Indian Strategic Studies: 08/14/18

14 August 2018

India's Strategic Roadmap

by T. V. Paul

In recent years, India has developed multiple strategies to deal with China’s rise and threatening postures on both its land border and in the Indian Ocean. They include limited balancing based on asymmetrical arms buildups and informal coalitions with like-minded states and regular diplomatic engagement with Beijing both bilaterally and through multilateral forums. But the most significant non-traditional soft balancing efforts have been in building limited strategic partnerships with the United States and Japan as well as participation in ASEAN Forums, along with other regional groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The strategy is also based on institutional denial by not agreeing to China’s membership in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and, most prominently, refusing to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). There have been some efforts at creating counter economic cooperation initiatives with regional states as alternatives to BRI. The Africa Growth Corridor with Japan was planned in 2017 as a limited alternative to BRI, although it is yet to take full shape.

How the River Ganges can really be rejuvenated

By HIMANSHU THAKKAR

The Ganges remains one of the most polluted rivers in the world, despite being a key lifeline for half a billion people in the South Asian subcontinent. In India, pollution in the river and problems with year-around flow have persisted despite decades of government initiatives. In 2014, the newly elected government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched a massive 200 billion rupee (US$2.9 billion) Namami Gange Program for “integrated conservation” of the river, also known as Ganga, with two main objectives: cleaning the river and ensuring year-around flow. Four years down the road, however, there has been little success in rejuvenating the ailing river.

Brazen Taliban attack raises pressure on Afghan forces

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — A brazen and bloody overnight assault Friday by the Taliban on a key provincial capital in central Afghanistan has increased pressure on U.S.-backed Afghan forces that are withering under relentless attacks, prompting President Ashraf Ghani to call an emergency meeting of his security officials.

As Trump cracks down on Pakistan, U.S. cuts military training programs

Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart

ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s administration has quietly started cutting scores of Pakistani officers from coveted training and educational programs that have been a hallmark of bilateral military relations for more than a decade, U.S. officials say. The move, which has not been previously reported, is one of the first known impacts from Trump’s decision this year to suspend U.S. security assistance to Pakistan to compel it to crack down on Islamic militants. The Pentagon and the Pakistani military did not comment directly on the decision or the internal deliberations, but officials from both countries privately criticized the move.

16 US Senators seek to block IMF bailouts for China’s Allies including Pakistan

A cross-party group of 16 US senators has urged the Trump administration to block the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from bailing out the countries that have obtained loans from China under its infrastructure development plan. The letter to Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin mentions Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Djibouti among the countries that have accepted billions of dollars in loans from China but are unable to repay. “We write to express our concern over bailout requests to the IMF by countries who have accepted predatory Chinese infrastructure financing,” the senators wrote.

Blind Fools: US commander says no need for major change in Afghan war plan

WASHINGTON (AP) — A year after the Trump administration unveiled a broad new strategy for the 17-year war in Afghanistan, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East said he doesn’t expect any major change in the strategy to end the conflict as a new general takes over the campaign. Army Gen. Joseph Votel told reporters that the campaign to use military, social and political pressure to force the Taliban to the peace table is still valid. Incoming Afghanistan commander Army Gen. Scott Miller will make his own assessment of the war’s progress, Votel said, but while he may make tactical changes on the ground fight, “I don’t think that that will result in a relook at the strategy of the overall approach here.”

Counterproductive Counterterrorism in Afghanistan and Yemen

by Paul R. Pillar

Fighting terrorism has been the most commonly invoked rationale for U.S. involvement in overseas military conflicts during the past two decades. But much of that involvement has sustained and strengthened, rather than weakened, international terrorism. Recent news from two places, Yemen and Afghanistan, illustrates one dimension of the problem. The principal player in international terrorism with a role in Yemen is Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, or AQAP. This branch of Al Qaeda has come closer than any other since 9/11 to pulling off a successful high-casualty attack against U.S. targets. Within the current Yemeni civil war, AQAP operates on the side of the line dominated by the U.S.-backed coalition of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Supposedly that coalition has devoted some of its effort to attacking AQAP, rather than what it considers its main adversary, which is the Houthi force that holds much of northern and western Yemen. But a remarkably detailed piece of investigative reporting by a team of Associated Press journalists tells a different story.

Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on 4 Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’

By Rod Nordland, Fahim Abed and Mujib Mashal

Aug. 12, 2018

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghan government forces lost more than 200 officers and soldiers in fighting over the past three days as Taliban insurgents launched sustained attacks on four different fronts.

The hardest-hit area was the southeastern city of Ghazni, where more than 100 police officers and soldiers had been killed by Sunday, a hospital official said, and the insurgents appeared to be in control of most of the strategic city aside from a few important government facilities.

Ninety miles west, in Ghazni Province, the Taliban seized control of the Ajristan District. The elite army commando unit that had been defending the district disappeared for two days, and their superiors were uncertain of their fate. When they found out on Sunday, estimates of the dead ranged from 40 to 100. Twenty-two survivors were carried to safety on donkeys by rescuers who found them lost in the mountains.

In Faryab Province, 250 miles to the northwest, an isolated Afghan National Army base of 100 soldiers lost more than half of its men in a Taliban assault that ended early Sunday morning. The defenders said they did not expect to last another night.

And 275 miles east of the Faryab base, in northern Baghlan Province, at a base at Jangal Bagh on the strategic highway between Pul-i-Kumri and Kunduz, insurgents killed seven policemen and nine soldiers and captured three other soldiers on Saturday.

With the tempo of the Afghan conflict steadily increasing, it was a bad few days for the Afghan government. The fighting has demonstrated that the insurgents have a capacity for carrying out ambitious operations on multiple fronts, while the government has struggled to respond on a single front in Ghazni.

Taliban Continue to Hold Most of the City of Ghazni in Afghanistan

Taliban Kill More Than 200 Afghan Defenders on 4 Fronts: ‘a Catastrophe’

Rod Nordland, Fahim Abed and Mujib Mashal

New York Times,

August 12, 2018

KABUL, Afghanistan — Afghan government forces lost more than 200 officers and soldiers in fighting over the past three days as Taliban insurgents launched sustained attacks on four different fronts.

The hardest-hit area was the southeastern city of Ghazni, where more than 100 police officers and soldiers had been killed by Sunday, a hospital official said, and the insurgents appeared to be in control of most of the strategic city aside from a few important government facilities.

Ninety miles west, in Ghazni Province, the Taliban seized control of the Ajristan District. The elite army commando unit that had been defending the district disappeared for two days, and their superiors were uncertain of their fate. When they found out on Sunday, estimates of the dead ranged from 40 to 100. Twenty-two survivors were carried to safety on donkeys by rescuers who found them lost in the mountains.

In Faryab Province, 250 miles to the northwest, an isolated Afghan National Army base of 100 soldiers lost more than half of its men in a Taliban assault that ended early Sunday morning. The defenders said they did not expect to last another night.

And 275 miles east of the Faryab base, in northern Baghlan Province, at a base at Jangal Bagh on the strategic highway between Pul-i-Kumri and Kunduz, insurgents killed seven policemen and nine soldiers and captured three other soldiers on Saturday.

With the tempo of the Afghan conflict steadily increasing, it was a bad few days for the Afghan government. The fighting has demonstrated that the insurgents have a capacity for carrying out ambitious operations on multiple fronts, while the government has struggled to respond on a single front in Ghazni.

Daily Memo: Debates in China, Alliances in Asia, Crises in Turkey

All the news worth knowing today.

Are the Chinese Communist Party’s (very public) differences reconcilable? On Thursday, a top official at the People’s Bank of China published an article saying that the Finance Ministry has not done enough to improve the Chinese economy. On Friday, Beijing’s biggest mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, published an op-ed touting the success of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s sweeping deleveraging campaign – a critical reform for China, but one that some believe will be too painful to pursue once the trade war takes its toll. Most interesting, the People’s Daily published another piece taking aim at critics at home who argue that Beijing’s increasing assertiveness on several fronts – from the South China Sea to the economic realm – is at least partly to blame for the growing international backlash against China.

Rebalancing China and Bracing for the Trade War

It has been 40 years since Deng Xiaoping launched China’s “reform and opening up” policy. By most metrics, China’s economic “miracle” has indeed been nothing short of preternatural, with some 800 million people rising out of poverty over the span of just a few generations and the country becoming an indispensable part of the global economy. But this growth happened neither evenly nor sustainably, and it’s running out of the sort of low-hanging fruits that fueled China’s rise.

China’s New Missile Force: New Ambitions, New Challenges (Part 1)

By: Adam Ni, Bates Gill

At the end of 2015 the missile branch of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the Second Artillery Force (第二炮兵部队), was formally elevated to a full service and renamed the Rocket Force (火箭军; PLARF) part of a sweeping drive to improve the PLA’s joint operations, command and control, and combat effectiveness. The establishment of the PLARF signals the increasing importance of conventional and nuclear missiles to PLA warfighting and deterrence capabilities. It also foreshadows continued, substantial investment in missile force modernization at both tactical and strategic levels in the years ahead. Since its creation, the PLARF has made notable progress in upgrading missile capabilities, reorganizing command and control systems, developing realistic combat training for its troops, and growing its pool of talent. However, deep-seated challenges remain in all these areas. This two-part series will examine the rationale for the PLARF’s creation, its mission, and the challenges that stand in its way. The challenges are real, and could frustrate the PLARF’s aspiration of becoming a world-class missile force if not addressed effectively.

Mosque demolition: no religion is above law, says Chinese paper

Thousands of Hui people gathered at the towering Grand Mosque in Weizhou on Thursday and Friday to prevent authorities from demolishing the structure. A newspaper of the ruling Communist Party said Saturday that no religion is above the law in China, urging officials to stay firm while dealing with a rare protest over the planned demolition of a massive mosque in the northwest. The Global Times said that local officials in the town of Weizhou in Ningxia, a region that’s home to many ethnic minority Hui Muslims, must act against what it described as an illegal expansion of a religious building.

Measuring the status of Chinese military modernization

By WILLIAM HOLLAND

Economics remains the guiding linchpin in measuring the broad status of China’s military modernization efforts, but this effort should not be performed in isolation. If US combat commanders want to measure the strength and reach of China’s military power, they will need to assess three interlocking components of Beijing’s strategic mindset. First, proper characterization of Beijing’s current military strategy reveals a China interested in regional power projection. Its force-modernization efforts are guiding transformation efforts into a professionalized force with technologically advanced air and naval capabilities for sustained engagements. Initially aiming to project and protect regional national interests, Beijing invariably seeks to shape the decisions of competitors, parlaying with regional actors while shaping regional security architecture favorable to itself. This objective is achieved by fielding C4ISR (command, control, communication, computing, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) capabilities.

China’s air force quietly adds new J-16 fighter jets to ‘push the envelope’

Kristin Huang

China’s expanding line-up of multirole, all-weather J-16 fighter jets will help the air force to launch strikes deep into enemy territory and destroy key strategic assets like airfields and bridges, military analysts say. While it is not as advanced as the new J-20 – officially named Weilong, or powerful dragon – the Shenyang J-16 will become a key part of PLA Air Force operations and any strategy against Taiwan or to deter US military intervention, they said. China’s air force announced last week that a squadron of J-16s would soon be combat ready. Based on the Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jet, the J-16 was introduced around 2012 to 2013 but did not make its official debut until a year ago, during a military parade marking the 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. Powered by a Chinese WS-10 Taihang turbofan engine, the fighter jet has been compared to the US F-15A/C Eagle.

WHAT HAPPENS IF IRAN CLOSES WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT OIL ROUTE? PRICES RISE AND WAR LIKELY

BY TOM O'CONNOR

Iran has threatened to block access to the world's busiest oil route in response to U.S. sanctions designed to reduce the revolutionary Shiite Muslim power's petroleum exports to zero. While there has been no indication that Iran was prepared to go through with the warning, such a move would likely be catastrophic for the region and global energy prices.

The first batch of U.S. sanctions on Iran came into effect Monday, following President Donald Trump's withdrawal in May from a 2015 landmark nuclear deal between the two countries, as well as five other major powers. These sanctions include restrictions on Iran's manufacturing, aviation and automobile industries, but the next round on November 4 will specifically prohibit international companies from doing business with the country's oil and gas sector.

Crimea: A Bridgehead or a Barricade?

Pavel Luzin

What Russia's military spending on the Crimea says about the Kremlin's strategy on the Black Sea

Read Full Article »

Pence Makes Hard Sell For Trump’s Space Force by 2020

BY KATIE BO WILLIAMS

The administration wants a new military service branch, but space mission's future in the Pentagon and Congress is far from certain. The Trump administration officially rolled out its roadmap to create a U.S. Space Force, the first new military branch in over 70 years by 2020 — assuming Congress complies. Vice President Mike Pence unveiled a plan to ask Congress for the authority and funds to set up the U.S. Space Force as a sixth branch of the armed forces, calling the proposal “an idea whose time has come.” The Defense Department will kick into action a series of steps that it can take without Congress by the end of the year, including the creation of a new combatant command for space and new space war-fighting and weapons-buying units that will eventually become part of the Space Force. A draft of the plans were first reported by Defense One last week.

Germany faces its worst security dilemma since the 1950s

If Germany wants to be taken seriously by the United States and trusted in Europe, its leaders also need to get serious about conventional defense—and convince skeptical voters that this is necessary, and urgent. This piece by Constanze Stelzenmüller originally appeared in the Financial Times. “First we got the bomb and that was good/’Cause we love peace and motherhood/Then Russia got the bomb, but that’s OK/’Cause the balance of power’s maintained that way!/Who’s next?”

Russia and China’s Alliance of Convenience

By Jacob L. Shapiro

China and Russia conducted a six-day military exercise last week. The exercise simulated attacks on both countries from ballistic and cruise missiles. The Chinese Ministry of Defense declined to identify which country was the simulated aggressor in the exercise, but it’s not hard to figure out that it was the United States. A few days into the exercise, the Trump administration published its National Security Strategy. The document is 68 pages long, but one line in particular from the second page has been quoted endlessly in the media: “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests.” These two developments raise the same question: Is a Sino-Russian alliance emerging?

Artificial intelligence: Why a digital base is critical

By Jacques Bughin and Nicolas van

Early AI adopters are starting to shift industry profit pools. Companies need strong digital capabilities to compete. The diffusion of a new technology, whether ATMs in banking or radio-frequency identification tags in retailing, typically traces an S-curve. Early on, a few power users bet heavily on the innovation. Then, over time, as more companies rush to embrace the technology and capture the potential gains, the market opportunities for nonadopters dwindle. The cycle draws to a close with slow movers suffering damage.1

Stay current on your favorite topics

Japan, not Europe, is now the leader of free trade

By Hosuk Lee-Makiyama
Source Link

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama is director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels and specializes in digital trade and East Asia diplomacy. Europe has often been hailed as a global leader when it comes to trade and privacy, particularly after its passage of the General Data Protection Regulation, the European Union’s privacy law, which came into effect in May. And while it is no doubt a worthwhile endeavor to protect European citizens from illicit online surveillance, the landmark bill comes at a cost: it is a form of digital protectionism.

Looking Back on the Russian-Georgian War, 10 Years Later

By Eugene Chausovsky

Russia's invasion of Georgia in August 2008 gave it a new geopolitical foothold after decades of weakness in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse. The war paved the way for Russia to increase its influence throughout Eurasia, although the collapse of global oil prices and the Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine later demonstrated the limits of Moscow's reach. In the years since, Russia has maintained its clout on the world stage and revived its rivalry with the West, which, in turn, has redoubled its support for Georgia and other countries in the region.

One man's suffering exposed Monsanto's secrets to the world

Carey Gillam

It was a verdict heard around the world. In a stunning blow to one of the world’s largest seed and chemical companies, jurors in San Francisco have told Monsanto it must pay $289m in damages to a man dying of cancer which he claims was caused by exposure to its herbicides. Monsanto, which became a unit of Bayer AG in June, has spent decades convincing consumers, farmers, politicians and regulators to ignore mounting evidence linking its glyphosate-based herbicides to cancer and other health problems. The company has employed a range of tactics – some drawn from the same playbook used by the tobacco industry in defending the safety of cigarettes – to suppress and manipulate scientific literature, harass journalists and scientists who did not parrot the company’s propaganda, and arm-twist and collude with regulators. Indeed, one of Monsanto’s lead defense attorneys in the San Francisco case was George Lombardi, whose resumé boasts of his work defending big tobacco.

This Technology Is About to Change the World--But No One Is Talking About It

By Marc Emmer

5G is the ugly duckling of technology, yet it is the one that will radically change the world. According to the MIT Technology Review, 5G is a "technological paradigm shift, akin to the shift from the typewriter to the computer." While another reference to Moore's Law -- Gordon Moore's prediction that processing speeds would double about every 18 months at lower prices -- makes me want to heave, it remains true to form. 5G will represent the greatest leap in processing speed since computing began, and it's predicted that 5G will be a staggering twenty times faster than 4G.

The digital clash of cultures

By Nathan Gardels
Source Link

Our wired world is turning into a tangled web. Attempts to both exploit and regulate digital connectivity have revealed deeply rooted and distinctly different notions of where and how to draw the virtual boundaries of market access, citizen autonomy and privacy — even within the West. The sheer weight of China’s global economic gravity is pulling others into the invasive maw of its digital orbit. Japan sees the vaunted new privacy rules that challenge big tech’s abuses in Europe as online protectionism against its global companies. The well-meaning effort to debureaucratize the delivery of social services through biometric e-administration in India threatens to erase privacy instead. Google’s corporate vision of a smart city in Toronto has sparked a techlash by a local community that resists being digitally managed.

Why The Army’s New Palantir Contract Won’t Fix Battlefield Intelligence

By CAPT. IAIN J. CRUICKSHANK

Palantir has a great reputation for use on the battlefield, especially for counter-IED functions, and has attained an almost legendary status among some analysts and communities in the Army. When compared to the Distributed Common Ground System – Army (DCGS-A), its success is not surprising; most users of DCGS-A would agree that it is problematic. In particular, Palantir has a much friendlier user interface than DCGS-A, and its Gotham system is excellent at linking reports or other pieces of intelligence together. But Palantir’s Gotham system, the model for a new battlefield intelligence system, is susceptible to quickly becoming the next DCGS-A. Without some important changes, Palantir’s software will not satisfy battlefield intelligence needs and be doomed to repeat the failures of its predecessor.

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)