By Marc Champion
Here’s one vision of the future: In half the world, driverless cars built by Baidu and connected by Huawei’s 5G wireless service carry residents who shop online with Alibaba and post selfies with WeChat. In the other half, those activities are dominated by companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Tesla and Ericsson. On one side, the internet is tightly controlled;on the other, it’s far freer. For some policy makers and academics, the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China are pointing toward a “Cold War 2.0,” one fought for technological, rather than nuclear or ideological, dominance. It’s a prospect fraught with danger, fueled by hawks on both sides. Yet it would require so complete a dismantling of the global supply chains and networks that have underpinned China’s astounding growth in particular, that many believe any new Cold War won’t end up looking like the last.
The Situation
Adding to the tensions in an escalating trade war, U.S. President Donald Trump barred companies deemed a national security threat from selling to the U.S. and blocked Huawei Technologies Co. from buying essential components. The move could cripple China’s largest technology company but also accelerate Beijing’s drive for technological self-sufficiency. The salvo came after months of efforts by the U.S. to convince other countries to avoid using Huawei for new 5G networks. In December, Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer, on U.S. charges of violating sanctions limiting trade with Iran, triggering a retaliatory arrest. China already made it hard for foreign companies to operate there, but now the Trump administration has proposed a new, Cold War-reminiscent export control regime to restrict the transfer of cutting-edge U.S. technologies, from artificial intelligence, or AI, to quantum computing. Trump also signed an order giving priority to research on AI amid fears that the U.S. might fall behind in a technology with military as well as commercial significance. Meanwhile, decisions by Vietnam and Thailand to adopt tough cybersecurity laws modeled on China’s appeared to confirm a gradual division of the global internet into zones of governance.
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