by Mona Yacoubian
Israel has long been wary of Iran’s power projection in the Levant, particularly in Syria. Ties between Tehran and Damascus have been close since the 1979 revolution, but the relationship deepened after Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011. With the Assad regime’s survival at stake, Tehran doubled down on its support, providing critical military assistance—fighters and strategists—and economic aid estimated to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Syria and Iran now have a partnership with existential stakes—for the Assad regime’s longevity and Iran’s enduring position in Syria, the most strategic property in the Levant. USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at Iran and Israel's goals and concerns in Syria and the potential of their shadow war spilling over into a regional conflagration.
The Islamic Republic’s military entrenchment in Syria significantly heightened Israel’s concerns, leading Israel to declare a red line on the transfer of sophisticated Iranian arms to Hezbollah. In January 2013, Israellaunched its first airstrike on Iranian interests in Syria. The reported target was advanced anti-aircraft weaponry intended for Hezbollah. Over the next five years, Israel flew repeated missions to disrupt Iranian weapons transfers to the Lebanese militia, which has also played a large role in propping up Assad…
The most significant danger is that hostilities between Israel and Iran escalate further and the conflict spreads from Syria into Lebanon—or even beyond—to become a more complex regional conflagration. Neither country may be interested in all-out war. Yet the prospect of miscalculation is growing as both sides continue to probe and test each other. Since February, hostilities have intensified with each provocation and response; the two adversaries have moved from indirect conflict to direct confrontation…
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