lesser extent. It's time to examine the history, correcting some as necessary.

In this post, I will simply divide human history of the past 2,500 years into three periods:

Period 1: 500 BC - 1492 AD. What happened in 1492? Christopher Columbusdiscovered the "new" world!

Period 2: 1492 - 2003. What happened in 2003? The U.S. launched the Iraq War!

Period 3: 2003 - Present.

Let me elaborate on each ...

1. Period 1: 500 BC - 1492 AD

Throughout this period, everything was "evolutionary". Two highlights:

All countries were challenged in governance, from Greece (e.g. democracy) to China (e.g. "All under Heaven"). For more, read: Ancient Greece vs. Ancient China.

Some empires were built. But they were mostly land-based, over a long period of time (e.g. 200 years).

Three outstanding civilizations throughout this period:

Western civilization: It was primarily shaped by the Romans, on top of Greek civilization.

Chinese civilization: China, together with India, led the world in almost everything.

Indian civilization (Indus Valley Civilization): India, together with China, led the world in almost everything. Unfortunately, India is not really on her way back like China is, I will hereby leave India out with this previous publication: China vs. India: Uniformity vs. Diversity, whose conclusion is that India is behind China by at least 200 years in terms of governance and economic development.

The image below highlights the key difference between the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire, which is the key reason why Rome was long gone while China has long endured.

Two informative readings:

The fortune of the West, especially when compared with China (and India), came after 1492, when Christopher Columbus discovered the "new" world.

2. Period 2: 1492 - 2003

The discovery of the "new" world was "revolutionary", in contrast with everything before, which was "evolutionary."

With guns in one hand and the Bible in the other, the West (e.g. Spain and Britain) Europeanized (aka colonized) not only the "new" world, but also almost entirely the rest of the old world, including China (and India).

For an overview of 500 years of European colonialism, watch the short video below.

As a result, the West became exceptionally rich, but the rest of the world exceptionally poor.

Take China as an example ... China (comparable to India) had the largest economy in the world for most of the first 18 centuries of our 2-millennium-old calendar. Despite the West's expansion after 1492, by 1820, China's world share of GDP was still, according to Dambisa Moyo (How the west was lost), at an impressive 32.2%, while America's was a paltry 1.8% and Europe's was 26.6%. However, after 1820, it was hell for China - See image below (according to Moyo).

In short, by the mid-1800s, the world became distorted, totally!

This total distortion has resulted in two monstrous falsehoods (or "temporary phenomena", historically speaking):

America as an exceptional country, featuring, among other things, two "new" notions: liberty and self-governing. Neither was "new", at all, as they both predate the notion of a nation-state formed quite a few thousand years ago.

Democracy as a, if not the only, valid form of government. The simple truth is Western [liberal] democracy was built on top of capitalism, colonialism, and imperialism, without which democracy has failed everywhere else (e.g. Egypt), without exception.

Both falsehoods were largely exposed on March 20, 2003, when the U.S. launched the Iraq War ...

3. Period 3: 2003 - Present

The "revolution" started in 1492 was over in 2003. The world has since returned to its "evolution" mode. Three main reasons:

China is back, ending the western dominance.

Having consumed most of the wealth accumulated since its exceptional founding, America has turned out to be not exceptional at all. For example, today, America is facing the same challenges as many old countries (e.g. China and Egypt) faced, with effective governance topping the list. For more, read: Governance in America.

The two monstrous falsehoods, accompanied with America over the past 200 years, were almost totally exposed by two recent events: (1) the launch of the Iraq War in 2003 and (2) the financial crisis in 2008. Together, they gave China an extra-ordinary confidence boost: The West is no longer the model to emulate, but a target to surpass.

Do not under-estimate China's comeback over the past four decades! It actually took China some 200 years to have finally found its own path to success. For more, read: What is China's State Capitalism, Anyway?

For a comparison between the U.S. and China, read: The U.S. vs. China: A Great Experiment vs. A Great Civilization!

4. Summary

Dividing human history of the past 2,500 years into three periods may be overly simplistic. But it serves the purpose of this post. Specifically,

1492 was a key to start period 2. By discovering the "new" world in 1492, Christopher Columbus actually started a revolution that made the world totally "abnormal," exceptionally good for the West but bad for the rest.

2003 was a key to start period 3. In contrast to America's self-destruction, epitomized by the launch of the Iraq War in 2003, China, by coming back strongly over the past four decades, has more or less restored the world to its "norm," with a peaceful and "evolutionary" model towards prosperity for the rest of the world to emulate, in stark contrast with the violent and "revolutionary" model by which the West enriched itself!

5. Future

Why do we need to study the past?

To understand the present and foresee the future!

With no more new land to be conquered and no more new people to be subjugated, the West, led by the U.S., must now compete against China on a more equal footing.

Who will win the head-on competition between the U.S. and China this century?

China!

Why?

It's the political system, stupid!

Simply put, China's system (i.e. capitalism + autocracy), with many endemic problems of its own, is better than America's (i.e. capitalism + democracy), however slightly!

In a 2-hiker world, all one hiker needs to do, when chased by a hungry grizzly, is to run a bit faster than the other hiker.

To better appreciate this prediction of the future, we must truly understand the past and present, especially Britain, representing the past of the West, and America, representing the present of the West.