Indian Strategic Studies: 08/06/18

6 August 2018

Who’s afraid of Imran Khan’s Pakistan? Almost everyone.

By Mehreen Zahra-Malik

On Friday evening I drove back home to Islamabad after covering Pakistan’s July 25 general elections from the eastern city of Lahore. As I fumbled in my purse for my keys, the front door rattled and I heard footsteps on the other side.

“Madam, is someone else home?” my driver, Shaukat, asked. I live alone. I dialed the police emergency helpline and explained that someone was inside my house. Commandos brandishing automatic rifles soon arrived and entered my home, going from room to room, looking under beds and behind sofas. Nothing was missing. In the lounge, we found one window, which locks from the inside, open. One officer said that maybe the intruder had left through that window. “Or maybe some khalai makhlooq was here,” another one joked.

How will Imran Khan govern?

A WEEK after a general election rocked by suspicions of fraud, the dust is beginning to settle. It looks all but certain that Imran Khan, a former captain of Pakistan’s cricket team, will be sworn in as the country’s next prime minister. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), will dominate the legislature. The outgoing Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party cried foul, noting that the army had come out strongly in Mr Khan’s favour, muzzling the press and sending security agents to meddle in polling stations. But the fact that these two ancient rivals are now making common cause as the loyal opposition suggests that they accept the result. Few Pakistanis want endless street protests and political turmoil. So the democratic show rolls on. For the second time in Pakistani history, power has been democratically transferred.

Afghanistan Strategy: Few Tough Questions, Fewer Detailed Answers

Robert Cassidy

“The failure to solve the riddle of ISI and to stop its covert interference in Afghanistan became, ultimately, the greatest strategic failure of the American war.” – Steve Coll, Directorate S At the end of June, the U.S. Senate confirmed the nomination of the ninth American commander in Afghanistan and the 17th commander of that war overall. The U.S.-led coalition has been fighting there for 16 years and ten months. Senior commanders and political leaders have acknowledged the war is a stalemate. Years of Department of Defense reporting and senior leader hearings testify to the difficulties with the war and the reasons for the stalemate. Many open source articles and books explain why, what at first looked like, a successful war, with the Taliban taking flight, then saw the regeneration of the Taliban and the onset of a protracted war of attrition with increasingly grisly bombings and violence year after year. Civilians have been victims of much of the violence. A strategic stalemate after almost 17 years of war is disconcerting.

Southeast Asia: The Sum of Its Parts

Deep Dive

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations turns 50 this year, and at no point in its history has the region it represents been more attractive to outside powers or more indispensable to the global system than it is today. The 10-member bloc’s combined gross domestic product is on pace to reach nearly $3 trillion. It receives more investment than China, the country in whose shadow Southeast Asia has historically lived, and boasts a humming manufacturing sector manned by low-cost workers. Its position gives it stewardship over some of the world’s most prolific trade routes and makes it strategically valuable to navies vying for control of the increasingly crowded waters of the Western Pacific. It has become the front line in the competition between the United States and China. It is globally relevant in the fight against terrorism.

Can Buddhist Values Overcome Nationalism in Sri Lanka?

BARANA WAIDYATILAKE, MYRA SIVALOGANATHAN

Nine years since the end of its civil war, Sri Lanka continues to suffer from ethnic tensions that could derail its fragile transitional justice process and ignite new rounds of conflict. Despite the end of open hostilities, resentment continues to aggravate relations between the primarily Buddhist Sinhalese—Sri Lanka’s ethnic majority—and the minority community of Tamils. Tensions are also growing between Sinhalese Buddhists and the Muslim community, who constitute Sri Lanka’s second-largest ethnic minority. Sinhalese-Buddhist nationalism has been identified as a major driver of past conflicts and current tensions. Some attribute this nationalism to Sinhalese Buddhists’ insecurity about their lack of transnational networks of support, compared to their Tamil or Muslim compatriots. Such insecurity has been compounded by international criticism of the Sri Lankan state and expressions of sympathy toward Sri Lankan Tamils.

PLA's 91st anniversary: Xi Jinping's call for a strong army

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) marks its 91st anniversary on Wednesday (August 1) amid a far-reaching modernization program. By the mid-21st century, China's army will be "fully transformed into a world-class force," General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Xi Jinping pledged at the 19th CPC National Congress in October. The PLA is not only retaining its dedication to traditional requirements, but also building an elite combat force aided by advanced military technology.

"Unswervingly" back CPC

MODERN CHINESE WARPLANES: CHINESE NAVAL AVIATION – AIRCRAFT AND UNITS

By Lieutenant Commander David Barr, USN

In the introduction of his latest installment regarding modern Chinese combat aircraft, Andreas Rupprecht correctly assesses the rapid and expansive scope of Chinese air power modernization: “The amount of ‘recent changes’ especially in doctrine, training, and force structure are so numerous that they would easily surpass the available space within one volume, it was decided to separate the naval air component from the regular Air Force and Army Aviation.”1 His thoughtful and deliberate efforts paid off. In Modern Chinese Warplanes: Chinese Naval Aviation – Aircraft and Units, Rupprecht wisely focuses his efforts solely on Chinese naval aviation, and in the effort, masterfully delivers its stated purpose to “provide an extensively illustrated compact yet comprehensive directory, with in-depth analysis of the organization and equipment of modern Chinese naval air power.”2

Ethnic cleansing makes a comeback — in China

By Josh Rogin
Source Link

If ethnic cleansing takes place in China and nobody is able to hear it, does it make a sound? That’s what millions of Muslims inside the People’s Republic are asking as they watch the Chinese government expand a network of internment camps and systematic human rights abuses designed to stamp out their peoples’ religion and culture. Since last year, hundreds of thousands — and perhaps millions — of innocent Uighurs and other ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region in northwest China have been unjustly arrested and imprisoned in what the Chinese government calls “political re-education camps.” Thousands have disappeared. There are credible reports of torture and death among the prisoners. The government says it is fighting “terrorism” and “religious extremism.” Uighurs say they are resisting a campaign to crush religious and cultural freedom in China. The international community has largely reacted with silence.

Daily Memo: Bought Time in China, Lost Leverage in the US, Hard Times in Iran

Chinese leaders are buying time to fix the economy. Earlier this week, the Politburo issued its midyear guidance on Chinese economic policy. Since then, the central bank and the all-important Financial Stability and Development Commission have given the plan a bit more detail. The upshot: The sweeping reform drive should continue, but modest stimulus and other measures will be taken to ease the pain inflicted by reforms and trade wars. China is fighting a two-front war – against U.S. trade policy and against its own internal economic dysfunction – and it doesn’t want to halt reform unless it absolutely must, lest it lose on the latter front. But the U.S. tariffs are making it hard to win the former front. With no clear counterattack, this week’s policy guidance can best be described as treading water – at least until Beijing can understand how far the U.S. will push the issue and devise a more decisive plan to either find a way out of the trade war or see the fight through to the end. Notably, there’s speculation that the Chinese leadership’s annual summer retreat to the coastal resort town of Beidaihe has begun. It doesn’t sound like this year’s conclave will feature much fun in the sun.

Daily Memo: Taking Stock of the Trade War, Preventing Chinese Protests, Wargaming in Israel

The United States continues to escalate the trade war with China despite the damage it does at home. In the second week of July, the U.S. announced plans to add 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods. Now the government plans to bump these tariffs to 25 percent, the details of which will be included in the public hearing and comment phases later this month. The tariffs already in place are starting to hurt China, as Beijing sees weakening investment in factories, low household consumption and rising corporate defaults. (This is also a product of China’s credit squeeze, of course.) Some companies are reportedly thinking of leaving the country. Meanwhile, U.S. farmers are reporting losses despite $12 billion worth of compensation funding. The mayor of Los Angeles has said that the trade war has stunted growth, depressed local port cargo and cost the city some 200,000 jobs. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also warned that if the government were to extend financial aid packages to other affected sectors – steel, iron, fisheries, etc. – it would cost producers an additional $27 billion. One is reminded of the Sun Tzu quote about how no country ever benefited from a protracted war.

Daily Memo: Words and Deeds in the South China Sea, Oil in Iraq, Power in the US

Watch what states in the South China Sea do, not what they say. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations reached an agreement with China on a draft “code of conduct,” which lay the foundation for future talks on the disputed waters. Don’t expect much to come of this, even if a final agreement is ever struck. China’s goal is to keep everyone talking and to exploit the divisions endemic in ASEAN. There’s no reason to believe that China is prepared to make major concessions – or even that the code of conduct would be much different from the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea signed in 1992, which failed to alter the course of the standoff. More important is what’s happening on the ground – namely, that an agreement was struck between PetroVietnam and Japanese firms to sell natural gas from a block on the edge of China’s maritime claims. China is believed to have forced Hanoi to scrap a pair of drilling deals with European firms last year, and Vietnam has been desperate for support on the energy front. Notably, on Thursday, Vietnam held defense talks with India, which is increasingly becoming Hanoi’s most important defense partner, one that has been enhancing energy ties with Vietnam as well.

Economic warfare: Four takeaways from being in China when the trade war started

Aaron Klein
Source Link

I found myself in Shenzhen, China on July 6th, the day the Trump Administration fired the first shots in the U.S.-China Trade War. This was not planned. I had accepted an invitation months ago to speak at the Qianhai Cooperation Forum on the importance of integrating regional transportation and infrastructure planning and operations to promote smart growth. I had also begun a research project on the Chinese payment system which is evolving into a new system based on phones and QR codes, leapfrogging cards, magnetic stripes, and possibly the banking system. My trip was supposed to be a combination of this talk and payments research. However, instead, I found myself in China exactly when the Trump Administration imposed tariffs, which felt a little bit like being behind enemy lines the first day that shots are fired.

China’s Empire of Money Is Reshaping Global Trade

Xi Jinping’s new “Belt and Road” initiative is designed to promote economic development and extend China’s influence. Bloomberg Markets reports on the massive project’s impact along the Silk Road. China is building a very 21st century empire—one where trade and debt lead the way, not armadas and boots on the ground. If President Xi Jinping’s ambitions become a reality, Beijing will cement its position at the center of a new world economic order spanning more than half the globe. Already, China has extended its influence far beyond that of the Tang Dynasty’s golden age more than a millennium ago. The most tangible manifestation of Xi’s designs is the new Silk Road he first proposed in 2013. The enterprise morphed into the “Belt and Road” initiative, a mix of foreign policy, economic strategy, and charm offensive that, nurtured by a torrent of Chinese money, is rebalancing global political and economic alliances.

What Explains the Ups and Downs of Resource Nationalism?

Through resource nationalism — an attempt by a state to assert greater control over natural resources in its territory through mandates on global extractive industries — host countries seek to create value-added products and services and supply chains or capture assets. Over many decades, the balance of power has slowly shifted in the direction of host states as compared to global corporations. In the short- to medium-term, however, the strength of resource nationalism is likely to ebb and flow with global market cycles and local political cycles. Global geopolitical shifts are another conditioning factor, and China's rise has especially stoked worries in several countries about a loss of sovereignty.

AI and the Return of Great Power Competition

By Reva Goujon

Aging demographics and an emerging great power competition pitting China against the United States form the backdrop to a high-stakes race in artificial intelligence development. The United States, for now, has a lead overall in AI development, but China is moving aggressively to try and overtake its American rivals by 2030. While deep integration across tech supply chains and markets has occurred in the past couple of decades, rising economic nationalism and a growing battle over international standards will balkanize the global tech sector. AI advancements will boost productivity and economic growth, but creative destruction in the workforce will drive political angst in much of the world, putting China's digital authoritarianism model as well as liberal democracies to the test.

Russia, Japan: Representatives Struggle to See Eye-to-Eye On Military Matters

Stratfor's annual forecast highlighted Russia and China's concerns that enforcement of U.S.-allied missile defense infrastructure in the region around North Korea could undermine Moscow and Beijing's own missile architecture. The tension between Japan and Russia is reflective of this burgeoning trend, but also of Japan's long-term efforts to balance against China's rise.

What Happened

Russia, Japan: Representatives Struggle to See Eye-to-Eye On Military Matters

Stratfor's annual forecast highlighted Russia and China's concerns that enforcement of U.S.-allied missile defense infrastructure in the region around North Korea could undermine Moscow and Beijing's own missile architecture. The tension between Japan and Russia is reflective of this burgeoning trend, but also of Japan's long-term efforts to balance against China's rise.

What Happened

Air Force’s future ISR architecture could feature drone swarms and hypersonics — with AI underpinning it all

By: Valerie Insinna
Source Link

POZNAN, Poland — The Air Force’s ambitious new ISR strategy calls for a sensing grid that fuses together data from legacy platforms like the RQ-4 Global Hawk, emerging technologies like swarming drones, other services' platforms and publicly available information. And deciphering all of that data will be artificial intelligence. Such a system may sound like something out of a sci-fi book, but the service believes it could be in service by 2028. In a July 31 interview, Lt. Gen. VeraLinn “Dash” Jamieson, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for ISR, explained the Air Force’s new “Next Generation ISR Dominance Flight Plan,” which lays out the service’s intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance goals for the next 10 years.

FBI struggles to retain top cyber talent

Eric Geller

The recent departures of four top FBI cyber officials reflects a troubling trend: The bureau is losing its most seasoned agents and supervisors tasked with disrupting digital threats from Russia and elsewhere, even as threats to the nation’s power grid and elections grow. Close to 20 top FBI cybersecurity leaders have left for high-paying corporate jobs over the past five years, one former veteran agent told POLITICO — a dramatic turnover in a handful of senior jobs. And news of the most recent retirements followed the abrupt departure of the co-head of the FBI’s newly formed election meddling task force. The exodus — including departures from the FBI’s Cyber Division — worries current and former bureau officials. It’s also prompting concern from several top congressional Democrats, who asked their committees’ chairmen last week to get assurances from FBI Director Christopher Wray “that the agency has a plan to replace the departing staff, and that the safety of our elections will not suffer in the interim.”

SEX, BEER, AND CODING: INSIDE FACEBOOK’S WILD EARLY DAYS

AUTHOR: ADAM FISHER

EVERYONE WHO HAS seen The Social Network knows the story of Facebook’s founding. It was at Harvard in the spring semester of 2004. What people tend to forget, however, is that Facebook was only based in Cambridge for a few short months. Back then it was called TheFacebook.com, and it was a college-specific carbon copy of Friendster, a pioneering social network based in Silicon Valley. Mark Zuckerberg’s knockoff site was a hit on campus, and so he and a few school chums decided to move to Silicon Valley after finals and spend the summer there rolling Facebook out to other colleges, nationwide. The Valley was where the internet action was. Or so they thought.

Just In: L3 realigns business segments; Pairing pilots with drones; Lockheed CEO’s big gift, and more.

BY MARCUS WEISGERBER

Two weeks ago at the Farnborough Air Show outside London, L3 Technologies’ corporate chalet — a semi-permanent building a few hundred feet from the airfield — was bustling, its lobby packed with visitors checking in for meetings. Further inside — and outside on a terrace — people huddled around tables talking business. A lively, fresh energy filled the place, a feeling typically not associated with a corporate event held by a defense company. But this is the new L3, a company planning to grow and not shy to talk about it. It’s a dramatic shift for America’s sixth-largest defense company — one that has largely operated in the shadows for most of its existence. No more. Chris Kubasik, who took the reigns as CEO in January, described Farnborough as “our most productive show ever.” All told, more than 1,000 guests passed through the chalet, and executives held over 200 meetings, he said on the firm’s quarterly earnings call last week.

Weaponized Information Seeks A New Target In Cyberspace: Users' Minds

by Richard Forno

The Russian attacks on the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the country’s continuing election-related hacking have happened across all three dimensions of cyberspace - physical, informational and cognitive. The first two are well-known: For years, hackers have exploited hardware and software flaws to gain unauthorized access to computers and networks - and stolen information they’ve found. The third dimension, however, is a newer target - and a more concerning one.

U.S. 4G Networks Are Improving Across The Board

by Felix Richter

While the United States is one of the leading countries in the world in terms of smartphone penetration, the country's mobile networks haven't always been up to speed.According to a global comparison conducted by OpenSignal in Q4 2017, U.S. 4G networks were lagging in terms of average download speed. With an average download rate of 16.3 Mbps, U.S. smartphone users reached less than half the speed of mobile internet users in countries such as South Korea, Norway or Singapore.

Satellite Imagery + Social Media = A New Way to Spot Emerging Nuclear Threats

BY PATRICK TUCKER

Hiding illicit nuclear programs might be getting harder, thanks to new ways of gleaning and combining clues from various rivers of digital data. That’s the conclusion of new research funded in part by the U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration. Satellites offer one kind of information; social media another — particularly inside countries that may be trying to flout inspections. But large volumes of satellite imagery and social media data aren’t similar. You can have one analyst examine satellite pictures and another look at social media posts to see if they align, but the process is time-consuming and generally far from comprehensive. The study’s authors developed a method for fusing different types of data in a machine-readable way to offer a much clearer picture.

China’s AI Giants Can’t Say No to the Party Open debate abo

BY ELSA B. KANIA

As China seeks a deeper fusion between defense and commercial technological development, the bridges that the U.S. Defense Department has been seeking to build to Silicon Valley seem precarious. Google faced intense backlash against its work with the Pentagon’s Project Maven, ultimately deciding not to renew the contract—even though this engagement appears to be consistent with the ethical principles that Google has since released. When ethics collide with strategic competition in artificial intelligence, the United States can seem to be at a disadvantage.

What War Games Tell Us About the Use of Cyber Weapons in a Crisis

Dr. Jacquelyn G. Schneider is an assistant professor and affiliate faculty at the Center for Cyber Conflict Studies at the U.S. Naval War College. This article represents her views alone and do not represent those of the U.S. Naval War College, the U.S. Navy, or the Department of Defense. You can follow her @jackiegschneid. Last week, Jason Healey argued that “there is now a well-documented instance of cyber deterrence,” pointing to a report of conversations within the Obama administration. Some White House officials argued against a cyberattack, citing asymmetric vulnerabilities in tit for tat engagements within the cyber domain. Healey highlights a powerful example of cyber restraint within the Obama administration, but is it deterrence? The United States has also exercised restraint in the nuclear domain, but it is unclear even now whether that restraint is a result of adversary deterrence efforts or a normative nuclear taboo. So what is driving the cyber restraint Healey identified?

Copper: A Relative Constant in a Changing World

Economic growth in large, developing nation and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles will increase global demand for copper. But the metal has enough other uses that electric vehicle demand alone will not be enough to prompt sufficient expansion of traditional mines. Refiners will likely turn to recycling and alternative extraction methods. South American copper producers will continue to dominate global exports despite increasing environmental constraints. Other major producers, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mongolia, will face political challenges as operations try to expand.

Copper: A Relative Constant in a Changing World

Economic growth in large, developing nation and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles will increase global demand for copper. But the metal has enough other uses that electric vehicle demand alone will not be enough to prompt sufficient expansion of traditional mines. Refiners will likely turn to recycling and alternative extraction methods. South American copper producers will continue to dominate global exports despite increasing environmental constraints. Other major producers, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Mongolia, will face political challenges as operations try to expand.

AI and the Return of Great Power Competition

By Reva Goujon

Aging demographics and an emerging great power competition pitting China against the United States form the backdrop to a high-stakes race in artificial intelligence development. The United States, for now, has a lead overall in AI development, but China is moving aggressively to try and overtake its American rivals by 2030. While deep integration across tech supply chains and markets has occurred in the past couple of decades, rising economic nationalism and a growing battle over international standards will balkanize the global tech sector. AI advancements will boost productivity and economic growth, but creative destruction in the workforce will drive political angst in much of the world, putting China's digital authoritarianism model as well as liberal democracies to the test.

What Explains the Ups and Downs of Resource Nationalism?

Through resource nationalism — an attempt by a state to assert greater control over natural resources in its territory through mandates on global extractive industries — host countries seek to create value-added products and services and supply chains or capture assets. Over many decades, the balance of power has slowly shifted in the direction of host states as compared to global corporations. In the short- to medium-term, however, the strength of resource nationalism is likely to ebb and flow with global market cycles and local political cycles. Global geopolitical shifts are another conditioning factor, and China's rise has especially stoked worries in several countries about a loss of sovereignty.