Indian Strategic Studies: 06/12/18

12 June 2018

Kishenganga Hydro Electric Project in J&K- India Should stand firm on its Rights

By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan

Ever since the Prime Minister of India inaugurated the Kishenganga Project in Jammu and Kashmir, the Pakistan media has been coming out with a spate of articles accusing India of violating the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. On Pakistan’s insistence, the issue had gone for arbitration twice in 2010 and 2013. Pakistani officialdom and the media have once again begun the demand for arbitration though the issue was once before settled. Strangely, the country which has been the nursery of terrorists is accusing India of “Water Terrorism”

The Project:

Perspectives on India’s relations with smaller neighbours

By Col R Hariharan

Q: What are the misconceptions about India in South Asia, when it comes to security related issues as a threat to State Sovereignty? Why do these perceptions exist? And how can India move past these misperceptions?

India’s cultural, religious, ethnic and linguistic soft power dominates the entire South Asian region from Afghanistan on the West to Myanmar on the East and from Nepal in the North to Sri Lanka in the South. Its shared historical, political and commercial links spread over two thousand years overwhelms India’s smaller neighbours.

The role of software in manufacturing in India

Anmol Agarwal, Sujan Bandyopadhyay

Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, had once said: “Software is a great combination between artistry and engineering.” Today this combination of art and science is ubiquitous, used in a variety of everyday products. However, has software really affected the production process in traditional manufacturing industries, like automobiles and aerospace?

A recent working paper, “Get With the Program: Software-driven Innovation in Traditional Manufacturing” by Lee G. Bransetter and Namho Kwan (Carnegie Melon University), and Matej Drev (Georgia Institute of Technology), has documented the increasing prevalence of software in traditional manufacturing industries, at the cost of traditional processes like mechanical and chemical engineering, to develop and innovate products.

The Trump challenge to India Iran ties

Kabir Taneja

On 8 May, the US, under President Donald Trump, pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. The deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is an agreement struck between Tehran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and Germany (P5+1) over the former’s alleged nuclear weapons programme. Since then, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif has visited New Delhi to drum up support for its stance.

This decision by Trump is now expected to open up the possibility of the US Congress legislating more sanctions on Iran. These sanctions, like before, will also bring India-Iran ties to another challenging crossroads.

What will India’s role be in the SCO?

By ZAMIR AWAN

Next month the heads of state of India and Pakistan will attend, for the first time as full members, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, being held in Qingdao, China. Pakistan was already engaged with SCO member states through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Joining the SCO will reinforce Pakistan’s position and integration into the region.

However, regarding India, there are few clarifications needed. What will India’s role be in the SCO? How well can India integrate into the SCO? What are the expectations?

India refuses to endorse China’s Belt and Road Initiative in SCO summit statement

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious multi-billion inter-continental connectivity mission. The 17-page joint SCO declaration said all other seven member countries had endorsed the project and agreed to work towards implementing it. India was the only country on Sunday not to endorse a high-profile Chinese project in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK) — the only discordant note in the 17-page joint document released at the end of the 18th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Qingdao.

FROM GUERRILLA TO MANEUVER WARFARE: A LOOK AT THE TALIBAN’S GROWING COMBAT CAPABILITY

Alec Worsnop

The growing territorial reach exercised by the Taliban poses a notable threat to the stability of the Afghan government. The insurgents’ persistence and adaptability points to an underappreciated trend. While guerrilla warfare has been consistently identified as a way for less powerful actors to counter much stronger fighting forces, treating the tactic as a “primitive’” weapon of the weak underestimates the complexity involved in fighting guerrilla wars, let alone transitioning into movement warfare. Guerrilla warfare requires reliable small units that can fire and maneuver to retain the tactical offensive against much stronger foes.

Safer at Sea? Pakistan’s Sea-Based Deterrent and Nuclear Weapons Security

Christopher Clary and Ankit Panda

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Its January 2017 and March 2018 missile tests demonstrate Pakistan’s commitment to develop sea-based nuclear weapons in the coming decade. While some argue this could enhance deterrence, it may increase the dangers of higher readiness and unauthorized use; the risks of inadvertent escalation, preemption, and crisis stability; and the threat of theft or sabotage.

North Korea Is Ultimately China's Problem

By Isaac Stone Fish and Robert E. Kelly

It was no surprise that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s first known meeting with a foreign leader since taking power in 2011 was his March visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Over the last two decades, Kim and his father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, have met more with Chinese leaders than with all other foreign leaders combined. As North Korea’s neighbor, largest trading partner, and most important patron, China is both the country most responsible for facilitating Pyongyang’s provocations and the one with the most to lose should the regime collapse—always a possibility for so shambolic a polity.

The Future of Nuclear Power in China

MARK HIBBS

China is on course to lead the world in the deployment of nuclear power technology by 2030. Should it succeed, China will assume global leadership in nuclear technology development, industrial capacity, and nuclear energy governance. China is on course to lead the world in the deployment of nuclear power technology by 2030. Should it succeed, China will assume global leadership in nuclear technology development, industrial capacity, and nuclear energy governance. The impacts will be strategic and broad, affecting nuclear safety, nuclear security, nonproliferation, energy production, international trade, and climate mitigation. Especially critical is whether China achieves an industrial-scale transition from current nuclear technologies to advanced systems led by fast neutron reactors that recycle large amounts of plutonium fuel.

How China Ends Wars: Implications for East Asian and U.S. Security

Oriana Skylar Mastro

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How would China end wars? In the major wars it has fought since 1949, Beijing exhibited problematic tendencies in the three factors key to timely war resolution. Since those conflicts, changes in China are likely to magnify Beijing’s pernicious war termination tendencies further. How should the United States adjust?

Developing a Containment Strategy in Syria

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Some U.S. policymakers have argued that the United States should withdraw its military forces from Syria. But the United States has several interests in Syria: Balancing against Iran, including deterring Iranian forces and militias from pushing close to the Israeli border, disrupting Iranian lines of communication through Syria, preventing substantial military escalation between Israel and Iran, and weakening Shia proxy forces. Balancing against Russia, including deterring further Russian expansion in the Middle East from Syrian territory and raising the costs—including political costs—of Russian operations in Syria. Preventing a terrorist resurgence, including targeting Salafi-jihadist groups like the Islamic State and al Qaeda that threaten the United States and its allies.

How Al-Qaeda Works: The Jihadist Group’s Evolving Organizational Design

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross

The years following the 9/11 attacks and preceding the Arab Spring marked a period of tumult for al-Qaeda. The jihadist organization lost a number of key commanders after the United States invaded Afghanistan, including several involved in planning operations outside the region. Though al-Qaeda did prepare a credible large-scale plot against commercial aviation in August 2006 and nearly brought down an international flight over Detroit in December 2009,1 the organization went multiple years without a successfully executed terrorist attack in the West. For an organization that had to a certain extent staked its credibility on its ability to sustain an armed struggle against the “far enemy,” this hiatus damaged its reputation. Compounding these problems was al-Qaeda’s Iraq affiliate, which had stubbornly ignored the al-Qaeda leadership’s guidance to tone down what they deemed to be excessively violent methods. After overplaying its hand, which provoked an organized backlash from Iraqi Sunni communities, al-Qaeda in Iraq collapsed. In turn, its collapse was a blow to the al-Qaeda organization as a whole.

Whither ISIS? Insights from Insurgent Responses to Decline

by Paul Staniland

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How will ISIS respond to recent setbacks? By examining fifteen other major insurgent organizations that faced decline, this study suggests that ISIS will likely survive even devastating territorial losses, and identifies three potential trajectories for the organization, and the conditions likely to lead to each.

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

by Karl P. Mueller
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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) and North Korean official Kim Yong Chol (left) meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the truce village of Panmunjom, North Korea, May 26, 2018 Recent statements by U.S. leaders regarding the presumably-upcoming Singapore summit between President Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un have led to a flurry of analogies between the present case and that of Muammar Qaddafi’s regime in Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003 and was overthrown in 2011 following a Western military intervention. In reality, the two situations have little in common, and looking to Libya as a precedent for either denuclearization or regime change in North Korea has the potential to lead to confusion and disappointment.

Russian Election Interference: Europe’s Counter to Fake News and Cyber Attacks

RIK BRATTBERG, TIM MAURER

Summary: Russia’s election interference reflects a trend that blends premeditation with opportunism. To bolster resilience, countries must urgently share best practices and lessons learned. Russia’s aggressive campaign targeting the 2016 U.S. election revealed not only the extent to which information and communications technologies are being used to undermine democratic processes but also the weaknesses of protection measures. The U.S. government was effectively caught off guard, once again highlighting that such interference presents a rising global threat. Comprehensive strategies and tools are clearly needed as part of a long-term, holistic approach to building resilience, but to be effective, they should be informed by the regular sharing of best practices and lessons learned between countries.

Egypt's Options to Counter Ethiopia's Grand Dam Run Dry

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a critical component of Addis Ababa's economic development strategy, will provide ample electricity for the country's 100 million citizens. Despite Egypt's long hostility to the project, Ethiopia will soon complete the dam, underscoring the shifting balance of power from Cairo to the upstream states of Sudan and Ethiopia. Cairo's weak hand and inability to gain sufficient leverage over Addis Ababa will force it to coordinate dam operations if it wishes to have input on future Nile River projects.

2018 Third-Quarter Forecast

China Remains in the U.S. Crosshairs. The United States will impose tariffs, sanctions and blocks on investment and research in a bid to frustrate China's development of strategic technologies. China not only has the tools to manage the economic blow, but will also accelerate efforts to lessen its reliance on foreign-sourced technological components.

Trade Battles Fall Short of a Full-Fledged War. Trade frictions will remain high this quarter as the White House continues on an economic warpath in the name of national security. U.S. tariffs will invite countermeasures from trading partners targeting U.S. agricultural and industrial goods. As Congress attempts to reclaim trade authority, the White House will refrain from escalating these trade battles into an all-out trade war.

U.S. Trade Deficit by Country, with Current Statistics and Issues

BY KIMBERLY AMADEO

The United States has the world's largest trade deficit. It's been that way since 1975. The deficit in goods and services was $566 billion in 2017. Imports were $2.895 trillion and exports were only $2.329 trillion.

The U.S. trade deficit in goods, without services, was $810 billion. The United States exported $1.551 trillion in goods. The biggest categories were commercial aircraft, automobiles, and food.

It imported $2.361 trillion. The largest categories were automobiles, petroleum, and cell phones.

The Russian Challenge

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This RAND Arroyo Perspective updates previous analysis published by the RAND Corporation about Russia as a source of military competition and potential conflict with the United States and its allies. The Perspective is one of several summary assessments produced to support development of the 2016 Annual Report of the RAND Arroyo Center. The annual report focuses thematically on the major drivers of U.S. national security policy and strategy. This publication takes into consideration the history of post-Cold War Russian and presents an argument about how to confront potential Russian aggression in the Baltic region, drawing on years of expertise analyzing the region and on the results of numerous wargames conducted by RAND. We articulate that argument by answering a series of questions.

Examining Civil Society Legitimacy

SASKIA BRECHENMACHER, THOMAS CAROTHERS

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace gratefully acknowledges support from the Ford Foundation, the Charles Stewart Mott Foundation, and the UK Department for International Development that helped make this study possible.

Civil society is under stress globally as dozens of governments across multiple regions are reducing space for independent civil society organizations, restricting or prohibiting international support for civic groups, and propagating government-controlled nongovernmental organizations. Although civic activists in most places are no strangers to repression, this wave of anti–civil society actions and attitudes is the widest and deepest in decades. It is an integral part of two broader global shifts that raise concerns about the overall health of the international liberal order: the stagnation of democracy worldwide and the rekindling of nationalistic sovereignty, often with authoritarian features.

Four Ways 3D Printing May Threaten Security

3D models by Wyatt C./3D Warehouse (drone); Dialplus/3D Warehouse (turbine); Harry A/3D Warehouse (3D printer); X CALIBER/3D Warehouse (gun) The next few decades could yield new tools for criminals, new security threats, and new challenges to the world economic order—all built layer by layer by 3D printers. 3D printers already produce everything from prosthetic hands and engine parts to basketball shoes and fancy chocolates. But as with any technological advance, new possibilities come with new perils. A new RAND paper, Additive Manufacturing in 2040: Powerful Enabler, Disruptive Threat, explores how 3D printers will affect personal, national, and international security. The paper is part of RAND's Security 2040initiative, which looks over the horizon to anticipate future threats.

Information – The Final Frontier of Cybersecurity

Jani Antikainen

Typically, information can be stolen without much impact to operations. In some cases, access to information may be denied, causing temporary harm until backups can be restored. Compromising information integrity, its trustworthiness, however can have far more devastating operational effects as it might cause an organization to make decisions based upon bad information or reduce customer trust in their platform or business. Imagine the impact if there is even a suspicion that business critical information might not be all correct. The manufacturing blueprints could have an intentional error, invoices might have wrong account numbers in them, financial statements affecting stock prices might have faulty numbers. And for all this, it might not be possible to know when exactly the manipulation started. Soon the lack of trust will drive all operations to a grinding a halt.

HOW NATO DEFENDS AGAINST THE DARK SIDE OF THE WEB

"OOPS, YOUR FILES have been encrypted!" This was the chilling message that greeted hundreds of thousands of computer users last summer. The WannaCry ransomwareattack brought production to a standstill at Renault factories across France, put lives at risk by attacking hospitals in the UK, and cost companies around the world billions of dollars in lost revenue. Jens Stoltenberg (@jensstoltenberg) is NATO secretary general and the former prime minister of Norway. The digital revolution has transformed our lives for the better. But this revolution has a dark side: Cyberattacks are now a part of our daily lives. The very nature of these attacks poses a challenge. It is often difficult to know who has attacked you, or even whether you have been attacked at all. And the culprits vary from governments to criminal gangs to terrorist groups and lone individuals. Nowhere is the fog of war thicker than in cyberspace.

All the Nuclear Missile Submarines in the World in One Chart

By Dimitrios Mitsopoulos

The ballistic missile submarine is the most reliable means of nuclear deterrence. These vessels would survive a first strike and retaliate, which is meant to prevent an enemy from ever using its weapons. These fearful underwater giants stay hidden in the oceans avoiding detection at all costs and are always ready for the moment they might be needed.