By Tao Peng
On the occasion of the deadlock in the U.S.-DPRK denuclearization negotiations, the increasingly fierce Sino-U.S. game, and the G20 summit in Japan, Chinese President Xi Jinping flew to North Korea to start a two-day state mission. This was interpreted by some analyses as Xi Jinping would U.S.e this to put the United States under pressure at the Japan Summit or to present a gift to Trump. Judging from varioU.S. recent statements and actions in Beijing, Xi Jinping’s trip has both the intention of displaying strength to the United States and the intention of reconciling with the United States, which can be described as a double-edged sculpture.
First of all, the primary connotation of Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is that Beijing and Pyongyang will break away from the Cold War framework, adapt to the world's development trend, synchronize the internal policies of the two countries, and get rid of the strategic squeeze imposed by the United States on China in Northeast Asia.
Xi Jinping's visit to the DPRK is the first time that China's top leaders have visited the DPRK in the past 14 years. It is also the first visit to the DPRK by Xi Jinping since the 18th CPC National Congress and the first state visit of the top leaders of China and the DPRK since 1982. North Korea greeted Xi Jinping and his delegation with the highest standard and courtesy, highlighting the strong desire of both sides to enhance their strategic cooperation through this trip.
In China’s view, there is a close relationship between the Sino-U.S. strategic game and the Korean Peninsula issue, which is related to the Northeast Asia international cooperation system and the different strategic considerations between China and the United States. China hopes to reconcile the traditional friendship between China and the DPRK and the former blood alliance of both countries by strengthening bilateral communication, promote cooperation between North Korea and the international community to resolve the peninsula nuclear issue, and help North Korea integrate into the international community. If these issues reach a consensU.S., the relationship between the two countries is expected to show unprecedented development and lay the foundation for peace in Northeast Asia.
Beijing believes that the Korean Peninsula issue is an important strategic resource U.S.ed by the United States to squeeze China's development space. The United States is worried that it will not be able to prevent Chinese forces from reaching out to Northeast Asia. Therefore, Washington has U.S.ed the Korean Peninsula issue as a fulcrum to prevent China from extending its influence to Northeast Asia. The most effective way for China to get rid of U.S. strategic squeeze is to solve regional problems such as the Korean Peninsula issue. If this can be achieved, China will not only obtain the historical opportunity to construct a Northeast Asian cooperation system but also eliminate the legitimate reasons for the U.S. involvement in Northeast Asian affairs.
With this visit, Xi Jinping tries to tell the United States that the Korean Peninsula affairs will be firmly in the hands of Beijing and that it is impossible for the United States to pU.S.h China out of Northeast Asia. This is a demonstration gesture that Xi Jinping showed to Trump.
Second, Xi Jinping wanted to urge Kim Jong-un to reach a consensU.S. with China on the DPRK nuclear issue during the visit. BecaU.S.e the resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue is the key to deepening and expanding China-DPRK relations and advancing the peace process on the peninsula. For a long time, there has been a significant gap in the development concept and path between China and the DPRK, which has led to a colder and even hostile relationship between the two countries. Firstly, the two countries have policy asymmetry, and China's reform and opening up is in stark contrast to North Korea's self-restraint. Secondly, the DPRK nuclear issue has caU.S.ed China-DPRK relations and the security of countries in the region to be in trouble, leading to the collision of the strategic line between China and the DPRK. The two sides now feel that their relationship should be elevated to a higher level to achieve their respective and common strategic goals. This is one of the implications of Xi Jinping's visit to the DPRK.
Beijing expects that through the visit, China and the DPRK will begin to touch the sensitive problems of nuclear abandonment. For example, North Korea will gradually submit a nuclear weapons list to China. The DPRK nuclear issue is the bottleneck of the Northeast Asian regional issue. China will inevitably U.S.e Xi Jinping's visit to the DPRK to promote the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This will include the resumption of the denuclearization negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK. This is also an attempt by Beijing to U.S.e the "China factor" to facilitate the third meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un.
The peninsula's nuclear abandonment issue is a relatively hopeful scoring project in Trump's re-election this and next year. If Xi Jinping can reach an absolute consensU.S. with Kim Jong-un on the DPRK nuclear issue and create conditions for the next meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un, it is undoubtedly a gift for Trump.
However, due to the significant differences between China and the DPRK on nuclear abandonment, people should not expect too much from the results of Xi Jinping's visit. In addition, Beijing's steps and methods of abandoning nuclear power to North Korea are also far from those of the United States. On the issue of North Korea's abandonment of the nuclear program, China's role is limited. North Korea's primary concern is not the attitude of China but the stance of the United States. The United States will not easily sign a peace agreement with Pyongyang until North Korea completely abandons its nuclear weapons.
Therefore, Xi Jinping’s efforts may have a positive effect on the resumption of negotiations between the U.S. and the DPRK, but it will not play a decisive role in North Korea’s abandonment of the nuclear program. China is also unlikely to impose a comprehensive economic blockade and sanctions on North Korea due to the DPRK nuclear issue. Beijing fears that this will lead to confrontation with Pyongyang and turmoil on the peninsula.
It can be said that Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea is an attempt to realize China's strategic goals in Northeast Asia in the context of the changing international situation: on the one hand, China is trying to counter the U.S. strategic squeeze and establish a Northeast Asian regional cooperation system centered on Beijing, and to express a strong will against U.S. bullying together with Pyongyang; on the other hand, China intends to promote a peaceful resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue, support the U.S.-DPRK nuclear negotiations and international organizations to promote denuclearization, help North Korea integrate into the international system, and incorporate it into China's alliance circle. Before Trump and Xi Jinping met in Japan, Beijing tried to reach a consensU.S. with North Korea on the issue of nuclear abandonment, which gives Trump a gift, increasing his chances of re-election, and let him make corresponding returns to China in trade negotiations. However, these efforts have limitations. The U.S. has its own goal, and it is impossible for Trump to completely follow the script of Xi Jinping.
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