Sanam Vakil
In recent years political tensions in the Middle East have reached new heights over the intersecting crises stemming from the Syrian civil war, the unravelling of the Iran nuclear agreement, the war in Yemen, and the Qatar crisis. The common denominator in these events is the direct or indirect involvement of Iran. The country’s increased regional activity since its 2012 intervention in Syria has stoked anger and anxiety in the Gulf states, which fear Iran’s regional hegemonic ambitions. The Gulf states felt abandoned by the US under the Obama administration, which they believed prioritized the nuclear agreement ahead of pressuring Iran over its regional policies. From the perspective of the Gulf states this has led to Iran’s destabilizing influence spreading, which is evidenced by its support for Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, its military support for the Houthis in the Yemen civil war, its ongoing relationship with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and its relations with Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq. Iran has also repeatedly been accused of fomenting unrest and supporting the principally Shia opposition in Bahrain.
Chatham House Iran and the GCC: Hedging, Pragmatism and Opportunism In response, Iran argues that its regional relationships and activities are by invitation, that they are purely defensive, and are designed to achieve the strategic depth needed to repel threats away from Iran’s borders. For the last four decades, Iran’s regional position has been motivated by opposition to Israel and hostility with the US, which has a significant military presence in the Middle East. Tensions with Saudi Arabia have also become a factor in Iran’s regional calculations, especially as Saudi Arabia has sought to build an anti-Iranian regional coalition. In concert with Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the US, since the election of President Donald Trump, Saudi Arabia has made efforts to roll back Iranian influence and has repeatedly accused it of inflaming sectarian divides and sponsoring terrorism in the region. To counter this coalition, President Hassan Rouhani has tried to reduce the tension with Saudi Arabia through mediation by Kuwait and Oman in 2017. He has also argued for an all-inclusive regional security architecture. However, for the time being, pervasive mistrust on both sides has rendered such initiatives moot
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