The title above is from Benjamin Kerstein’s April 24, 2018 article in the Jewish publication, Algemeiner. “When I look at the month of May, I say there wasn’t a month of May so dangerous Israeli has faced since before the 1967 [Arab-Israeli] War,” said Amos Yadlin, the former head of Intelligence for Israel’s Defense Force (IDF), in a recent interview with the Israeli daily publication – Yedioth Ahronoth. “In the last Independence Day ceremonies, I was reminded of the independence ceremonies of 1967,” General Yadlin said.
“The Jerusalem parade, everyone was satisfied; but, they didn’t pay attention to the beginning of developments that snowballed into the Six Day War.” Yadlin expressed concern to the publication that the Israeli public is once again, somewhat oblivious, or disengaged from a looming Black Swan event that is building, as Iran expands its influence and strategic reach, from Beirut, to Damascus. “Yadlin warned against Israeli complacency and overconfidence,” Mr. Kerstein wrote. General Yadlin “pointed to Israel’s failure to predict the 1973 Yom Kippur War, in which Egypt and Syria caught Israel unaware [flatfooted], on its most holiest day; and, inflicted heavy casualties on the Jewish state, before being defeated by the IDF.”
General Yadlin pointed to the escalation of tension between Israel and Iran, citing the recent downing/discovery of an explosive-laden drone that entered Israeli airspace — that was Iranian made. As we now know, Israel retaliated by striking the control center for the drone [in Syria], and, some Syrian anti-aircraft batteries. “Last week,” Mr. Kerstein wrote, “Israel reportedly struck a Syrian airfield used to control Iranian drones.” And, not surprisingly, Iran has publicly vowed to retaliate for that strike.
‘Iran Indirectly Controls Four Arab Capitals Today: Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus, And Sanna’
Last December, noted author Tom Friedman, who has written extensively on the Middle East, and is steeped in its history and many nuances, told a CNBC audience that Iran indirectly controls four Arab capitals today: Beirut, Baghdad, Damascus, and Sanna. Iranian overreach, and miscalculation, key ingredients for a potential Black Swan event, or outbreak of hostilities — are in abundance in the region, as we approach the month of May. In essence, Mr. Friedman told CNBC, “Iran has developed the muscles [ecosystem] of how to build underground networks and use proxies in order to extend their influence,” and strategic reach.”
And, as we saw in Israel’s 2006 conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran had clandestinely built a sophisticated, underground, communications ecosystem throughout southern and western Lebanon which greatly aided Hezbollah in planning and coordinating their campaign against the IDF. Additionally, Iran had secretly supplied Hezbollah with a significant upgrade in combat capability — levels that surprised the IDF and the Israeli leadership. Some within the IDF no doubt fear that it is Groundhog Day again; and, Iran is once again using the Assad regime and Tehran’s physical presence in Syria — to arm their proxies with more lethal technology and weapons. At what point does this become a clear and present danger; and, prompts Israel to pre-emptively strike? We’re likely very close to that Red Line, I would suspect.
With the Iran nuclear agreement back on the front-burner, and Iran’s ongoing campaign to extend its ‘presence’ in Syria and elsewhere, it is safe to say that Tehran is making a lot of their neighbors very nervous. One small mistake or miscalculation, could send bullets, missiles, and drones flying. The situation might be analogous to someone ‘smoking in the dynamite room.’
These tensions, along with the chaos in Venezuela and its oil production halted — should provide a tailwind to higher oil prices. RCP, www.fortunascorner.com
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