Turkey’s Libya Problem

By Xander Snyder 

If it didn’t know it already, Turkey was reminded last week of the dangers posed by meddling in a war-torn country such as Libya. First, Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army, the eastern-based militia that opposes the internationally recognized Government of National Accord, threatened to fire on any Turkish ships approaching Libya’s territorial waters. Then, the LNA arrested (and later released) six Turkish sailors. Finally, the LNA said it destroyed a Turkish drone that was parked at the Tripoli airport. As you may have guessed, Turkey and the LNA are on opposite sides of the conflict. All this raises an obvious question: What is Turkey doing in Libya in the first place?

Its interests there are partly financial. Turkish companies are no strangers to investment in Libya. When the civil war started, for example, Turkish construction firms had an estimated $15 billion worth of deals in the country. These projects likely won’t be restarted in territory held by Haftar.

Its interests there also relate to energy. Turkey is increasingly pressing Cyprus, Greece, Israel and Egypt for access to natural gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean, and it believes having Libya united under a Turkey-backed government could increase its leverage in these negotiations.

But Turkey’s long-term interest in Libya concerns the long-standing regional competition between Turkey and Arab states in the Middle East. When Moammar Gadhafi’s government collapsed, several militias, including al-Qaida and later the Islamic State, vied to fill the ensuing power vacuum. Many of the Islamist militias, however, were affiliated with or supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, which also backs the GNA. Turkey