Andrew Sparrow
Finally, after months of procrastination, the government and parliament are reaching the point where choices about Brexit that ministers and MPs have been avoiding since the summer of 2016 can no longer be put off. Some key decisions could be taken within the next 24 hours; others in the run-up to the parliamentary vote (now expected mid-December, after an EU summit at the end of November).
Here are the key questions that will need to be answered soon:
Can Theresa May win the backing of her entire cabinet?
This matter will be resolved within the next 24 hours. The prime minister will see some ministers individually on Tuesday night, applying basic “divide and rule” psychology. In the past some cabinet Brexiters were braver when it came to briefing about their reservations rather than acting on them, but if they are going to walk it will have to be now. There will be particular focus on those who have laid down red lines in public, such as Andrea Leadsom and Penny Mordaunt.
What will the text of the withdrawal agreement say about the Irish backstop?
The backstop is the mechanism that will ensure there is no hard border in Ireland after Brexit, acting as a fallback if the new trade relationship after the transition fails to deliver no hard border. There are two issues in particular where the details remain unclear. First, to what extent could the plan lead to goods going to Northern Ireland from Great Britain being subject to new regulatory checks? And second, what will be the mechanism for ending the backstop and will the UK be able to exit unilaterally?
What will the political declaration say about the post-Brexit trade relationship – or the ‘future framework’, as the UK government describes it?
This is crucial, but it has received relatively little attention because the focus in recent weeks has been on the backstop. In particular, will the EU allow the UK to remain effectively in the single market for goods, as May wants? And what will the paper say about May’s hugely complicated – and potentially unworkable – proposed “facilitated customs arrangement”?
Will the DUP support the deal?
That partly depends on the answer to the backstop question, but, on the basis of what the DUP is saying on Tuesday night, the signs do not look good.
Can May win over some of the more moderate Tory Brexiters?
The ERG hardliners have been out already rubbishing the deal, without having even seen it. Steve Baker, one of their leaders, said recently that at least 40 hardliners would vote against it come what may. The PM hopes to contain the scale of the Tory rebellion (which at one stage was expected to reach 80 or more). But the resignation of the remain-voting Jo Johnson on Friday will probably make this difficult.
Until Johnson, all Brexit resignations were “zero-sum” resignations; when a Brexiter went, at least the Tory pro-Europeans could console themselves that they were winning internal arguments, and the same logic applied when pro-European ministers (such as Phillip Lee) quit. But the Johnson resignation was a “double accelerant” resignation. His move is likely to encourage both pro-Europeans and Brexiters to reject the deal. If you are mildly Eurosceptic you would not want to be seen as caring less about UK sovereignty than a liberal Tory like Johnson.
Can May persuade Labour to vote for the deal?
On the basis of what Jeremy Corbyn is saying, it looks unlikely, but we will find out for certain over the coming weeks.
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