The lead-up to Pakistan’s general election on 25 July 2018 has been dominated by tragedy and spectacle. Both are providing a useful distraction for the top three political contenders — the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PLM-N) party, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party — each of which appear largely uninterested in advancing a clearly defined agenda for change.
On Friday 13 July, an explosion in the Mastung area, claimed by both the so-called Islamic State and a faction of the Taliban, tore through an election rally in Balochistan, killing 149 people and injuring 189. Earlier the same day, a motorcycle bomb intended for a political candidate in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa missed its target but killed four bystanders and injured another 30. The explosions were the latest in a series of election-related attacksthat have occurred over the past several weeks.
While most Pakistani citizens are sadly accustomed to this type of tragedy, the attacks could still impact the polls. They also raise questions for Pakistan’s military — the nation’s de facto government — which recently claimed to be winning the war against Pakistan’s terrorist groups.
Election-related violence has also been accompanied by a major political drama. Former prime minister and PML-N party leader Nawaz Sharif, and his would-be successor and daughter Maryam Sharif, were recently convicted of corruption and sentenced to 10 and seven years in jail respectively. Sharif was convicted of owning assets beyond his known income and his daughter was found guilty of abetting her father in the concealment of his properties.
Pakistan’s Supreme Court banned Sharif from politics for life in April. Now both father and daughter have been excluded from contesting the 2018 elections. In his stead, Sharif’s brother and three-term Chief Minister of Punjab Shabaz Sharif has stepped into the PML-N leadership role.
It is possible that the political scandal will strengthen the Sharif family dynasty in the long term. Already the press is praising Maryam’s transformation from ‘dowdy princess’ to ‘lion-hearted’ leader. Time behind bars may be just what Maryam needs to step out from her father’s shadow as a viable candidate for future elections. But for now, without Sharif and Maryam, the PML-N has lost much of its mass appeal.
Many in Pakistan are outraged at what is claimed to be a ‘well-organised decimation of the Sharifs’ party.’ The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan claims that PML-N candidates are being pressured to switch parties. The PPP and the small but progressive Awami Workers Party have also reported serious harassment by both law enforcement and security personnel in the lead-up to election day.
Though Bilawal Bhutto’s PPP is now predicted to have little chance of winning the leadership, he could still grab hold of power by joining forces with the PML-N or the PTI if either fail to win an outright majority.
PTI’s charismatic leader Imran Khan has seen a favourable bump in support following the Sharifs’ arrests. Campaigning on the promise of a corruption-free Pakistan, Khan is particularly popular among the young and middle class. Branded ‘the favourite child of the “deep state”’, he has also gained from a recent rush of ‘electables’ flocking to the PTI in the hope of personally benefitting from a PTI government.
For his part, Khan is courting constituents broadly to increase his popularity beyond his traditional youth base and party stronghold in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This effort has included embracing the nation’s religious hardliners. In the past month Khan made a U-turn on his earlier rejection of the controversial ‘blasphemy law’. The law mandates the death penalty for any ‘imputation, insinuation or innuendo’ against the Prophet Muhammad and is often used to justify vigilante violence against Pakistan’s minority religious communities.
Khan is also advocating for direct negotiations with the Taliban, earning himself the nickname ‘Taliban Khan’. Others point to his claim that feminism is a Western movement that degrades mothers as further evidence that his values are regressive and ‘anti-women’. But Khan’s perceived religiosity is popular among religious fundamentalists. Hundreds of ulama (clerics) recently announced their support for the former international cricketer.
Disappointingly, among the deluge of violence and accusations of political machinations, the big issues that a new Pakistani leadership will confront — deep ethnic divisions, the implications of China-backed economic growth and the political influence of the military — appear to have fallen by the wayside. Instead of a productive dose of political competition, popularism and political manoeuvring have marked the weeks leading up to Pakistan’s elections.
With only days until voters head to the polls, one thing seems clear: Khan’s PTI has a better chance at victory than ever, even if his leadership holds little promise for a ‘New Pakistan’.
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