In its 2019 Annual Forecast, Stratfor noted that the Sea of Azov would emerge as a key front in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia — writing that both countries would bolster naval assets in the area, with the United States weighing in through additional security support for Ukraine. A recent meeting between Ukrainian and NATO defense officials, along with upcoming sanction decisions against Russia related to the Sea of Azov, point to the growing importance of this front.
What Happened
Ukrainian Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak met with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and other NATO officials Feb. 14 in Brussels to discuss security issues related to the Black Sea. Following the meeting, Poltorak announced that NATO would significantly increase its presence in the Black Sea this year to help Ukraine improve its defense capabilities in the area, including "troops training, modern weapons and development of military infrastructure." He also added that "special attention will be paid to naval and air force capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
Why It Matters
The Sea of Azov and broader Black Sea area have been the site of escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia since a confrontation between the two countries in November 2018. The standoff has enabled Ukraine to elicit greater political support from the West in recent months, particularly when it comes to increasing sanctions pressure on Russia. There are growing signs that both the European Union and the United States will pass greater sanctions against Russia over the Sea of Azov standoff with Ukraine, including individual sanctions on Russian security officials involved in the impasse, as well as restrictions on Russia's shipbuilding sector. The EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to discuss increasing such sanctions on Feb. 18, while the United States has floated its own sanctions package partially related to the matter as well.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin recently warned that U.S. plans to hold naval drills with Ukraine in the Black Sea represent "a dangerous idea," which suggests tensions in the region will heat up in the coming months.
The Sea of Azov standoff has also driven greater security support from NATO countries to Ukraine, as evidenced by visits from NATO vessels to country's ports on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian defense minister's recent meeting with NATO officials indicates that this support will now include more active involvement in joint NATO-Ukrainian naval exercises in the Black Sea, as well as increased deployments in, and weapons deliveries to, Ukraine.
These expanded actions will increase the likelihood of additional confrontations between Ukraine and Russia in the Sea of Azov and greater Black Sea area, which could, in turn, escalate the broader conflict in eastern Ukraine. Indeed, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin recently warned that the United States' plans to hold naval drills with Ukraine in the Black Sea represent "a dangerous idea," which suggests tensions in the region will heat up in the coming months.
Background
On Nov. 25, Russia seized three Ukrainian ships and detained 24 Ukrainian sailors in a standoff on the Sea of Azov. Leading up to the confrontation, Moscow had been intercepting Ukrainian ships in the area following Ukraine's announcement in September 2018 that it would build a naval base in Berdyansk by the end of the year. The Ukrainian sailors remain detained in Russia.
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