Kiran Stacey and Farhan Bokhari
The crowd gathered under the Thokar Niaz Baig flyover has been waiting in the steamy Lahore night for over an hour when Imran Khan finally appears. He climbs on top of a shipping container, his white shalwar kameez fluttering behind him, and leans over the railing to salute hundreds of flag waving supporters. “This is the moment of change for Pakistan,” he bellows. “I will deliver a Pakistan which is different.” Mr Khan, the country’s charismatic former cricket captain, has for the past few weeks been delivering the same message at rallies across the country, attracting crowds of several thousand during what aides say has been a gruelling and bitterly fought general election. More than 20 years since he first began campaigning to end what he says is endemic corruption in Pakistan, opinion polls suggest he is on the verge of victory in Wednesday’s election. He had hoped to win in 2013 but came a distant third, with analysts saying he spent too much time giving speeches at mass rallies and not enough on stitching together political alliances.
This time, with his main opponents mired in corruption allegations, and having led what experts say has been a savvier campaign, the 65-year-old has his best, and possibly last, shot at power. He also has, say critics, the backing of the powerful military, something Mr Khan denies. After a tumultuous year for the south Asian country, during which former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has been ousted from office and jailed on corruption charges, the result, whether Mr Khan wins or not, promises to change Pakistan politics forever. Victory for Mr Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party would bring to an end decades of domination by the Bhutto and Sharif families, members of whom have served as either prime minister or president for half the time since 1970. It would also signal that old clan loyalties that have decided the country’s elections for years are beginning to unravel
The crowd gathered under the Thokar Niaz Baig flyover has been waiting in the steamy Lahore night for over an hour when Imran Khan finally appears. He climbs on top of a shipping container, his white shalwar kameez fluttering behind him, and leans over the railing to salute hundreds of flag waving supporters. “This is the moment of change for Pakistan,” he bellows. “I will deliver a Pakistan which is different.” Mr Khan, the country’s charismatic former cricket captain, has for the past few weeks been delivering the same message at rallies across the country, attracting crowds of several thousand during what aides say has been a gruelling and bitterly fought general election.
More than 20 years since he first began campaigning to end what he says is endemic corruption in Pakistan, opinion polls suggest he is on the verge of victory in Wednesday’s election. He had hoped to win in 2013 but came a distant third, with analysts saying he spent too much time giving speeches at mass rallies and not enough on stitching together political alliances. Imran Khan has spent 20 years campaigning to end what he says is endemic corruption in Pakistan This time, with his main opponents mired in corruption allegations, and having led what experts say has been a savvier campaign, the 65-year-old has his best, and possibly last, shot at power. He also has, say critics, the backing of the powerful military, something Mr Khan denies.
After a tumultuous year for the south Asian country, during which former prime minister Nawaz Sharif has been ousted from office and jailed on corruption charges, the result, whether Mr Khan wins or not, promises to change Pakistan politics forever. Victory for Mr Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party would bring to an end decades of domination by the Bhutto and Sharif families, members of whom have served as either prime minister or president for half the time since 1970. It would also signal that old clan loyalties that have decided the country’s elections for years are beginning to unravel. “If we win, it is the end of an era — the end of two entrenched mafias,” Mr Khan tells the Financial Times from the front seat of his car as he is whisked from one campaign event to another. “They have had this whole system of patronage, but it is now breaking up.” Huma Baqai, a professor of international relations at Karachi university, sums up Mr Khan’s appeal:
“He is hope in the midst of hopelessness. He has no past political experience, he has committed blunders. But we have tried the two main political parties and they have not delivered.” A win for his opponent, Shehbaz Sharif, would keep the Sharif family in power. But it too, could spell an end to the political status quo. A pro-Imran Khan rally in Karachi in July. 'Imran Khan is trustworthy, the others are not,' says one supporter, 'He is the first politician we have had who lives up to the standards of the constitution' © AFP In office his brother, the jailed Nawaz Sharif, defied the generals with a programme of economic liberalisation and stuttering attempts to improve ties with India. Shehbaz Sharif has told the FT he wants to improve relations with the army. But a victory for his PML-N party, in the face of what campaigners say has been widespread electoral interference by the military, would put the army in a weaker political position than it has been for decades.
The result will be particularly important for the US after President Donald Trump’s decision to commit thousands more troops to Afghanistan in an effort to end America’s longest-ever war. That push will require more support from Pakistan, say analysts — something that is far more likely to come from Shehbaz Sharif than Mr Khan, who has complained about US policy in Afghanistan and criticised former administrations in Islamabad for co-operating with it. “The danger for the military is if the PML-N [wins] . . . then the stage would be set for a serious showdown,” says Paul Staniland, an associate professor of political science at the University of Chicago. “That could include on core national security issues like US and India relations, where the potential is highest for severe civil-military conflict.” As his black sport utility vehicle speeds through Lahore’s streets in the slipstream of an armed convoy, Mr Khan relaxes his six-foot frame into his leather seat and begins to speak in clipped, Oxford-educated tones.
“You think this is crazy?” he says of the scrum of reporters he has fought through to get into the car. “You’ve seen nothing yet.” His supporters are similarly enthused. “Imran Khan is trustworthy, the others are not,” says Mohammed Pervaiz, a tailor in Lahore, the Punjab capital and traditionally a PML-N stronghold, as he watches Mr Khan speak. “He is the first politician we have had who lives up to the standards of the constitution.” Mr Khan is not just relying on the ardour of his fan base to get him over the line. The corruption case he brought against Nawaz Sharif, which ended with the former prime minister’s imprisonment, has bolstered his image as an anti-corruption campaigner. The candidates: Shehbaz Sharif PAKISTAN MUSLIM LEAGUE-NAWAZ © AFP Once dubbed by the media ‘Pakistan’s Bobby Kennedy’, Shehbaz Sharif became leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz after his brother Nawaz Sharif was ousted from power last year on charges of corruption.
As president of PML-N, Shehbaz, 66, has retained the family’s influence over Punjab province which is home to almost 60 per cent of Pakistan’s population. Mr Sharif’s main advantage with voters is his record of developing infrastructure in Punjab, where he has served as provincial chief minister for the past decade. Just as importantly, however, he has been more willing this time to engage with Pakistan’s complex baradari system, where a few influential people will dictate how the rest of their family or clan votes. These people are often selected by parties as candidates, so-called electables, who can swing the results of entire districts. “In 2013, we didn’t have many electables,” Mr Khan says. “[This time] almost all our candidates have contested before. They know the art of fighting elections.” Some of his supporters believe that by doing so he has compromised his anti-establishment credentials.
Others fear there is a stronger force pulling in Mr Khan’s direction: the military. During one of the most bitter Pakistani election campaigns, candidates from other parties say they have been contacted by people they believe to be working for the intelligence services urging them to switch their vote to PTI. The candidates: Bilawal Bhutto Zardari PAKISTAN PEOPLE’S PARTY © AFP The eldest child of Pakistan’s late prime minister Benazir Bhutto, the 29-year-old was catapulted to the head of his family when his mother was assassinated while campaigning in 2007. Chairman of the Pakistan People’s party, Mr Zardari is its nominee as prime minister but is stuck in the shadow of his father, Asif Ali Zardari, who remains mired in accusations of corruption, which he denies. The PPP is currently polling in third place,
but could play a pivotal role if it retains control of Sindh province and joins a coalition involving either of the other two major parties. For his opponents, it is more evidence that Mr Khan is receiving the tacit backing of the army, which they say is desperate to make sure the PML-N does not return to power. He denies the accusation, but his views on foreign policy tally largely with those of the country’s most senior generals, especially on Pakistan’s key relationships with Afghanistan and the US. Relations between Washington and Islamabad have been further strained by the election of Mr Trump, who accused Pakistan of showing “nothing but lies and deceit” in its promises to tackle militancy on the border with Afghanistan. Mr Trump’s Afghan strategy is likely to rely at least in part on co-operation from Islamabad, whether through intelligence sharing, logistical support, or stopping the Afghan Taliban using Pakistan as a haven. That co-operation is likely to be scaled back if Mr Khan wins.
“In the past, Pakistan has been leaned on as a hired gun by the US,” he says. “They expect us to do their fighting for them — which has ended up being devastating for our country. [For the US] to blame Pakistan for their failure I think is a travesty. The candidates: Siraj ul-Haq JAMAAT-I-ISLAMI © Reuters The 55-year-old Islamist leader of Jamaat-i-Islami remains the main political voice of Pakistan’s Sunni Muslim clergy, the country’s majority faith. Islamic parties are unlikely to win more than a handful of seats, but Mr Haq’s clout is derived more from his party’s ability to trigger anti-western street protests. Many analysts believe the JI will be among the first Islamic parties in the new parliament to join forces with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrek-e-Insaf should he win the election. “The only way Pakistan can now help the Americans is to use the influence it has on the Taliban to get them across a table so that there is a political solution to this issue.”
The contrast with his main opponent is striking — and gives a sense of how much this election is likely to matter to both Washington and Kabul. Speaking to the FT from the sedate surroundings of his lavishly-decorated home in Lahore’s plush Model Town, Shehbaz Sharif says: “For Pakistan’s wellbeing, we are geared to further understanding our oldest friend, the USA.” And while both candidates talk effusively about China’s plans to spend $60bn on Pakistan’s infrastructure, Mr Khan’s PTI also says it wants to reconfigure the programme and publish more details about its financing — something Beijing has so far strongly resisted. The outcome of the election is not only important for nuclear-armed Pakistan’s role in the world. Mr Khan has pledged to spend big on public services in an attempt to create what he calls an “Islamic welfare state”. But experts warn his attempts to do so could be knocked off course before they have even begun by a looming currency crisis which could send any new prime minister running to the IMF for a bailout within months of taking over.
With exports dwindling — the result, say critics, of a failure to invest in industry and infrastructure — and the rallying oil price pushing import costs higher, stocks of foreign currency are running dangerously low. The State Bank of Pakistan had just $9.1bn in its coffers — enough to cover less than two months’ worth of imports — on July 13. Recommended World Pakistan currency tumbles ahead of election “We are running out of options,” says Ashfaque Hasan Khan, a former senior official at the finance ministry and now economics professor at Islamabad’s National University of Sciences and Technology. “Going back to the IMF is becoming inevitable.” If Mr Khan wins, such a move could puncture the popular support he has built up, especially if he has to sign up to strict IMF-mandated spending controls, which could undermine his campaign trail promises to boost public services.
Some think, however, that he would be the only leader with the political capital to take such a difficult decision. “The next few years will be extremely tough for Pakistan as we come out of our balance of payments crisis,” says the head of one of the country’s privately owned banks. “We need a leader that Pakistanis can trust because most people today do not trust the other two [parties].” To outside observers, there appears to be a clear choice. After Wednesday’s vote, Pakistan will either be run by an established operator in Mr Sharif or a political maverick. Educated at Oxford and having spent much of his life abroad, Mr Khan has been married three times and once had a reputation as a playboy and party animal. But despite his urbane image, he holds some deeply conservative social views. In recent years he has spoken in favour of Pakistan’s strict blasphemy laws, attacked author Salman Rushdie for offending Muslims with his book The Satanic Verses and argued that feminism is degrading the traditional role of motherhood.
He has also defended the Taliban and attacked Nato as western “liberals [who] are thirsty for blood”. Some have compared Mr Khan’s rise — that of a political outsider who has used social media to connect with a young and disenchanted electorate in recent months — to that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Narendra Modi in India or even Mr Trump. For others, he simply reflects the internal tensions that define his country: a Muslim democracy where conservatives and liberals, generals and politicians, all vie for supremacy. “Imran Khan shows many contradictions,” says Ghazi Salahuddin, a columnist for The News newspaper.
“He is unstable in his social, political and intellectual reflections; he doesn’t have ideological foundations.” Whoever wins, many believe that after a year which has seen a prime minister jailed, the army accused of running an anti-democratic conspiracy and an election riddled with allegations of malpractice, the most important job facing Pakistan’s next prime minister will be to reconcile a fractured country. “Pakistan will need a period of pacification and national unification,” says Mr Salahuddin. “After this election there will be an immediate need to make amends. We need a period of cooling off.” Shehbaz Sharif vows to challenge Pakistan election results Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018. All rights reserved.
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