Balkan Futures: Three Scenarios for 2025

What will the West­ern Balkans look like in 2025? Will we wit­ness Re­pub­lika Srp­ska de­clare in­de­pen­dence, a wors­en­ing of re­la­tions be­tween Kosovo and Ser­bia, and the rise of eth­nic ten­sions – or will we cel­e­brate Mon­tene­gro and Ser­bia join­ing the EU? The pa­per pre­sents three con­trast­ing sce­nar­ios on the fu­ture tra­jec­tory of the re­gion – a best-case, a mod­er­ate and a worst-case sce­nario. It also high­lights 1) key trends that are un­likely to change by 2025, but will play a key role in the re­gion; and 2) six pos­si­ble game-chang­ing fac­tors that will in­flu­ence pol­i­cy­mak­ing re­lated to the West­ern Balkans, and thus how its fu­ture will un­fold.

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Eng­lish (PDF, 73 pages, 5.28 MB)

Author 

Marko Čeperković, Donika Em­ini, Flo­rence Gaub, Zo­ran Nechev, Isidora Stakić, (Ed­i­tors: Marko Čeperković, Flo­rence Gaub)