The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) is a collaborative vision shared by India and Japan to create a growth corridor and industrial network connecting Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa across the Indo-Pacific region. It has been seen as being aimed at “countering the Belt and Road (the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative),” as there is a high level of overlapping in geographic coverage and cooperation fields between the AAGC and the Belt and Road Initiative. What’s proposed? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared that India and Japan would jointly develop an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor and a vision document of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor Partnership for Sustainable and Innovative Development was drawn up.30 April 2018
The challenge to China's New Silk Road
The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) is a collaborative vision shared by India and Japan to create a growth corridor and industrial network connecting Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa across the Indo-Pacific region. It has been seen as being aimed at “countering the Belt and Road (the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative),” as there is a high level of overlapping in geographic coverage and cooperation fields between the AAGC and the Belt and Road Initiative. What’s proposed? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared that India and Japan would jointly develop an Asia-Africa Growth Corridor and a vision document of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor Partnership for Sustainable and Innovative Development was drawn up.Corralling the People’s Armed Police: Centralizing Control to Reflect Centralized Budgets
By: Adrian Zenz
On March 21, the Chinese government announced a major restructuring of the People’s Armed Police (PAP) that will relegate all but one of its current units to other ministries, meaning that these units’ staff will no longer be part of the military service (National Audit Office, March 21). This came on the heels of another important change in December 2017, when command over the PAP, which had been shared between the Central Military and the State Council, was assigned exclusively to the former (South China Morning Post, December 28, 2017).
China's Defense Budget: What Everyone Is Missing
Nan Li
The recent session of China’s National People’s Congress approved an increase of China’s defense budget by 8.1 percent, which translates into an annual spending of $175 billion for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for 2018. Chinese analysts state that the increase keeps pace with China’s annual economic growth rate of 6.9 percent for 2017, and that unlike before 2016 when defense budget had gained mostly double-digit growth since the early 1990s, it has slowed down to single-digit growth for the past three consecutive years. Rivalry in Rejuvenation? Seeking New Paradigms for U.S.-China Strategic Competition
The U.S.-China relationship may shape the course of this century, and its future trajectory remains highly uncertain and contentious. Persistently, U.S. strategy has struggled to characterize and formulate a framework for America’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Today, as the U.S. and China dance on the precipice of a trade war, there is talk of a new Cold War in which the U.S. confronts a rival that is unique as not only a near-peer military competitor but also a rising economic and technological powerhouse. Increasingly, this competition is even extending into what has been characterized as “tech cold war” or an “artificial intelligence arms race.”[1,2] The status quo is seen as untenable by those who condemn the damages of years of “cyber-enabled economic warfare” and those who warn that our current course risks tumbling into Thucydides’ Trap.[3] Although high levels of cooperation and interdependence—particularly economic—between the U.S. and China could serve as a critical ballast for the relationship, such entanglement can just as readily constrain conflict as create frictions that render warfare more likely. Even as debates polarize, there is consensus that the stakes are high and the consequences of miscalculation would be historically deleterious.What Would Taiwan Do If China Invaded?
Russell Hsiao
“The American people have come to the aid of foreign countries in the name of freedom many times in our history; but Americans will not in good conscience support countries that are unwilling to defend themselves.” The former U.S. representative from Connecticut and retired Army Col. Rob Simmons made the statement back in 2005 while Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan stalled in funding critical defense acquisitions necessary for the country’s defense. The defense budget was held up largely due to partisan wrangling in the fledgling democracy and the protracted delay were raising serious doubts in Washington about Taiwan’s commitment to its own defense. While the former congressman’s statement was made more than a decade ago, it touched upon a fundamental issue in U.S.-Taiwan relations that remains relevant today: Would the United States come to the defense of Taiwan if it was invaded by China?China's Defense Budget: What Everyone Is Missing
Nan Li
The recent session of China’s National People’s Congress approved an increase of China’s defense budget by 8.1 percent, which translates into an annual spending of $175 billion for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for 2018. Chinese analysts state that the increase keeps pace with China’s annual economic growth rate of 6.9 percent for 2017, and that unlike before 2016 when defense budget had gained mostly double-digit growth since the early 1990s, it has slowed down to single-digit growth for the past three consecutive years. They also point out that China’s defense budget as a percentage of growth domestic product (GDP) and of total government spending and in terms of per capita spending on defense remains low compared with other major powers. China’s 2018 defense budget, for instance, constitutes only about 1.4 percent of its annual GDP if compared with the United States’ 3.4 percent and Russia’s 2.8 percent. China’s budget is also only one quarter of the United States’ budget. As a result, they argue that this year’s budget increase would benefit China’s military modernization moderately. When such an argument is reasonable, there are several other reasons that suggest that the budget increase may be more significant than it appears to be.Russia and China Could Stop America from Controlling the Seas in a War
Dave Majumdar
The United States Navy and Marine Corps have come to terms with the fact that America no longer has uncontested mastery of the seas for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the rise of near-peer competitors such as Russia and China and the proliferation of long-range precision-guided weapons, control of the sea can no longer be taken for granted. “The strategic environment is rapidly changing and the Navy and Marine Corps is engaged in a competition that they have not faced in over twenty years,” secretary of the navy Richard Spencer said in his written testimony on April 24 before the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Our PB19 budget continues to make strides in achieving that requirement to once again re-establish the standard that has ensured preeminence. This will be imperative to winning peer-on-peer competition, as we move forward to deliver enhanced distributed lethality.”
China’s Ever-Expanding Surveillance State
By Sarah Cook
China’s authoritarian regime is taking systematic steps to expand its surveillance of people and communication channels within the country, and the tentacles of the apparatus are slowly extending far beyond China’s borders. A series of revelations and activist arrests over the past month provide insight on this project and what it means for the future of China and the world.
Xinjiang as Incubator
Waiting For China's Collapse
by Dan Steinbock
Since the 1980s, a new generation of chaos capitalists have been undermining the progress of emerging economies. Under the pretext of “efficient markets," they seek to exploit real or perceived weaknesses. Recently, hedge funder Jim Chanos appeared on CNNMoney’s Markets Now program that was promoted heavily on the CNN: “Chanos got China right." Amid the global crisis, Chanos predicted that China would collapse. Nevertheless, CNN characterized his 2009 call as “brilliant."Dealing With China’s High-Tech Ambitions
President Donald Trump’s handling of the trade relationship with China poses a threat both to the U.S. and to the world economy — but even his harshest critics agree with him on one thing. China’s bid to dominate the high-tech industries of the future often bends or breaks the rules of liberal international commerce, and needs to be checked. What’s important, and what this administration finds so difficult, is to be smart about it. Through its “Made in China 2025” blueprint and assorted plans and directives, China’s government aims to move the country up the manufacturing value chain and dominate advanced technologies such as robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and biomedicine. In this effort, China has advantages — an enormous (and relatively closed) domestic market, a capacious budget for supporting preferred industries, and a technocratic government facing no organized domestic opposition.
The ISIS triangle which allows militants to disappear calls for a joint operation between Iraq, Syria and the US
Hassan Hassan
A delicate security triangle is forming along the Syrian-Iraqi borders. Operational lines of separation have prevented the United States, Iraq and the Damascus camp from working together to fight ISIS. But new complications have forced a fresh dynamic that effectively enables the US to target ISIS outside its established jurisdiction by proxy, through the Iraqis. The new dynamic, while still nascent, is a product of improvised arrangements between Washington and Moscow to prevent aerial collision and to demarcate areas of operation during the fight against the extremist group. The two sides agreed to have the Euphrates river as the “deconfliction” line, despite obvious flaws more apparent now than a few months ago.
“Russia-West ties have plummeted dramatically”
KANWAL SIBAL
The West and Russia have had an inherently conflictual relationship even if, historically, the two have collaborated.For the West Russia is not fully Western, whereas Russia identifies itself as a European country, though when rebuffed it projects itself as a Eurasian and Slavic country with its own civilizational characteristics. Culturally, Russia is European, but geopolitically it has transcended Europe because of its huge size, formidable strategic capacities and past superpower status. Within a security framework, the NATO-Russia Council implicitly recognized this, but not the EU within an economic framework, as in its response to Russia’s overtures after the Soviet collapse, it offered not an equal partnership but accommodation within its Neighborhood Policy.
McMaster and Commander Can a national-security adviser retain his integrity if the President has none?
By Patrick Radden Keefe
When Donald Trump had a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin on the morning of March 20th, the two were at an excruciatingly delicate juncture. American intelligence officials had concluded that Russia had interfered in the 2016 Presidential election, with the goal of helping Trump win, and Trump had become the subject of an investigation, by the special counsel Robert Mueller, into allegations of collusion between the Kremlin and the Trump campaign. On March 4th, a former Russian spy and his daughter had been poisoned with a military-grade nerve agent in the English city of Salisbury. Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, announced that the Russian state appeared to be responsible and expelled twenty-three Russian diplomats from the U.K.Export Control Reform: Better Late than Never
By Rachel Zissimos
Last Thursday, the Trump administration released a Presidential Memorandumthat sensibly reforms U.S. conventional arms transfer policy. The memo brings U.S. policy into closer alignment with the economic and security interests of the U.S. and its allies, through changes that reflect the rapid pace of technological innovation and the competitive global environment. An updated policy was sorely needed. Many regulations and agreements governing U.S. arms transfers date back to when the U.S. maintained a comfortable lead in military innovation. Since that time, globalization has rapidly expanded other nations’ access to advanced technologies and complicated efforts to contain their spread and use.
Technological Innovation and the Geopolitics of Energy
By Severin Fischer
In this article, Severin Fischer discusses three of the most important recent and upcoming technological advancements in energy – horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing, photovoltaics and batteries – and their potential impact on international politics. Further, he outlines why China and the US will have the biggest impact on future discussions on the geopolitics of energy. Technological change has a tremendous impact on societies in general, including international politics. This chapter discusses the most important recent and upcoming technological advancements in energy – horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing, photovoltaics, and batteries – and their possible influence on geopolitical dynamics. For different reasons, China and the US will have the biggest impact on the way we will discuss the geopolitics of energy in the future.Beating Moscow at its Main Game: Espionage
The Cipher Brief
We talk a lot these days about smart power and hard power and soft power even the sharp power of manipulating information. In the end, power and influence have always been exercised in multiple dimensions – military, economic, political, ideological. Some states are strong in all dimensions, like the United States in the 1950s or the British in the 19th century. Others have limited capabilities, like ideological China under Mao. How do we deal with a state whose power and influence are largely one dimensional: a state like Russia which extends itself through spy craft? Indeed, Russia is a unique type of power: an espionage state.
Russia’s Travails in Syria and Other Russian Military News
Russia: Need A win, Not Spin
Russia is hustling to carry out some damage control in Syria after two embarrassing defeats. First there was the loss of several hundred Russian military contractors during a failed February attack on American and Kurdish forces in eastern Syria. In April there was the U.S., British and French attack on Assad chemical weapons facilities with 105 smart bombs and missiles. The Syrian air defense system, using recently updated equipment, failed to stop any of the incoming missiles, all of which apparently hit their targets and did so nearly simultaneously. Russia later admitted it did not use its S-400 air defense system in Syria because the incoming missiles, as per previous agreements, avoided all Russian facilities. Russia still insists that the Syrian air defense system shot down a lot of the incoming missiles but has not provided any proof. Such proof would be easy to locate and display if it existed, but it doesn’t and Russia is left insisting that its S-400 system, which it recently sold to Turkey, could have shot down the incoming missiles. Meanwhile Russia says it is sending some S-300 batteries to Syria to upgrade the Syrian air defenses and that these would also knock down incoming missiles. It is uncertain when the S-300 systems will arrive in Syria, or whether they will be sent at all.
Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s In Syria
By COLIN CLARK
EC-130 Compass Call electronic warfare aircraft
GEOINT: The Compass Call is supposed to be one of America’s foremost electronic warfare weapons, but the EC-130s flying near Syria are being attacked and disabled “in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet,” the head of Special Operations Command said here today. “Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries. They are testing us everyday, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera,” Gen. Raymond Thomas told an audience of some 2,000 intelligence professionals.An illusory victory: Was “mission accomplished” in Syria?
Dror Michman and Yael Mizrahi-Arnaud
After the April 13 attack on Syrian chemical facilities, the leaders of the United States, France, and Britain—who jointly conducted the strike—expressed satisfaction at the outcome. As Trump tweeted the next morning: A perfectly executed strike last night. Thank you to France and the United Kingdom for their wisdom and the power of their fine Military. Could not have had a better result. Mission Accomplished! But was this really a “mission accomplished”? The attack itself was quite limited, and an analysis of other paths not taken indicates that better options—to accomplish the intended goal of preventing the further use of chemical weapons, as well as sending a stronger message—were likely available.
Russia Widens EW War, ‘Disabling’ EC-130s OR AC-130s In Syria
By COLIN CLARK
GEOINT: The Compass Call is supposed to be one of America’s foremost electronic warfare weapons, but the EC-130s flying near Syria are being attacked and disabled “in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet,” the head of Special Operations Command said here today. “Right now in Syria we are operating in the most aggressive EW environment on the planet from our adversaries. They are testing us everyday, knocking our communications down, disabling our EC-130s, etcetera,” Gen. Raymond Thomas told an audience of some 2,000 intelligence professionals.
Gas Geoeconomics In Europe: Make Russia A "Normal" Gas Supplier Again
By Gabriel Collins, Anna Mikulska
The U.S. should ramp up its energy diplomacy in Europe and help better insulate our European partners from Russian gas coercion. Gas supplies are a powerful tool of geoeconomics--using “economic instruments to produce beneficial geopolitical results.” To date, Moscow has dominated this game. The shale revolution offers Washington and its partners an opportunity to right the balance and further harness the benefits of globally abundant natural gas. European consumers’ economic security would benefit—and with it, the Continent’s overall security in the face of increasingly aggressive Russian behavior.Israel Confronts Its Changing Demographics
As Israel hits 70, its shifting demographic composition could strain the country's already contentious social situation, undermining its security. High birth rates among the Israeli Bedouin and Haredi populations stand to have a more profound effect on the country's economic and diplomatic future than will the changing ratio of Arab Palestinians to Israeli Jews within the borders of the former British Mandate for Palestine. Unless the two groups adapt their opposing cultural, educational and social outlooks, they could undermine Israel's economic and strategic strength.L’Etat of the Union
By FRED KAPLAN
In a rousing speech before a joint session of Congress on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron criticized trade wars, celebrated international institutions, rejected extreme nationalism, stood up for science, expressed hopes that the United States would “one day” return to the Paris talks on climate change, and defended the Iran nuclear deal. In short, the morning after a lavish White House state dinner and reports of a blooming “bromance” between the French and American presidents, Macron took several serious jabs at the policies and beliefs of his host, Donald Trump. At times, his nearly hour-long speech resembled a modern State of the Union, with lawmakers in half the chamber—in this case, the Democratic half—rising and cheering lustily, while those in the other half clapped politely or sat on their hands.
The futility of prohibiting bitcoin trade
Rahul Matthan
Now that the technology has been banned and we have driven all who use it underground, bitcoins will be purchased through cash or other untraceable commodities Even though every bitcoin transaction is recorded and open to inspection, no-one knows the person behind the address who made the trade. Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) prohibited, with immediate effect, all regulated entities from providing services to anyone who deals with or settles any virtual currencies, citing concerns about the risks that these virtual currencies pose in the context of consumer protection, market integrity and money laundering. The true reason behind it is not entirely clear.Quantum radar to render stealth technologies ineffective
David Szondy
Stealth technology may not be very stealthy in the future thanks to a US$2.7-million project by the Canadian Department of National Defence to develop a new quantum radar system. The project, led by Jonathan Baugh at the University of Waterloo's Institute for Quantum Computing (IQC), uses the phenomenon of quantum entanglement to eliminate heavy background noise, thereby defeating stealth anti-radar technologies to detect incoming aircraft and missiles with much greater accuracy.29 April 2018
Do Terrorist Groups Really Die? A Warning
by Antonia Ward
With the collapse of ISIS and loss of the majority of its territory in Syria and Iraq by the end of 2017, the world was relieved at the news of the “end” of the terrorist-cum-insurgent group. This response paralleled a different, but not altogether dissimilar, celebration following the death of Osama Bin Laden in 2011. By 2012, many stated that al-Qaeda's power and influence had declined due to the loss of its charismatic and skilled leader. However, as the case of al-Qaeda shows, while terrorist groups may suffer periods of decline they are extremely resilient and adaptable. It is dangerous for the West to underestimate them; most terrorist groups experience resurgence.Why Colombo remains a challenge for New Delhi
By ANA PARARAJASINGHAM
Former Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s resounding performance at the local-council elections in early February has prompted the observation that Rajapaksa is back in politics and poised to regain political power. This is a blow to the “unity” government that replaced the Rajapaksa regime in January 2015. The regime change that resulted in the formation of a “unity” government came about when former Rajapaksa loyalists joined the opposition right-leaning United National Party (UNP). The “unity” government suffered its first setback when a Rajapaksa-backed no-confidence motion was made against Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe on April 4, and 16 members of the “unity” government voted for the motion.
Sounding The Alarm About A New Russian Cyber Threat
RACHEL MARTIN
In a rare joint statement, the U.S and U.K. last week warned that Russia is actively preparing for a future cyberwar against the West. Of particular concern, according to a joint technical alert issued by the U.S. Computer Emergency Response Team, is a Russian cyberattack on network infrastructure devices such as routers, switches and firewalls. Compromised routers, the alert says, help Russia "support espionage, extract intellectual property, maintain persistent access to victim networks, and potentially lay a foundation for future offensive operations."Rivalry in Rejuvenation? Seeking New Paradigms for U.S.-China Strategic Competition
By Elsa B. Kania
The U.S.-China relationship may shape the course of this century, and its future trajectory remains highly uncertain and contentious. Persistently, U.S. strategy has struggled to characterize and formulate a framework for America’s relationship with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Today, as the U.S. and China dance on the precipice of a trade war, there is talk of a new Cold War in which the U.S. confronts a rival that is unique as not only a near-peer military competitor but also a rising economic and technological powerhouse. Increasingly, this competition is even extending into what has been characterized as “tech cold war” or an “artificial intelligence arms race.”[1,2] The status quo is seen as untenable by those who condemn the damages of years of “cyber-enabled economic warfare” and those who warn that our current course risks tumbling into Thucydides’ Trap.[3] Although high levels of cooperation and interdependence—particularly economic—between the U.S. and China could serve as a critical ballast for the relationship, such entanglement can just as readily constrain conflict as create frictions that render warfare more likely. Even as debates polarize, there is consensus that the stakes are high and the consequences of miscalculation would be historically deleterious.
FACTSHEET: CHINAS TERRITORIAL STRATAGEM - EXTENDING MILITARY RANGE & INFLUENCE THROUGH RECLAMATION & OCCUPATION OF THE SPRATLY WATERS, SOUTH CHINA SEA
S.A. Cavanagh
China’s Aggressive Move to Occupy the Spratly regional waters through Reclamation has proved an effective stratagem, for projection of political, economic and military power. The Hague has ruled China has no traditional claims to the disputed region and the Spratlys are “rocks not islands.” China continues to reclaim and militarize several strategic islands (reefs) and occupies them. The United States, French and British navies exercise freedom of navigation near the new islands, as China warns it will use military force to defend new territorial claims. China has tactically and strategically extended its military “range and influence” with navel bases, airstrips, radar, communications, missile installations and shelters. China has bet on reclamation and occupation and won.
China's Pursuit of Overseas Security
Research Questions
How will China protect its citizens and their economic assets in distant countries?
What sort of military capabilities or other arrangements might China pursue accordingly?
What will China's approach to security abroad mean for the United States and its allies and partners?
China's ascent as the world's second-largest economy has brought the country tremendous prosperity, but integration into the global economy has also exposed growing numbers of its citizens and their assets to potential harm. This report examines China's pursuit of security for its overseas interests. It surveys Chinese writings and Western reporting to describe the country's likely approach to protecting its economic and strategic interests abroad. The report concludes that China is likely to pursue a distinctive approach that features a far more limited military role than has been the case for the United States or imperial powers of previous centuries. Instead, China will likely rely on a blend of military, paramilitary, civilian contractors, and host-nation forces to carry out a more limited range of nonwar missions and tasks to safeguard international interests. This approach carries both opportunities and concerns for U.S. interests abroad. The PLA could prove a helpful partner to the United States in a variety of nonwar missions, such as humanitarian aid/disaster relief and counterpiracy operations. However, Chinese use of paramilitary forces and provision of arms to host-nation–provided forces could complicate the interests of the United States and its allies in some regions.
Taiwan Caught in the Middle of the U.S.-China Trade Tiff
By Riley Walters
Taiwanese business executives and government officials are deeply worried as the United States and China, its two largest trading partners, tee off in a tit-for-tat trade tiff. Taiwan finds itself caught in the middle. Taiwan is not unduly troubled by China’s industrial policies. Beijing’s policies, while illiberal, are predictable. The trade measures of the current U.S. administration, however, are both unpredictable and more likely to increase costs for Taiwanese investors in the short-term. One can disagree with its remedies, but the Trump administration is not wrong for trying to push back against an ever-aggressive Chinese industrial policy. Certainly, few countries in Asia would protest against America pushing back against the unfair practices that restrict investment and require technology transfer. Nor are other nations keen about Beijing’s threats to ban foreign companies from accessing Chinese markets. In fact, many of their companies face the same problems.Does America Really Need to Fear China?
Lyle J. Goldstein
These days, the “China threat syndrome” is everywhere to behold in American political life. A chorus of cheers celebrates the upcoming trade war even though many key American producers, above all farmers, could be grievously damaged. Another group heralds the return of the TPP as the ultimate “aircraft carrier” that will supposedly finally sink China’s brash economic ascent. American universities are said to be under assault by legions of Chinese Communist infiltrators. Beijing is accused of trying to upstage and undermineWashington’s diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, that seeks to knit Europe and Asia ever closer, is viewed as a menaceto the “rules based order” and American global hegemony. Beijing stands accused of promoting environmental disasters from Africa to Southeast Asia to the Arctic. What seems to gall American strategists, above all, is that China has dared to set up a string of reef bases in the South China Sea (athwart the most important artery of global trade!) and now appears to be producing warships“like sausages.”How AI Could Destabilize Nuclear Deterrence
BY ELIAS GROLL
When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced last month that his country was developing an autonomous nuclear-powered torpedo, it marked a milestone in the marriage of nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence — that is, if the weapon does what he claims. The torpedo, armed with a nuclear warhead, would be launched from the Arctic Ocean and travel at high speeds for hundreds of miles until it reached its target — probably an American harbor — all the while maneuvering autonomously to evade underwater defenses and outrunning any adversaries.Macron and Merkel Will Put on Their Best Poker Faces With Trump
Germany is looking for a negotiated solution to trade and sanction disputes with the United States. France is using Brexit and colder U.S.-German relations to try to become the main intermediary between the United States and the European Union. Paris is also trying to use the current global environment to make progress on its long-sought goal of deeper European political and strategic autonomy.Former Head Of Intelligence For The Israeli Defense Force: ‘This Will Be Israel’s Most Dangerous May Since The 1967 War’
The title above is from Benjamin Kerstein’s April 24, 2018 article in the Jewish publication, Algemeiner. “When I look at the month of May, I say there wasn’t a month of May so dangerous Israeli has faced since before the 1967 [Arab-Israeli] War,” said Amos Yadlin, the former head of Intelligence for Israel’s Defense Force (IDF), in a recent interview with the Israeli daily publication – Yedioth Ahronoth. “In the last Independence Day ceremonies, I was reminded of the independence ceremonies of 1967,” General Yadlin said.
VICENTE FOX: THE AMERICAN DREAM IS DEAD, AND DONALD TRUMP KILLED IT | OPINION
It has been more than a year since Donald Trump was elected, and since then he has tweeted more policies and complaints than any other political leader. He has put international relations at risk and ended the American dream for hundreds of thousands of Americans and non-Americans. Is there anything he hasn’t done? Recently, he went bonkers and in just 280 characters launched the worst threats he has ever addressed to our country. He has called Mexicans rapists, criminals, the worst of the worst. He has threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and deport hundreds of thousands of young Dreamers. Why? Because he feels like it.
Germany's Incredibly Shrinking Role on the World Stage
By Matthias Gebauer
With a wayward president at the helm in the United States, the world has become a more dangerous place. In response, though, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is once again steering Germany to the foreign policy sidelines, clearing the way for French President Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron's En Marche party doesn't yet have a single seat in the European Parliament, but when the French president appeared in the body's plenary hall in Strasbourg last Tuesday, it already seemed as though he was in control. Macron shook hands with Federica Mogherini, the European Union's chief diplomat, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the enthusiastic European Commission president while a number of parliamentarians gave him a standing ovation. Others, meanwhile, hid behind signs castigating the French president for participating in the missile attacks in Syria. Macron stepped up to the lectern, where his speech, laid there by an aide, was already waiting.Russian Social Media Influence Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe
by Todd C. Helmus, Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Andrew Radin, Madeline Magnuson, Joshua Mendelsohn, William Marcellino, Andriy Bega, Zev Winkelman
What are the critical ingredients to countering these campaigns?
A RAND Corporation study examined Russian-language content on social media and the broader propaganda threat posed to the region of former Soviet states that include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, Moldova and Belarus. In addition to employing a state-funded multilingual television network, operating various Kremlin-supporting news websites, and working through several constellations of Russia-backed "civil society" organizations, Russia employs a sophisticated social media campaign that includes news tweets, nonattributed comments on web pages, troll and bot social media accounts, and fake hashtag and Twitter campaigns. Nowhere is this threat more tangible than in Ukraine, which has been an active propaganda battleground since the 2014 Ukrainian revolution. Other countries in the region look at Russia's actions and annexation of Crimea and recognize the need to pay careful attention to Russia's propaganda campaign.
The world’s biggest economies in 2018
Rob Smith
The United States has the largest economy in the world at $20.4 trillion, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which shows the US economy increased from around $19.4 trillion last year. China follows, with $14 trillion, which is an increase of more than $2 trillion in comparison to 2017. Japan is in third place with an economy of $5.1 trillion, up from $4.87 trillion a year previously.Could The US Win World War III Without Using Nuclear Weapons?
by Dan Plesch
As the US, Russia and China test each other’s patience and strategic focus, speculation about the chances of a world war has hit a new high. But many of the people seriously engaged in this weighty discussion often get it wrong.As Space War Looms, Air Force's Biggest Weakness May Be How It Buys Satellites
Loren Thompson
The Air Force's space community is in a near panic over recent advances that Russia and China have made in space. The problem isn't that Moscow and Beijing are matching the performance of U.S. military satellites -- it's that they are fielding systems for degrading or destroying ours. The threat is appearing in many forms. Cyber attacks on the ground control centers for satellite constellations. Jamming of downlink signals. Threatening maneuvers by spacecraft in the same orbital planes as U.S. satellites. Many of the details are secret, but signs of concern among U.S. military commanders are unmistakable. America's heavy dependence on space for communications, navigation, reconnaissance, weather forecasts and warning of attack has become a vulnerability.
The battlefield of information warfare has been leveled
BY GREG KEELEY
Warfare used to be somewhat predictable. Your enemy wore a different uniform, the bad guys tried to kill you with bullets and bombs, the food was awful and things went “boom” in the night. The new reality is strikingly different. Combat can now be waged without so much as a puff of smoke. As with kinetic conflict, there will be winners and losers. Information and cyber is perhaps the most acute issue for military and counter-terrorism planners and operators. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the next likely crisis to confront the West may be the result of Russia or an Islamist terror group attacking critical infrastructure or military grids. The propagation of asymmetric warfare has been increasingly mitigated by the obtainability of, and the surge in information operations. The result could be vast pecuniary and societal damage to the U.S. and our allies.Protect sensitive data with these five free encryption apps
By Mark Kaelin
Numerous high-profile events in 2017 and early 2018 have made it abundantly clear that all enterprises and government agencies are responsible and liable for the protection of personal data collected from customers and clients—no exceptions. New regulations, such as the GDPR, which goes into effect May 25, 2018, will back those expectations of protection with substantial penalties and fines for the noncompliance. To avoid potential fines, organizations need to demonstrate initiative by establishing measurable security protocols that protect collected personal data. One of most common methods for protecting stored data is encryption. The software required to encrypt files and hard drives is readily available and is often offered for free or at low cost. Therefore, the establishment of an encryption protocol for your enterprise does not have to incur a large outlay of resources. The five encryption applications listed in this article are all free to use and perform their function using the highest industry-standard encryption algorithms available.
Artificial Intelligence: Welcome to the Age of Disruptive Surprise
BRUCE E. PEASE
With the last few years of progress in artificial intelligence, it is hard to look forward without excitement…and apprehension. If you are paying attention at all, you are wondering what lies ahead. Will it be great? Will it be disastrous for many? Surely because we are inventing it, we have a good sense of what is being spawned? But no, this technology feels different. It almost feels like it is being discovered, rather than being invented. It will be big, it will impact our lives and our society. It will be disruptive…and we don’t know how.CyberWar: The Neutron Bomb Of The Internet Age
CyberWar in its many forms presents an unprecedented threat to major companies, smaller companies, non-profits, and the military/intelligence entities. Companies can be ruined, elections rigged, wealth stolen, and wars lost. We have seen this, and so have our adversaries. America has trained many of their best cyber practitioners, as we did their nuclear scientists, and they have attacked with a vengeance that is unrelenting and growing in sophistication. In the early nuclear age, a so-called neutron bomb was developed. The weapon killed not by a large blast, but with a huge barrage of neutrons that would kill anyone in its path with contaminating radiation but leave buildings and other wealth intact; a lethal and deadly prospect. Today, cyberwar is the neutron bomb equivalent of the internet age – a weapon that can can destroy, rig, steal, confuse companies and countries while not destroying their physical assets.
U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World
by David Ochmanek, Peter A. Wilson, Brenna Allen, John Speed Meyers, Carter C. Price
Research Questions
What capability areas merit highest priority for modernizing U.S. forces to meet emerging challenges? How much would it cost to develop and deploy capabilities and posture enhancements called for by the emerging security environment? This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of conflicts that could arise involving any of five potential adversaries: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Salafist-jihadi groups worldwide. The report finds that U.S. forces today are larger than necessary to fight a single major war, are failing to keep pace with the modernizing forces of great power adversaries, are poorly postured to meet key challenges in Europe and East Asia, and are insufficiently trained and ready to get the most operational utility from many of its active component units. The report recommends a host of enhancements to the capabilities and posture of U.S. forces and offers three alternative force planning constructs to help ensure that defense resources are, in the future, applied to the highest-priority needs.Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge
by Richard H. Speier
While the world bemoans the lack of inspired solutions for dealing with the North Korean missile threat, another danger looms under the public's radar: that of hypersonic missiles and their possible spread into international commerce. Hypersonic missiles travel at a speed of one mile per second or more—at least five times the speed of sound. They are able to evade and conceal their precise targets from defenses until just seconds before impact. This leaves targeted states with almost no time to respond. Additionally, such weapons are capable of destroying targets without any explosives, using their kinetic energy alone. Hypersonic missiles require a reconsideration of traditional second-strike calculations, as they have the potential to decapitate a nation's leadership before it has the opportunity to launch a counter attack.Modern Political Warfare Current Practices and Possible Responses
What is political warfare?
How is it (or an appropriate analogous term) applied today?
How might the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, most effectively respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve its ends and protect its interests?
The United States today faces a number of actors who employ a wide range of political, informational, military, and economic measures to influence, coerce, intimidate, or undermine U.S. interests or those of friends and allies; many of these measures are often collectively referred to as "political warfare." This report analyzes political warfare as it is practiced today by both state and nonstate actors, and provides detailed recommendations regarding the most effective ways that the U.S. government, along with its allies and partners, can respond to or engage in this type of conflict to achieve U.S. ends and protect U.S. interests.
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