By Daniel Shapiro
For the first time in decades, Israel finds itself on the receiving end of Russian threats. The tensions follow the downing last week of a Russian Ilyushin IL-20 military aircraft, and the deaths of its 15 crew members, by Syrian air-defense batteries responding to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian weapons shipments in Syria.
A crisis like this one cries out for US diplomacy to help manage it. So far, there’s no sign of it.
Two things have facilitated Israel’s campaign against Iranian weapons in Syria: the careful, professional approach of the Israeli Air Force, which hits its intended targets and avoids collateral damage; and Israel’s deft management of its relationship with Russia, since the Russian military deployed to Syria in 2015.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu works well with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the two countries’ air forces maintain a deconfliction channel to prevent accidents.
There is no dispute that Syrian forces, either incompetently or maliciously, shot down the Russian plane using Russian-supplied missiles. But it produced the harshest Russian reaction to Israeli strikes yet, including an assertion of Russia’s right to retaliate.
Israel reacted quickly to Russian accusations that it used the IL-20 as cover for its attack or failed to give adequate warning. It expressed sorrow for the loss of Russian lives, made clear its planes had returned before the Syrian missile was launched and dispatched the Israeli Air Force commander to Moscow to provide a full briefing.
Russia’s rhetoric has run hot and cold. Putin cited “a chain of tragic accidental circumstances,” but the defense ministry said Israel’s actions “either lacked professionalism or were an act of criminal negligence.” The crisis could fester.
Russia has always had the ability to limit Israeli freedom of action in Syria, but has chosen not to. Now, with possible domestic blowback for the loss of life, egged on by Iran and Syria, and as a signal to others in the region that there is a price for Russian blood, that policy may change.
A large fleet of Russian warships and planes currently in the eastern Mediterranean could be used to constrict the airspace Israeli planes operate in. Russia could deny use of the deconfliction channel, although it has not yet done so.
In extremis, it could confront Israeli planes directly. Moscow this week already announced that it will provide Syria its advanced S-300 air-defense systems.
Israel will not suspend its campaign. But Russian steps could endanger Israeli pilots, giving an additional edge to Iranian efforts.
Other than a statement from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo offering condolences for the Russian dead and demanding an end to the Iranian weapons flow to Syria, the United States has had little to say. That is insufficient.
President Trump has rightly been castigated for his obsequiousness to Putin. But if his cultivation of Putin is worth anything, now is the time to deploy it for something useful.
The US should convey directly to Russia and make clear in its public statements that it supports Israel’s legitimate campaign in Syria to prevent Iran from installing weapons to attack Israel, and opposes Russia providing the S-300 to Syria. A solidarity visit to Israel by a senior US defense official is in order.
The United States should encourage a chorus of other countries to join in condemning Iranian military adventures in Syria. This week’s UN Security Council session that Trump will chair presents an excellent opportunity, although lingering disputes over the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal make it harder.
Trump made one positive move recently, indicating a reversal of his position that US troops would leave eastern Syria imminently. As the counter-ISIS campaign nears completion, those troops still help prevent Iranian access to portions of Syria it could use to ship and base weapons. If Israel is constrained, US forces may yet be called upon to conduct more kinetic actions against Iranian weapons.
Finally, the administration and Congress should accelerate, through advance appropriations, the $5 billion in missile-defense funding promised Israel over the next decade in the 2016 memorandum of understanding. That will help ensure Israel is equipped to defend itself from the most dangerous Iranian weapons in Syria.
Last week’s incident was a warning that Syria can get even worse. The US should act to contain the damage, defend our ally and keep Russian reactions and Iranian ambitions in check.
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