Martin Rees posted a July 19, 2019 article in the DailyMail with the title above. According to his Wikipedia biography, Dr. Rees is a British cosmologist and astrophysicist, and has been Astronomer Royal since 1995. Dr. Rees was Master of Trinity College, Cambridge from 2004-2012; and President of the Royal Society between 2005-2010.
Dr. Rees begins, “I never look at the Moon without being reminded of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin and of the day, 50 years ago today (July 20), when they left their first footprints on the dusty surface.”
“Along with hundreds of millions around the world, I watched [as did I] the grainy TV images of this historic moment,” Dr. Rees wrote. “I was then a young astronomer in Cambridge, where Fred Hoyle was the top professor. When I met Fred the next day, he was specially enthralled. He wrote science fiction, as well as doing brilliant science: he’d been anticipating this moment since his own childhood in the 1920s.”
“The exploit on July 20, 1969, seems ever more heroic in retrospect, when we realize how ‘primitive’ the technology was,” Dr. Rees wrote. “NASA’a entire suite of computers was less powerful than a single smartphone today. And, crucial equipment was untested — especially the Lunar Module that was supposed to blast the astronauts off the Moon’s surface for the return journey.”
“President Richard Nixon’s speechwriter, William Safire, had drafted a speech to be given, if a malfunction left them stranded:” “Fate has ordained that the men who went to the Moon to explore in peace, will stay on the Moon to rest in peace. [They] know there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope in mankind in their sacrifice.”
“In 1957, the USSR launched Sputnik-1, the first object to ever go into orbit around the Earth,” Dr. Rees reminds us. “This was followed by a capsule carrying a dog called Lakia; and then four years later, by Yuri Gagarin’s orbital flight. These Soviet successes — a correlate, of course, of Russian prowess in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles — caused alarm in the United States.”
“It was with the aim of catching up, and establishing American pre-eminence on the ‘high frontier’ of space, that in 1961, President Kennedy declared:” “I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before the decade is out, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to Earth. No single space project in this period will be more impressive to mankind, or more important in the long-range exploration of space.”
“The resultant Apollo program unleashed huge technological advances, and absorbed about 4 percent of the U.S. federal budget,” Dr. Rees wrote. “The first test-flight Apollo 1, in 1967, was a disaster. The spacecraft caught fire on the launch pad, killing its three astronauts. But, NASA achieved worldwide acclaim, Christmas, 1968, when Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times, before returning to Earth.”
“During these orbits, the astronauts read from The Book of Genesis and sent Christian messages to those on the ‘good Earth,’ Dr. Rees something — something that our politically correct society wouldn’t allow now, I’m sure. “And, Bill Anders took the famous ‘Earthrise’ photo — depicting our Earth and its continents, cloud, and blue oceans contrasting with the sterile moonscape in the foreground.”
Dr. Rees goes on to further explain the history and accomplishments of the Apollo program, and I refer you to his article in the DailyMail for his eloquent rendition.
Dr. Rees writes that he “believes the future of manned space-flight lies with privately-funded adventures, prepared to participate in a cut-price program far riskier than western nations could impose on publicly funded civilians. Space X, led by U.S. tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, has already docked with the International Space Station (ISS), and developed the techniques to reuse and recover the launch rocket first stage, presaging real cost savings. Space X and rival effort [Jeff Bezos’s] Blue Origin, will soon offer orbital flights to paying customers. These ventures bring a Silicon Valley culture into a domain long dominated by NASA and a few aerospace conglomerates.”
“However,” Dr. Rees wrote, “I think the term ‘space tourism’ should be avoided. It lulls people into thinking such ventures are genuinely safe. And, if that’s the perception, the inevitable accidents will be as traumatic as those of the Shuttle. Instead, these exploits may be ‘sold’ as dangerous sports, or intrepid exploration. By 2100, thrill seekers in the mold of say Ralph Fiennes, may have established bases on Mars.”
“But, don’t ever expect mass migration from Earth,” Dr. Rees contends.
Dr, Ress explains that he “disagrees with his late Cambridge colleague, cosmologist and theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking, and Elon Musk, who enthuse about rapid buildup of human colonies on Mars. It’s a dangerous delusion to think that space offers an escape from Earth’s problems. We’ve got to solve these here,” he argues. “Coping with climate change may seem daunting, but its doable compared to terraforming Mars. The fact is, there is no other place in our solar system that offers an environment even as clement as Antarctica, or the top of Everest.”
“There’s no ‘Planet B’ for ordinary risk-averse people,” Dr. Rees wrote. “We must cherish our Earthly home.”
“But we, (and our progeny here on Earth) should cheer on the brave space adventurers, because they will have a pivotal role in shaping what happens in the 22nd century and beyond,” Dr. Rees envisions. “This is why. The space environment is inherently hostile for humans. Being ill-adapted to their new habitat, the pioneer Martian explorers will have a more compelling incentive than those of us on Earth to redesign themselves. They’ll harness powerful genetic and cyborg technologies that will be developed in coming decades.”
“These techniques, one hopes, will be regulated on Earth, on prudential and ethical grounds,” Dr. Rees wrote.
“We should wish them good luck in modifying their progeny to adapt to alien environments,” Dr. Rees urges. “It’s these space-faring adventurers, not those of us comfortably adapted to life on Earth, who will spearhead the post-human era.”
“Finally, a word about the vast time-spans of the cosmos,” Dr. Rees wrote. “Our solar system is 4.5 billion years old. It’s taken most of that time for humans to evolve from the first life-forms. But, the Sun is less than halfway through its life. We’re a special species, but we’re not the culmination of evolution — maybe not even the halfway stage.”
“Organic creatures need a planetary surface environment, but if post-humans make the transition to inorganic (electronic) intelligence, they won’t need an atmosphere,” Dr. Rees wrote. “And, they may prefer zero-g (zero gravity), especially for constructing extensive, but lightweight habitats.”
“So, its in deep space, not on Earth, or even on Mars, that non-biological brains may develop powers that humans cannot [currently] imagine,” Dr. Rees wrote. “The timescales for technological advances are but an instant, compared to the timescales of the Darwinian natural selection that led to humanity’s emergence (and more relevantly) they are less than a millionth of the vast expanses of cosmic time lying ahead.”
“The outcome of this ‘secular intelligent design’ could spread through our galaxy, and surpass humans by as much as we (intellectually) surpass the slime mold,” Dr. Rees wrote. “But, even in this cosmic perspective, the first steps away from our Earthly home are epochal events in the history of our planet, so it’s right we should remember and celebrate the Apollo astronauts.”
The Next Great Leap Forward In Space
Peter Lloyd posted a June 11, 2019 article to the website of the DailyMail.com, “Babies Born Today Will Witness The First Human Colony On Mars, And Outposts On Other Planets Scientists Predict; What Will We Do In Space In The Next 100 Years? Why Interstellar Travel May Be Closer Than You Think.” Mr. Lloyd summarized a recent interview that astrophysicist Lewis Dartnell from the University of Westminster gave to Metro.co.uk. Dr. Dartnell said: “In the next 100 years, it is very feasible we will have a self-sustaining [human] colony on the moon, or Mars. These [colonies] could keep themselves going; and, serve as sort of a backup file, if we suffered some sort of apocalyptic event here on Earth. Mars is more likely a destination [than the Moon] because there’s more you can use — the Moon is closer, but its that much more barren.”
As Emily Lakdawalla wrote on the May 9, 2018 edition of the Nautilus, “Here’s What We’ll Do In Space By 2118,” “in a mere 60 years, we here on Earth have gone from launching our first spacecraft, to exploring every planet and major moon in our solar system, to establishing an international, long-lived fleet of robotic spacecraft at the Moon and Mars. What will we do in the next 100 years?,” she asks.
If we do manage to send humans to Mars, or any other planet, Ms. Lakdawalla predicts that the numbers will be small. “The fact is,” she wrote, “bringing humans safely to the surface of another massive planet, with a thin atmosphere — is mind-boggingly difficult. In order to do it,” she noted, “we’ll have to accomplish several other, slightly less difficult things first, like surviving long-duration space flights from Earth, somehow keeping our fragile DNA safe from cosmic rays and solar storms.”
“Farther out than the Moon and Mars, we’ll likely only see scientific, rather than human exploration for quite some time, until we get our robot bodies that is,” Ms. Lakdawalla wrote. “The distances are so great, that it will take decades, not years,to cruise from one destination to another. So, robots will be our eyes.”
Why Interstellar Travel May Be Closer Than You Think
Mark Jackson posted a June 18, 2017 article on the website, SingularityHub, speculating that interstellar travel may actually be closer than many of us think. Dr. Jackson is the Lead of Business Development at Cambridge Quantum Computing. Dr. Jackson writes about the Breakthrough Starshot Initiative. A very ambitious project that I have written about on this blog several times. Comparing the project to a “moonshot,” denoting a project” so outrageously ambitious, that it can only be described by comparing it to the Apollo 11 mission to land the first human/s on the Moon. Backed by Russian billionaire Yuri Milner, famed physicist Freeman Dyson, as well as the late theoretical physicist and cosmologist, Stephen Hawking, “the aptly named project seeks to travel to the nearest stars,” in our solar system, Dr. Jackson wrote.
“While still early,” he wrote at the time, “the current vision is that thousands of wafer-sized chips, attached to large, silver light-sails, will be placed in Earth orbit and accelerated by the intense pressure of an intense, Earth-based laser hitting the light-sail. After just two minutes of being driven by the laser, the spacecraft will be traveling at one-fifth the speed of light — a thousand times faster than any macroscopic object has ever achieved.”
“Each craft will coast for twenty years, and collect scientific data about interstellar space,” Dr. Jackson wrote. “Upon reaching the planets near the Alpha Centauri star system, an on-board digital camera will take high-resolution pictures, and send them back to Earth, providing the first glimpse of our closest planetary neighbors. In addition to scientific knowledge, we may learn whether these planets are suitable for human colonization.”
10 Key Starshot Technologies & How They Are Expected To Advance Over The Next Two Decades
Mr. Milner has pledged $100 million of his own money and is seeking contributions totally $10B to see the Starshot initiative reach its potential. Dr. Jackson highlighted eleven key technological advancements in the next twenty years that will play a big role in the Starshot project. They are:
1) Exoplanet Detection: As Dr. Jackson explained, “an exoplanet is a planet outside our Solar System.” Humankind discovered the first exoplanet in 1988; and, that total now exceeds 3,600 and counting. “While some of them resemble planets in our Solar System, many have fascinating and bizarre features, such as rings 200 times wider than Saturn’s,” he wrote. “The reason for this deluge of discoveries?,” he asks. “A vast improvement in telescope technology;
2) Launch Cost: “The Starshot mothership will be launched aboard a rocket; and will eventually release a thousand starships,” to explore the known universe Dr, Jackson wrote. The privatization of space, Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin, are finding innovative ways to drive down the costs of space launch vehicles. Driving down these costs will free up additional cash that can be reinvested in other goals of the project.
3) The Starship: “Each 15 millimeter-wide Starship must contain a vast array of sophisticated electronic devices, such as a navigation system, camera, communication laser, radioisotope battery, camera multiplexer, and camera interface,” Dr. Jackson noted. “The expectation [is] we’ll be able to compress an entire spaceship onto a small wafer is due to exponentially decreasing chip and sensor sizes. For Starshot to succeed, we’ll need the chip’s mass to be about 0.22 grams by 2030; but, if the rate of improvement continues, projections suggests this is possible,” he noted;
4) The Light-Sail: “The sail must be made of material which is highly reflective (to gain maximum momentum from the laser), minimally absorbing (so that it is not incinerated from the heat) and also very light weight(allowing quick acceleration),” Dr. Jackson explained. “There three criteria are extremely restrictive; and at present, there is no satisfactory material. The required advances may come from artificial intelligence, automating and accelerating materials discovery,” he noted.
5) Energy Storage: “While the Starship will use a tiny, nuclear radioisotope battery for its 24 year-plus journey, we still need conventional chemical batteries for the lasers,” Dr. Jackson explains. “The lasers will need to employ tremendous energy in a short span of time, meaning that power must be stored in nearby batteries. Battery storage has been improving at about 5-8 percent per year,” he adds. And, if battery storage continues to improve at this pace gong forward, “in 20 years they should have three to five times their [current] capacity. Continued innovation is expected to be driven from Tesla’s Solar City’s big investment in battery technology.”
6) Lasers: “Thousands of high-powered lasers will be used to propel the light-sail to extraordinary speeds,” Dr. Jackson predicts. “Lasers have obeyed Moore’s Law at a nearly identical rate to integrated circuits the cost-per-power ratio halving every 18 months. In particular,” he notes, “the last decade has seen a dramatic acceleration in power scaling of diode and fiber lasers, the former breaking through 10 kilowatts from a single mode fiber in 2010, and the 100-kilowatt barrier a few months later. In addition to the raw power, we will also need to make advances in combing phased array radars.”
7) Speed: Reaching the nearest star system, which is four light-years away — in any reasonable time frame, is going to require breathtaking speed. “While accelerating subatomic particles to nearly light speed is routine in particle accelerators, never before has this been achieved for macroscopic objects,” Dr. Jackson wrote. Achieving 20 percent speed of light for Starshot would represent 1000x speed increase for any human-built objects.”
8) Memory Storage: “Fundamental to computing is the ability to store information,” Dr. Jackson noted. “Starshot depends on the decreasing cost, and size of digital memory, to include sufficient storage for its programs, and its images of Alpha Centuari star system and its planets.”
9) Telecommunication: Once images of the Alpha Centuari star system are taken, Starshot will send the images back to Earth for examination and study. “The bandwidth and speed required for Starshot to send digital images over 4 light-years — or 20 trillion miles — will require taking advantage of the latest telecommunications technology,” Dr. Jackson wrote.
10) Computation: “The final step in the Starshot project is to analyze the data returning from the spacecraft,” Dr. Jackson wrote. “To do so, we must take advantage of the exponential increase in computing power, benefiting from the trillion-fold increase in computing power over the past 60 years. Extrapolating into the future and taking advantage of new types of processing, such as quantum computing, we should see another thousand-fold increase in power by the time the data from Starshot returns.
It is awesome to consider what babies born today — are going to learn and see, about the vast universe in which we live. Are they the generation that will make contact, or discover intelligent life elsewhere in the universe; or, will they move closer to concluding that humankind is alone, and a true anomaly? Or, that we are living in a matrix or — that multiple alternate universes and dimensions exist? The journey…..should be a hell of a ride. RCP, fortunascorner.com.
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