by Frank Li
President Trump has just practically declared a trade war against China (Trump Declares War On China's Unfair Trade Practices). There have been many publications over this matter (Did Donald Trump really just launch a trade war with China?). It's time for me to chip in my two cents: it's a bad thing for both America and China! War, a trade war or otherwise, is bad! War should be used only as the last resort - the only solution to a well-defined problem!
1. What's the problem?
We, the U.S., have big trade deficits with some 90 countries. Let me highlight two aspects: with China and with the world, respectively.
1.1 The U.S. trade deficit with China
The image below highlights the problem.
1.2 The U.S. trade deficit with the world
The image below highlights the top 10 countries the U.S. had trade deficits with in 2014.
2. What is the root cause?
We are no longer competitive in the world, especially against the rising China!
Why aren't we competitive any more?
It's the political system stupid! More specifically, we spend too much and we produce too little! Below are our four biggest problems:
Democratic Imperialism: War is perpetual, with the worst example being the Iraq War.
Democratic Socialism: Work is optional for many Americans, with the worst being public-sector unions.
Nation's debt: Our national debt is $20 trillion, growing.
Gun violence: America: Guns vs. Slavery.
3. Problem-solving
Is President Trump addressing the root cause? No, he is not!
Why not? Getting re-elected ad nauseam! For more, read: President Trump: Governing vs. Campaigning for 2020.
In other words, with his re-election in 2020 as the top priority, President Trump is looking for a scapegoat, while kicking the can down the road, just like all his predecessors did!
Who is the biggest scapegoat? China!
4. The U.S. and China
All relationships are mutual. The Sino-American relationship is no exception.
China has come a long way from being a dirt-poor country four decades ago to being a reasonably prosperous one today.
Undoubtedly, China would not have achieved its success without the help from the U.S. along the way. Reciprocally, the U.S. would not have helped China without good returns. For example, President Nixon visited China in 1972, with two explicit goals: seeking China's help to end the war in Vietnam and allying China against the USSR to eventually end the Cold War. Both goals were achieved!
Now, what about the trade deficit specifically? Do not blame China! The video below is worth more than 10,000 words.
5. What is the real solution for America?
Below are two big steps toward a real solution:
Pursue political reforms at home, as I have suggested.
Let the Chinese buy more of what they want from America without too many restrictions, just like Americans do in China. Free trade is fair trade!
Of course, neither step is possible. Why? Because the U.S., as a country, has proven to be incapable for adapting, totally in pale when compared with China, at least!
6. The U.S. vs. China
Are the ascending China and the declining U.S. destined for war (Destined for War). Yes and no!
Yes, it is destined for war, trade or otherwise, if America so chooses (China’s Premier Pledged Market Opening in Bid to Avert US Trade War).
No, it's not destined for a "real" war, thanks to MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), provided that America has real leaders who can think straight and have conscience (Built to Last: Structure & Conscience).
In contrast, China has neither the incentive nor history to wage wars against any country, let alone against the U.S.
For more, read: The U.S. vs. China.
7. Discussion
As a Chinese-American, I am caught between a rock and a hard place.
On one hand, I wish China, my native country, well - She suffered too much over the past 200 years. On the other hand, I wish America, my adopted country, well - She must stop her precipitous decline, so as to remain the shining city on the hill. Most importantly, there must be no war, trade or otherwise, between the two largest economies in the world!
It is chiefly for this reason that I have been writing for the past 10 years. For more, read the image below.
8. Closing
Time will prove that neither China nor America will win the trade war launched by President Trump.
Worse yet, it does not solve the real problems in America.
Worst of all, when all fails, will President Trump further escalate the trade war with more intensity or even launch another war?
Now, please sit back and enjoy the long video below.
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