Good Intelligence: Equally Important For Governments And Businesses

Mark Lyall Grant

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The importance of good intelligence in decision making has been recognised since the earliest times. In the Bible (Numbers 13) God said to Moses in advance of the Exodus: ‘send some men to explore the land of Canaan… how many people are there and how strong are they? Are the towns fortified? Bring back examples of their fruits’. 

Likewise, Sun Tzu, the great Chinese general who wrote the Art of War in about 500 BC, was a great believer in Intelligence to avoid military casualties: ‘what enables the wise sovereign and good general to strike and conquer and achieve things beyond ordinary men is foreknowledge’. 

Today, the world is much more complex than it was in Sun Tzu’s time. Tensions between competing world powers are again on the increase. So called Hybrid Warfare (including use of weapons such as cyber, drones and trade sanctions) has blurred the traditional line between war and peace. Misinformation campaigns and so-called “Fake news” have blurred the lines between truth and falsehood. Terrorist groups, deniable cyber warriors and mercenaries have blurred the lines between state and non-state actors. 

It is therefore not surprising that, in this more ambiguous, greyenvironment, good intelligence is of even greater value now than it was in the time of Moses. Governments in particular rely heavily on their intelligence services, not only to fulfil their primary duty to protect their citizens but also to ensure the economic prosperity of their country. 

I saw this at first hand when I was National Security Adviser to British Prime Ministers David Cameron and Theresa May and had oversight of the UK’s three main Intelligence agencies - MI5, MI6 and GCHQ. The combined intelligence collection and analytical capabilities in the UK are amongst the most skilled in the world. Whether the weekly National Security Council was scheduled to discuss updating the counter terrorism strategy, cyber threats, airport security, money laundering, the conflict in Syria or the UK’s relationship with China or Russia, an assessment of relevant intelligence would be prepared in advance by the Joint Intelligence Committee and presented at the meeting. This intelligence assessment constituted a critical input to enable Ministers to take policy decisions based on the best possible information. 

Unfortunately, history is littered with examples where decisions have beentaken on the basis of insufficient or inaccurate intelligence (e.g. the 2003 Iraq war) or not taken as a result of the lack of actionable intelligence (e.g.Pearl Harbor or the 9/11 attacks). Both can have disastrous consequences. That is why being able to access, and evaluate, relevant intelligence is so important. 

This reality is just as true for multinational corporates and international entrepreneurs as it is for governments. Take India as an example. 

900 million Indians will start voting next week in the largest election in history. With a GDP of $2.3 trillion, a huge consumer market, a rapidly expanding middle class and a booming corporate sector with cutting edge technological expertise, India has become a magnet for international conglomerates and investors to enter or grow their existing operations, either through sole operations or in the form of partnerships with local players. 

Walmart’s $16 billion acquisition of a majority stake in Indian e-commerce company Flipkart, Schneider’s purchase of Larsen & Taubo for $2.1 billion and Vodafone’s merger with Ideal Cellular are just a few of themassive transactions that have taken place over the last 12 months. 

But there is another side to the story. In India, as in many emerging markets, it can be difficult for outsiders to separate the intertwined threads of politics, family, business, ethnicities, national and personal interests which form part of the local corporate culture. For instance, Anil Ambani has recently been accused of receiving a sweetheart defence deal in connection with India’s $8bn acquisition of Rafale fighter jets; Gautam Adani’s acquisition of contracts to operate five airports despite an apparent lack of previous aviation experience has raised local eyebrows; and Vijay Mallya is facing a number of charges relating to financial irregularities at Kingfisher Airlines. 

A country of 1.4 billion people, 29 states with 7 union territories where 22  major languages are spoken and 13 different scripts are written in over 700 dialects, India is now one of key battle fields for international corporates and entrepreneurs. And, just as it is for their own Governments, the key to success is to have the necessary foreknowledge and intelligence insights to enable decision makers to manage reputational risk and to devise an effective business strategy.