Is Europe Prepared for a New Wave of Migrants?

The European migrant crisis that erupted in 2015 caught the Continent completely off guard.

It divided the EU into two camps: those that willingly took in migrants and agreed to Brussels' quota system, and those that did not. The former includes Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel continues to champion an open-door policy to European migration. The latter includes countries such as Hungary and Italy. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban campaigned on the threat that refugees would overrun his country if he were not elected, and former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has denounced illegal migrants living in Italy as a “social time bomb.” Anti-immigration politicians have been able to expand their power bases by tapping into the concern that migrants are exploiting Europe’s generous social programs.

To be sure, migrants who have made it to Europe since 2015 are likely to remain there long term. But, notably, over the past two years, migration to Europe has fallen significantly. According to the International Organization for Immigration, 172,000 migrants reached Europe by sea in 2017, compared to 363,000 in 2016. Still, it’s far from certain that these numbers will continue to drop, and it’s entirely possible they could rise substantially again.

This possibility ensures that migration will remain front and center of many political debates in Europe for the foreseeable future. 

You can take a deep dive into the European migrant crisis with our new e-book, In Europe, As Migration Falls, Nationalism Rises.