By EMMA ANDERSON
Europeans have barely had time to draw breath after a big year of elections in 2017. But it won’t be long before much of the Continent heads for the polls in 2018.Some of Europe’s political big hitters will be in action. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán are seeking re-election while Silvio Berlusconi is campaigning to get his party back into power in Italy. What’s at stake: The provocative and blatantly politically incorrect incumbent Miloš Zeman is hoping to win another term after becoming the first Czech president to be directly elected in 2013. If Zeman succeeds and fellow populist Andrej Babiš manages to form a stable government as prime minister, it is likely to be even more difficult for the European Commission to make the Czech Republic fall in line on issues like immigration and gun control.
Who to watch: While Zeman may easily win the first round of voting (on January 12-13), he could face a tricky run-off if he doesn’t win an overall majority. That vote would be held January 26-27. Zeman’s toughest challenger is Jiří Drahoš, a former president of the Czech Academy of Sciences. A recent poll by Czech Television suggested the country could be headed for a cliffhanger, with Zeman winning the first round and both men getting 45 percent of the vote in a run-off.
What’s at stake: Italy will elect new members to both chambers of parliament in March, which will also be the first time a controversial new electoral law will be used.
The law, which favors coalitions over individual parties, was fiercely contested by the populist 5Star Movement, which refuses to strike alliances with traditional parties. The anti-establishment party argued the legislation was designed to scupper its chances of power: Polls indicate the 5Star Movement could emerge as the largest single party, while the ruling Democratic Party (PD) has been slipping in support amid political infighting.
But electoral experts warn that if surveys are accurate, the new system won’t be able to produce a clear-cut winner, meaning old-style political bargaining will be needed to try to avoid an impasse.
Who to watch: Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi has made a comeback this election cycle to lead his center-right Forza Italia. He was ousted from public office after a tax fraud conviction in 2013 but has returned rejuvenated to the political scene. Berlusconi is hoping to overturn a ban against him taking office, but is also looking out for alternative candidates if he is unsuccessful.
A regional vote in Sicily in November gave Berlusconi’s party hope that it could emerge as the election victor by teaming up with Matteo Salvini’s Northern League. But Salvini suspects his potential partner has commitment issues and could also be eyeing Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni’s PD.
Russian presidential election — March 18
What’s at stake: Vladimir Putin is seeking yet another term as president: He’s already been in power for nearly 18 years, either as president or prime minister.
Who to watch: With his approval ratings exceeding 80 percent, Putin doesn’t face much competition. He’s on track to become the longest serving Russian leadersince Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. On top of that, his main political rival, Alexei Navalny, is barred from running due to a conviction for embezzlement, which Navalny has called a political move to stop him challenging Putin. Navalny recently called on his supporters to boycott the vote.
One challenger is Ksenia Sobchak, a former pin-up and socialite with ties to Putin, whose candidacy sparked furious accusations of Kremlin trickery by the opposition. Despite her involvement in anti-Putin activism, critics have remained suspicious of her motives. Navalny has accused her of acting as a “spoiler” candidate, coordinating her bid with the Kremlin.
Hungarian parliamentary election — Spring 2018
What’s at stake: The exact date of the election has still to be set but one thing is already clear: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s right-wing populist Fidesz party has a big lead over its rivals. The party is hoping to regain its two-thirds majority in parliament, required to make constitutional changes, after losing this so-called “super-majority” in a 2015 by-election. To get there, Orbán has been campaigning beyond the country’s borders to reach Hungarian citizens in surrounding countries.
Who to watch: The far-right Jobbik party is Fidesz’s biggest rival, and some leftists desperate to oust Orbán are even advocating bridging the political spectrum to work with it. Jobbik itself has been working to distance itself from its more extreme past as the election nears. But the threat of a 660 million-forint (over €2 million) fine from the country’s State Audit Office could hurt the party’s chances. The office said the party had received illegal campaign financing assistance. Jobbik leaders have called the fine a “death sentence” for Hungarian democracy.
Although he is not running for office, another figure in the election is Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros. Orbán and Soros were once allies but have become bitter enemies. Soros accuses Orbán of being a dangerous autocrat. Orbán recently accused Soros of trying to undermine him.
Swedish general election — September 9
What’s at stake: Social Democrat Prime Minister Stefan Löfven hopes to win another term, and polls have continued to show his party ahead. But his Green Party coalition partners have been hovering dangerously close to — if not below — the 4 percent threshold to enter the Riksdag (parliament) in recent polls. If the Greens don’t make it into parliament, the Social Democrats may well need a new partner. Alternatively, the center-right Alliance, led by the conservative Moderates, may get a chance to govern.
Who to watch: The nationalist Sweden Democrats (SD) aim for a further boost after a surge in support at the 2014 election. Polls show they could make some gains, with the most recent showing them at around 15 to 16 percent compared to just under 13 percent in 2014. As with other right-wing populist parties in Europe, the Sweden Democrats have tapped into a wave of anti-immigrant sentiment that swelled during the 2015 refugee crisis.
With Löfven’s minority coalition looking vulnerable, the Moderate Party’s new leader, Ulf Kristersson, has been shifting policy closer to the Sweden Democrats’ hard line on immigration to win more support, but he has also said he will not work with the SD.
Polish local elections — late 2018
What’s at stake: About a year before local elections are set to take place, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party pushed through controversial electoral reformsin the lower house of parliament that the opposition says were drafted to help boost PiS’s electoral chances. The PiS says the reforms will make the system more transparent. The measures include changing the way State Election Commission members are selected, limiting mayoral terms to two and abolishing postal voting in local elections.
The electoral changes are among a number of PiS proposals to come under fire recently, including judicial reforms that led the European Commission to trigger the so-called Article 7 process, which could ultimately lead to the suspension of Poland’s EU voting rights.
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