Elliot Waldman
Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, suffered a historic defeat in local elections last weekend that were overshadowed by an extensive Chinese interference campaign. Taking responsibility for her party’s midterm drubbing, President Tsai Ing-wen resigned as DPP leader on Saturday night, casting doubt on her prospects for winning a second term in national elections set to take place in early 2020.
Many observers had expected the opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, which favors closer ties with China, to make a comeback after losing both the presidency and a legislative majority in 2016. Anti-incumbency was in the air in the months leading up to election day, with opinion polls showing some of Tsai’s lowest approval ratings so far in her four-year term. But voters surpassed those expectations to deliver a stunning rebuke to the independence-leaning DPP, which managed to win only six of the 22 key races for mayoral and county magistrate positions. The party previously held 13 of those seats.
In the southern port city of Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s third-largest population center and a DPP stronghold for the past 20 years, the KMT’s nominee for mayor, Han Kuo-yu, pulled off an upset victory driven by straight-talking populist rhetoric and folksy appeals to the working class. On the eve of the elections, he drew raucous applause from a crowd of 200,000 supporters when he promised to “make Kaohsiung great.” Meanwhile, his opponent struggled to connect with voters despite a positive trajectory of local economic development under DPP rule. “Kaohsiung has been transformed in the last 20 years, but the DPP candidate did not manage to get that message across,” says Dafydd Fell, director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, in an email.
That failure of political messaging was a factor in the DPP’s losses across the board, according to Fell. The party could not capitalize on its achievements in tackling difficult but fiscally prudent pension reforms and establishing a Transitional Justice Commission to look into atrocities committed in the decades after World War II, when the island was ruled by a military dictatorship. Tsai was also seen as failing to deliver on campaign promises to revitalize the Taiwanese economy and boost wages, which have barely grown in 15 years.
“This ranks as one of the DPP’s worst ever local election results,” Fell adds.
The elections were also the first to take place since a law was passed last year making it easier to propose issues for nationwide referendums. Institutionalizing referendums in this way and familiarizing voters with them has been a longtime goal of independence advocates, to prepare for a scenario in which Taiwan’s status would be put to a vote. “Major sections of the DPP always wanted to have some kind of referendum law in case there ever needs to be a referendum on self-determination, there will be a mechanism in place for doing that,” Michael Fahey, a Taipei-based legal consultant, told The New York Times. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, was formed in 1949 from the remnants of China’s Kuomintang government, which was defeated by the Communists in a civil war. Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory and has threatened military action should the island move toward formal independence.
As a result of the new referendum law, a total of 10 questions were put to voters last Saturday, on topics that ranged from gay rights to energy policy to the country’s official name at the Olympics. Advocates for marriage equality had hoped Taiwan would become the first Asian nation to legalize gay marriage, but instead, nearly 70 percent of voters said the institution of marriage should be restricted to a man and a woman.
Although the primary issues on voters’ minds were domestic, the elections were notable for the degree of Chinese interference. Meddling from the mainland is nothing new, but analysts like Fell note that Chinese efforts to influence electoral outcomes in Taiwan have become more expansive and sophisticated. In contrast to the blunt threats and saber-rattling of years past, Beijing has worked quietly to develop a keen understanding of Taiwanese political dynamics, openly supporting disenchanted community groups in the islands’ neglected rural areas and quietly routing funds to preferred politicians through Taiwanese businesses based in China.
China remains a vexing challenge not only to Taiwan’s major political parties, but also to the integrity of Taiwanese democracy.Rapid digitalization and the proliferation of social media in Taiwan offers a particularly potent avenue for influence operations. Earlier this month, Jessica Drun, a China research analyst at SOS International who monitors Chinese Communist Party-affiliated cyber activity, found that China has “escalated its disinformation campaign against Taiwan to an unprecedented level” on a variety of social media platforms. She cited a heavily circulated news story from September alleging that Taiwanese officials bungled the evacuation of their citizens who were stranded in Osaka, Japan, during a typhoon. That claim—which originated in a post on PTT, Taiwan’s most popular online message board—was later debunked, but not before the director general of Taiwan’s de facto diplomatic mission in Osaka committed suicide. The original post, as well as many other subsequent fake news posts, was traced back to a Beijing-based IP address.
“The unifying thread between these posts are falsehoods centered on Tsai and her administration’s management of key issues,” Drun says in an email. “This falls in line with Beijing’s broader attempts to paint the DPP as ill-equipped for leadership, while bolstering the KMT as a more responsible and capable alternative.”
Taiwanese authorities are now investigating the extent of Chinese election interference and seeking new ways to defend against future disinformation campaigns. But as Drun points out, determining the origins of social media posts is difficult, and measuring their impact even more so. The true effect of Chinese meddling on this month’s electoral outcomes will probably remain a mystery.
While Taipei scrambles to address the threat of fake news, Beijing is likely to build bridges to the new KMT-controlled cities and provinces by offering economic concessions, says Wei-chin Lee, a professor of political science at Wake Forest University. These outreach efforts could include purchasing agricultural goods or encouraging Chinese tourist groups to visit those areas. That selective investment in local economies will boost the KMT’s legitimacy and put pressure on the central government in Taipei, adding to Beijing’s ongoing diplomatic efforts to poach Taiwan’s allies.
Clearly, the DPP will have to revamp its strategy in order to maintain its hold on the levers of national power in 2020, but a newly emboldened KMT must also tread carefully. “It is difficult to see the KMT move very quickly or very far” in the aftermath of Saturday’s election wins, Lee says, since it was only four years ago that a KMT administration under President Ma Ying-jeou suffered a severe backlash for its efforts to cultivate closer ties with China, including a proposed free trade deal. Concerns that Ma was surrendering the country’s economic sovereignty erupted into street protests and a wave of activism known as the Sunflower Movement, which helped usher the DPP into power in 2016.
As cross-strait relations are magnified ahead of national elections, both sides will have to carefully calibrate their positions. In the meantime, Beijing will no doubt continue to hone its influence operations, including against other neighboring democracies. China remains a vexing challenge not only to Taiwan’s major political parties, but also to the integrity of Taiwanese democracy.
No comments:
Post a Comment