By Aseef Raihan
On December 20th, President Trump called for the withdrawal of 50% of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. This would be catastrophic not only for Afghanistan but for U.S. and allied interests worldwide. We are in an unprecedented moment in the war and the brink of the first possible for peace in the nation. However, if the U.S. decides to withdraw prematurely, we would repeat the same foreign policy mistake that has plagued us in the Middle East since 2001.
For better or for worse, the U.S. invaded Iraq in March 2003 as part of the War on Terror. The war dragged on for eight years, and in December 2011, the last U.S. troops left Iraq before the country had stabilized. In the power vacuum left in our absence, ISIS took over. By January 2014, they took Fallujah. That summer, they took Mosul. In June, an American-led coalition had to recommit troops to Iraq. It has been three and a half years since that recommitment, and we still have troops in Iraq.
For better or for worse, NATO intervened militarily in Libya in March 2011. By October of that year, Muammar Gaddafi was killed by Libyan forces. Before things settled, NATO forces withdrew. In the instability and chaos created by the power vacuum left behind, Libya became, and indeed still is, a hotbed for terrorist activity. Since 2015, the U.S. has been conducting airstrikes on terrorist leadership and training camps in the country.
For better or for worse, following the 9/11 attacks and the Taliban’s refusal to hand over Osama bin Laden, the U.S. and the U.K. invaded Afghanistan. Within three months, the Taliban-led government fell, however, not all of the Taliban and al-Qaeda forces had been killed or captured. Instead, these forces fled across the border into the ungoverned tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. Instead of increasing pressure on the terrorists’ networks, the decision by then-President George W. Bush and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to limit our involvement to a “modest footprint” further contributed to the resurgence of the Taliban. This decision would prove to be catastrophic as we are still fighting them over seventeen years later.
The lessons of U.S. foreign policy since 2001 ought to be painfully obvious: withdrawing forces before achieving stability creates a power vacuum that leads to future problems and continued U.S. and allied involvement.
The war in Afghanistan has passed its seventeenth birthday; it can drive in all fifty states, it is past the age of consent in most, and it can drink in Europe. In all this time, we have not achieved peace. What is the way forward? Is it time to call this war a sunk cost and bring our troops home? We are currently closer to peace “than at any time in recent memory” according to a report published by the Department of Defense this month. The Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan report states that the reason that 41 nations have troops in Afghanistan (27 NATO allies and 14 operational partner nations) is singularly “to prevent it from becoming a safe-haven from which terrorist groups can plan and execute attacks.” We know that al-Qaeda planned, operated, and attacked us from under the safety of the Taliban. This is a mission of self-defense.
As the war stands currently, the Taliban have conceded that they will not win militarily. To our end, the commanding general in Afghanistan, General Scott Miller also admitted the same. As distasteful as it sounds, this war must end with a political settlement that sees reconciliation and reintegration of the Taliban into Afghan society and government. It is the only possible way forward. To that objective, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation (SRAR), Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, was appointed in September to bring all parties to the negotiating table and discuss the path toward peace. The DoD report goes on to say that increased “military pressure on the Taliban, international calls for peace, and the new SRAR’s engagement appears to be driving the Taliban to negotiations.” Meaning: our policy is working. After seventeen long years in Afghanistan, we finally have a credible strategy that is bringing the Taliban to the peace table.
President Obama received much criticism for establishing a pullout date for forces in Afghanistan. This criticism was justified. Since the Taliban knew the U.S. would be leaving, they simply needed to bide their time and wait us out. Now, when there is a real chance for peace, President Trump is repeating the mistake of his predecessors. If half the U.S. force is withdrawn before a negotiated peace, the Taliban need only be patient instead of negotiating. The offer to remove 7,000 troops would have made for a great bargaining chip in negotiations, instead of being unilaterally announced.
Resolute Support Mission Troop-Contributing Nations, as of November 2018
NATO
If the Trump administration follows through on this decision, it removes nearly all Taliban incentive to negotiate, practically guaranteeing a Taliban takeover after our departure. The Afghan/Pakistani branch of ISIS, ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISIS-K), also stands to gain in the event of a power vacuum created by a U.S. drawdown. The future consequences of this decision are not clouded in tea leaves. It is a clear glass of water.
For the first time, the Afghan elections this past October along with “increased diplomatic efforts, and social and religious pressure on the Taliban [over the last few months] have generated optimism within the Afghan government and the [Afghan National Defense & Security Forces] that a durable and inclusive settlement with the Taliban is possible.” The next line is critical. According to the DoD, “the key to success remains sustained military pressure against the Taliban. By convincing the Taliban that they cannot win on the battlefield, and credibly committing to a conditions-based strategy, we have greatly increased the odds of concluding a settlement on terms favorable to the United States and Afghanistan.” It is clear that withdrawing troops from Afghanistan is the wrong move. Now is the time for political peace.
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