Questioning on Russian election interference and how the Trump White House handles staff clearances dominated the worldwide threat hearing Tuesday, as the Senate intelligence committee grilled leaders of the FBI, CIA, NSA, DNI, DIA and NGA over the contents of the 2018 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.
Cipher Brief experts who used to contribute to, compile or testify on the annual threat assessment weigh in below.
DNI Dan Coats warned the U.S. is under cyberattack, by hacking campaigns backed by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, as well as terrorists and transnational criminals. He listed North Korea as presenting the most volatile and confrontational weapons of mass destruction threat.” He said terrorists like ISIS, al Qaeda and Hezbollah would continue to be dangerous. And he warned that Russia, China and Iran are all trying to find ways to expand their reach, from land to sea to space.
Coats also mentioned a key warning from the Worldwide Threat Assessment: “The risk of interstate conflict, including among great powers, is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War. The most immediate threats of regional interstate conflict in the next year come from North Korea and from Saudi-Iranian use of proxies in their rivalry.”
“During the Cold War, it struck me that violence as a result of geopolitical issues between the Soviet Union and the West were carefully weighed. That sort of precision seems less apparent these days.”
Looking ahead on actions North Korea may take: “In the wake of accelerated missile testing since 2016, North Korea is likely to press ahead with more tests in 2018, and its Foreign Minister said that Kim may be considering conducting an atmospheric nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean,” reads the Worldwide Threat Assessment.
Amb. Joseph DeTrani, former Director for East Asia Operations, CIA
“I think Director Pompeo’s assessment is right on the mark. All indications are that North Korea will retain and enhance its arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. Thus the prospects in 2018, assuming the proposed summit with South Korean President Moon Je-in or direct talks with the U.S. don’t get North Korea to halt its missile launches and nuclear tests, is that Kim Jung Un will resume nuclear tests and missile launches. An atmospheric nuclear test over the Pacific Ocean would be even more provocative and threatening than previous tests. Director Pompeo also assessed that Kim Jung Un may not be receiving the best information and counsel from his advisers. If true, that’s very disconcerting. That means that Kim Jung Un may be making decisions that affect the security in the region based on faulty information.”
Todd Rosenblum, former senior Pentagon and Homeland Security official in the Obama administration
“An atmospheric test would be a dangerous, destabilizing gambit by the North. Detonating a nuclear device in the atmosphere over a land mass would generate an electronic magnetic pulse shock wave that would destroy most of a nation’s electronic lifeblood, and catastrophic environmental damage, but not mass casualties on the ground. It would devastate a nation without killing people. A North Korean decision to demonstrate the will and capacity to conduct an atmospheric test over the Pacific would be a grave escalation to stability and heightened threat to the United States. North Korea has threatened such a test in the past, and may have the technical ability to do so now or in the near future. Such an act would upend political dynamics in the region, likely moving China to cut off even more lifeblood from the regime. We and our allies almost certainly will focus on rapidly increasing our ballistic missile defense capabilities in theater and at home.”
On Russian electoral interference and the current administration:“Persistent and disruptive cyber operations will continue against the United States and our European allies, using elections as opportunities to undermine democracy, sow discord and undermine our values,” said DNI Coats. All of the national security chiefs backed the 2017 assessment that Russia had tried to interfere with the 2016 election, and would likely try again, but Coats and the other chiefs also admitted under questioning that none of them had been specifically ordered by the president to focus on Russian interference.
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Jim Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence
“I thought his comments were significant: the acknowledgment that no one is in charge in the government for thwarting Russian interference in our election processes. Good on him.”
Steve Hall, former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service
“There seems to still be fatigued tension between all parts of the intelligence community and this administration, which continues to poo-poo the conclusion that undermines everything: Russia is interested in being disrupted to all Western democracies and specifically the United States. All of the Trump-appointed leaders of the IC seem to be saying the right thing, so in a sense I feel reassured because there doesn’t seem to be much equivocation. At least publicly, they seem to be hewing to what the previous leadership of the intelligence community has said on this topic.”
John Sipher, former member of the CIA’s Senior Intelligence Service
“I am confident that the Intelligence Directors support the previous Administration’s findings and understand the nature of the threat. They likely see intelligence every day that underscores the aggressive actions of the Kremlin. I also believe that they will continue to monitor the situation and seek to uncover continued Kremlin meddling. However, a true defense and effort to deter Putin will take more than just the intelligence and law enforcement agencies. The President and White House have to acknowledge the threat and mobilize and all of government approach. Also, the public sector needs to educate and prod the private sector to take the threat seriously. It will require the participation of the social media and cyber community to deal with this threat moving forward. However, if the President does not take on this challenge, it will be a continuing threat to our country and damage the public’s faith in our institutions and elections.”
On Iran’s cyber ambitions: “We assess that Iran will continue working to penetrate US and Allied networks for espionage and to position itself for potential future cyberattacks, although its intelligence services primarily focus on Middle Eastern adversaries—especially Saudi Arabia and Israel,” according to the Threat Assessment.
Leslie Ireland, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Intelligence and Analysis
“If you look at Iran’s history on support for terrorist organizations and proxy groups, the level of deniability is very important in their approach for an asymmetric option in any kind of conflict. Cyber security is going to be one of their more important, if potentially not most important asymmetric capability in the coming months and years. This would particularly be the case as the JCPOA – and as long as Iran adheres to it – has their nuclear program in a box.”
Todd Rosenblum, former senior Pentagon and Homeland Security official in the Obama administration
“Iran is a state sponsor of digital intelligence collection and operations inside the U.S. homeland. New efforts by Iran will not be its first. Iran earlier attempted to disrupt operations on Wall Street between 2011 – 2013 by inundating financial sector servers with denial of service (DDOS) attacks that were not particularly effective. Iran is far from the only state sponsor of digital collection and operations inside the homeland, but there are unique challenges associated with Tehran’s activities. Iran is in a semi-hot war with the United States via a host of proxies and even direct attacks against us and our allies across the Middle East and South Asia. New strike methods via the cyber domain allow Iran to somewhat level the playing field as far as reach and potential for domestic disruption. We will continue to rely on intelligence and law enforcement supporting, or in support of, the private sector and state and local governments in the identification and mitigation of Iranian and other digital incursions.”
Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran, ODNI
“The Threat Assessment comments on Iran are consistent with previous assessments and do a strong job of capturing the Iran threat. Well written, cogent, and showing strong analytic tradecraft, the Iran portions also show that Tehran has yet to face any setbacks beyond the JCPOA which restricted its nuclear enterprise while simultaneously placing this program under an unprecedented level of international oversight. The report makes it clear that Iran’s regional, cyber, missile, terrorist and other malign activities continue at a strong pace, itself quite a statement given the broad geography and complexity of the issues. This was a sobering and important report in part because it implicitly warns that Iran will place American lives, allies, and interests at risk, to include mortal risk, in the coming year.”
On former White House staffer Rob Porter, and issues with security clearances inside the White House: FBI Director Christopher Wray contradicted the White House’s timeline of events. White House Deputy Press Secretary Raj Shah had told reporters Porter’s background investigation was ongoing. Then Wray told the Senate intelligence committee the FBI had completed a background investigation, “in late July… Soon thereafter, we received requests for follow up inquiry and we did the follow up and provided that information in November and then we administratively closed the file in January.”
Lt. Gen. (ret.) Jim Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence
“As DNI Coats put it: ‘Sometimes it is necessary to have some type of preliminary clearance in order to fill a slot, but…access has to be limited in terms of the kinds of information they can be in a position to receive or not receive.’ If this were GS-12 Porter in Agency X, there would be no question about access to classified information. This crowd has a different standard.”
DNI Coats’ last warning was local. He called the U.S. “failure to address our long-term fiscal situation,” which has increased the national debt to “over $20 trillion and growing… unsustainable.”
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