Raj Chengappa
Every victor in a political election soon realises that once he or she occupies the seat of power, responsibility takes precedence over rhetoric. Imran Khan had to do that almost instantly. On the stump, he had mocked his arch-rival, Nawaz Sharif, for reaching out to Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he was in power, with the slogan -- "Modi ka jo yaar hai, woh gaddar hai" (He who is a friend of Modi is a traitor). A week later, when the election results showed that his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was in a position to form the government, Khans tone was more conciliatory, promising that if Modi took one step towards improving relations between the two countries, he would take two. When Modi graciously called Khan on July 30 to wish him well, they both hoped that they could begin a new innings together in India-Pakistan relations.
The good thing for Khan is that when it comes to improving ties with India, expectations are extremely low. So even the smallest steps he takes to move things forward will make a splash. That's because Sharif, who promised so much when he was elected as the prime minister for the third time in 2013, delivered very little beyond handshakes and hugs. Instead of an upswing, relations between the two countries touched a new nadir in the past three years.
The formal dialogue process never got going, tensions ran high over Pakistan stoking the volatile situation in Kashmir, the 2003 ceasefire agreement on the Line of Control (LoC) is as good as dead, after repeated violations -- indeed in September 2016 India famously resorted to surgical strikes to warn Pakistan to end cross-border terrorism after a series of provocative terror attacks.
Khan takes charge at a critical time when his troubled country is at a major crossroads not only in terms of its volatile internal dynamics but also in its relations with other countries, particularly India. In his victory speech, Khan complained that India had portrayed him as a Bollywood villain. He should have known better about a country that loves cricket as much as his own does.
In India, Khan remains a cricketing hero and his 1992 World Cup win was regarded not just as a Pakistani victory but a subcontinental one. As Khan takes over as the political captain of Pakistan on August 11, he should remember that there is inherent goodwill for him in the hearts of the Indian public. And he should not fritter that away.
India will probably find it easier to deal with Khan as his moves are likely to have the army's backing
That the Pakistan army had supported his political ascent to displace a belligerent Sharif is now common knowledge. But as Shivshankar Menon, former national security advisor and an expert on Pakistan, points out, Everyone may have written off Khan as a stooge of the army, but once a politician comes to power, the dynamics of the post and not the individual determine his relations with the establishment. He will follow his own dharma just as the army chief does.
Experts give Khan six months in the job before he exhibits traits of independence and assertiveness that characterised even his cricketing captaincy. The larger-than-life sense of self that he developed both as a cricketing and social icon has made him even more imperial and headstrong in his behaviour than most of his predecessors.
Almost all Indian leaders have found Pakistan far more complex and complicated to deal with than any other country. That's because there are several Pakistans to deal with simultaneously. Imran Khan as prime minister represents an important face of Pakistan, but is only one of them.
There is also the powerful Pakistan army that will seek to strengthen its hold over foreign policy and internal security. Then there are the Islamic right-wing groups, including militants, who with the blessings of the army had tried to join the political mainstream by contesting elections -- though without much success. And then there is its burgeoning civil society which wants Pakistan to develop rapidly and provide jobs for its aspiring young.
Khan represents a puzzling duality. He has maintained his comfort with modernity even as he embraced the support of right-wing conservatives to further his political prospects as he did with the army. T.C.A. Raghavan, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, points out, Lets be clear that Imran is not a 100 per cent creature of the army -- he is his own leader. He may have more of a comfort zone with the army than his predecessors did -- this is not a bad thing for us.
Let bygones be: Imran Khan meets Prime Minister Modi in Delhi in December 2015
In fact, India might find dealing with Khan far easier than Sharif because at least when he says he will do something, he will have the backing of the army. So the duality that India has experienced while dealing with other Pakistani leaders may not be as strong. Sharif, for example, had an open confrontation with the army, which then worked towards his ouster. Khan has seen the fate of politicians in Pakistan who have tried to take on the army chief and is likely to be more circumspect.
Yet experienced Pakistan-watchers believe that a change in top civilian leadership in Islamabad need not result in a change in the status quo in its relations with India. That's because, as Sharat Sabharwal, another former high commissioner to Pakistan, says, The army remains a constant, and with Sharif's exit, there is further dampening of relations with India.
Sabharwal is not comforted by the PTI manifesto, particularly the foreign policy objectives it lays down. On Kashmir, the manifesto expectedly declares it as a core issue, but harks back to the rhetoric of the distant past, calling for resolving the dispute within the parameters of UN Security Council resolutions. Both countries had long since moved on from this point and any reference to it is seen as a stalling mechanism by Pakistan.
More worrying for Sabharwal is that, in the manifesto, Khan sees conflict resolution and the security route to cooperation as the most viable to sort out issues with India. Translated, this means that Khan's government will up the ante on conflict resolution, with no mention of improving relations on other fronts, including trade -- which is exactly the Pakistan army's stand.
Though Khan, in his victory speech, did mention improving trade relations with India, this is being seen as something of an afterthought rather than a carefully crafted policy. Moreover, Khan will be too preoccupied with the pressing task of stopping a possible meltdown of the Pakistan economy and is likely to focus on improving ties with China and the US -- countries he is dependent on to bail him out of the financial mess he has inherited.
Menon too believes there will be no fundamental change in relations because the Pakistan army doesn't want it. Army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa's occasional statements that he would like relations with India to improve are seen as tactical moves to permit the army to focus on dealing with the situation in Afghanistan and avoid an escalation of hostilities with India. As Menon says, This is a perfect state of affairs for the Pakistan army.
Khan should know there is goodwill for him in Indian hearts. He should not fritter it away
After the elections, the generals now have a weak coalition government that is to their liking. They can keep a controlled level of hostility with India to leverage their hold over home affairs, keep their defence budgets intact and retain their influence on both security and foreign policy issues. They will allow Khan to do a little bit of dance over having a dialogue on Kashmir to keep India occupied and the generals will focus their energies on ensuring they retain their influence over Afghanistan. US President Donald Trump is keen to end Americas involvement in the Afghanistan conundrum and his officials have warned Pakistan that the US will not bail it out with a loan from the IMF unless Khan plays ball with its plans for Kabul.
So can Modi do business with Khan? Modis team is watching to see the kind of foreign policy advisors Khan appoints to gauge his sincerity and effectiveness. They are clear that there can be no forward movement in ties until Pakistan agrees to stop allowing its territory to be used by terrorist groups to perpetrate attacks on India and also ensures that the ceasefire agreement is enforced on the LoC. India is willing to talk on all outstanding issues, including Kashmir, if Khan is able to address these key issues.
As a sign of goodwill, India also expects some forward movement in trade, though officials are clear this is not to be used as a bargaining point. India has been waiting for Pakistan to grant it Most Favoured Nation status in trade since 2012 and permission to use Pakistan as a transit route for trading goods between India and Afghanistan has also been perpetually delayed. Some experts believe even a small demonstration, such as improving the logistics facilities for smoother transfer of goods between India and Pakistan at the Wagah border, would signal Khans sincerity in improving relations with India.
The immediate question is whether Modi should go to Pakistan if Khan invites him for his swearing-in ceremony. The consensus among experts is that he should accept such an invitation. It would again showcase to the world that Modi is sincere in his efforts to have peaceful relations with Pakistan and that it is Islamabad that has been the stumbling block. It would also enable Modi to travel to Pakistan and meet Khan without any agenda or expectations from the Indian public about outcomes.
A face-to-face meeting will also help Modi assess Khan as a leader and whether he will be able to walk his talk and deliver on key issues of common interest. Raghavan believes there is a growing constituency in the two countries that would like to break the logjam in bilateral relations. The world has seen dramatic changes in recent times -- whether between the two Koreas, the US approach to international trade and NATO and the ascent of Xi Jinping in China. There is no reason why the subcontinent should be an exception to this prolonged season of change. After all, Khan came to power on the slogan of Naya Pakistan.
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