Suzanne Maloney
The slow-motion crisis between Iran and the United States picked up tempo this week with Tehran’s announcement that it will soon defy restrictions set by the 2015 nuclear deal on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium. Tehran’s first major step away from the nuclear accord since the United States exited the deal in 2018 comes in the wake of a series of attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf, as well as missile and drone strikes directed at Saudi and Emirati infrastructure and American presence in Iraq. The latest spasm of violence played out even as the Japanese prime minister left Tehran empty-handed after a mediation effort apparently encouraged by President Trump.
Iran’s impending breach of the nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) and the attacks in the Gulf reflect the increasing desperation of Iranian leaders as the stranglehold of sanctions reimposed by Trump intensifies. This is not simply knee-jerk Iranian counterpunching; rather, the rising tensions are an acknowledgement that Iran cannot afford a protracted impasse, with uncertain hopes of economic relief from some future U.S. administration. Facing an economic abyss and anticipating consequent domestic political fallout, Tehran has recently begun to cast aside its self-imposed restraint and test the world’s response to calibrated reprisals. The only surprise is that Iran’s vengeance has taken so long and—until this month—amounted to so little.
Iran is now injecting a sense of urgency within the international community around devising a pathway out of its simmering standoff with Washington. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, recently explained that negotiating from a position of weakness is a trap, and the only recourse for a country under U.S. pressure is to utilize its own “pressure tools” to induce Washington to alter its approach. Escalation is a dangerous way to accrue leverage, but Tehran is well versed in using provocation to gain advantage.
The images of burning tankers in the world’s most important energy corridor has stoked fears that the United States and Iran are on a collision course. There is legitimate cause to worry that neither side has the skill—or the will—to avert a conflict. The stakes are high, but it’s not too late to forestall yet another catastrophic American military intervention in the Middle East. The latest skirmishing underscores the risks of what has become a strategic impasse between Washington and Tehran, one that will end in disaster for both sides if they continue along their current strategies. And for all the rhetorical fulminations and engrained animosity, influential constituencies on both sides would prefer to avoid a confrontation. The challenge now is to temper nerves and begin to develop a realistic framework for diplomacy.
A PREDICTABLE TIT-FOR-TAT
The latest incidents mark a dangerous new escalation in the simmering standoff between the United States and Iran, puncturing a full year of relative calm that prevailed around Iran even as Washington upended the nuclear pact in 2018 and launched a full-frontal assault on Iran’s economy. The U.S. campaign has intensified significantly since early May, as the White House abruptly ratcheted up efforts to halt Iranian oil exports, designated its elite military force as a foreign terrorist organization, unveiled new sanctions targeting Iran’s steel and petrochemical industries, revoked some permissions necessary for Iran to continue complying with the nuclear deal, and pointedly bolstered U.S. military posture in the Gulf.
In the wake of those moves, tensions mounted quickly with a series of incidents that included attacks on oil vessels and pipeline infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the emergency departure of some U.S. diplomats from Iraq, reports that the White House was reviewing military options for Iran, a rocket attack on the “green zone” near the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, and a missile strike on a Saudi airport by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels that wounded 26 civilians. This week, several sites in Iraq that house American and Iraqi personnel have been struck by rockets or mortars, including several military bases and a U.S. oil company facility. Trump has used his itchy Twitter fingers to respond, warning in mid-May that any conflict would mean “the official end of Iran,” and the administration has incrementally expanded U.S. deployments to the region in response to the series of attacks.
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