As folk singer Bob Dylan once sang, “things, they are a’changing.” The Arab Spring which ushered in a wave of revolutionary uprisings in late 2010 across North Africa and Middle East — but, seemed to bypass the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The death of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz in January 2015 however, created a vacuum at the top of the House of Saud; and, the ingredients for the events that occurred this past weekend. I am referring of course, to the high-profile arrests of 11 princes, including the well-known Saudi billionaire, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal; as well as the former head of the Saudi National Guard — a very powerful position within the kingdom. The official charge was corruption. These arrests “sent shock-waves throughout the kingdom,” and across the globe, David Kirkpatrick wrote in the November 6, 2017 edition of the New York Times. He added, “the sweeping campaign of arrests, appears to be the latest move to consolidate the power of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the favorite son, and top adviser to King Salman. At 32, the crown prince is already the dominant voice in the Saudi military, foreign, economic, and social policies, stirring murmurs of discontent in the royal family [some 15K princes] that he has amassed too much power; and, at such a young age.”
As Mr. Kirkpatrick noted, “King Salman had decreed the creation of a powerful new, anti-corruption committee, headed by the crown prince, only hours before [public] announcement of the arrests.” The major Gulf news daily, Al Arabiya, reported that “the anti-corruption committee has the right to investigate, arrest, ban from travel, or freeze the assets of anyone it deems corrupt.”
These Arrests Are High Risk, High Reward, & High Consequence Maneuver
King Salman, 81 years old, is said to be in ill health; and, may be unable to fully, mentally function to the extent that is needed to oversee the countries day-to-day foreign and domestic policies — thus, the rise of the crown prince. Domestically, Crown Prince Salman wants to spearhead a major initiative to move Saudi Arabia beyond its economic dependence on oil; and, lay the foundation that provides an uplifting and aspirational outlook for his nation’s youth — that make up over 50 percent of the population. Prince Salman is also said to be determined to continue to push for reform — such as allowing women to drive — and, move the country more into the 21st century. Something that some within Islamic circles in Saudi Arabia no doubt oppose. Last month, Crown Prince Salman publicly stated that he wanted to “eradicate” extremism,” in the kingdom — what many considered a bold, and stunning pronouncement. “We are only returning to what we used to be, to moderate Islam, open to the world, and all religions,” he said at a global investors conference held in the capital city of Riyadh late last month, dubbed, ‘Davos in the Desert.’ “We want to lead normal lives, lives where our religion, and tradition translate into tolerance, so that we can coexist in the world; and become part of the development of the world.”
With respect to foreign policy, it is all about countering Iran geo-strategically, and preventing the Mullahs in Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon/s capability.
As Karen Elliott House writes in this morning’s [Nov. 7, 2017] Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “The Strategy Behind The Saudi Strife,” “change is accelerating in Saudi Arabia. Ms. House, a former publisher of the WSJ; and, author of the 2012 book, “On Saudi Arabia: It’s People, Past, Religion, Fault Lines — And Future,” writes that the young prince “is gambling that the moves [arrests] will be seen at home and abroad — as a cleansing of the kingdom of tarnished old ways — not as the whim of an authoritarian ruler.”
Ms. House writes that “the crackdown is intended to frighten anyone with power — not only the prince’s royal and religious opponents. In a monarchy infamous for widespread malfeasance, an anti-corruption campaign means almost every prince [some 15K] and current, or former minister, is vulnerable to being targeted, detained, blocked from travel, and stripped of his assets. Not even aides or associates are safe,” she adds. “But it is unlikely the opposition will grow much,” she contends, “as the crown prince has spent the last year taking control of [the country’s] internal security and defense. The message is clear: get behind reform, or be silenced.”
“Prince Mohammed, a millennial [who is] popular with young Saudis, is not so much an idealistic social reformer — as a pragmatist,” Ms. House observes. “He desperately wants to diversify the economy. Standing in his way are decades of dependence on oil; and, an exploding population of young people, lacking an education and the will to work.”
Moving Saudi Arabia away from dependence on oil, to a more diversified, post-oil economy is something the country desperately needs; and the prince knows it. The time to plant a tree — was 20 years ago — if you want to enjoy its benefits. As has been said many times, the Stone Age did not die for a lack of stones. But, “success has a thousand fathers, while failure is an orphan.” Saudi Arabia needs to take the path that the crown prince wants to put the country on; but, this is isn’t going to be easy, swift, nor without difficulty and setbacks. One has to hope that the crown prince can bring the doubtful along with him; and, withstand the inevitable push-back he will get — especially from the religious conservatives. If the crown prince were to fail and turn into an ‘orphan,’ the country could drift toward the religious conservatives — which would not be good, for the country, the region, the West, and especially the country’s youth. They need something inspirational and aspirational with respect to jobs and an economic outlook, as well as more liberty and freedom at home.
There is a huge chasm between the ‘haves,’ and the ‘have-not’s’ in the kingdom; and with more than 50 percent of the countries’ youth under the age of 30, they must have hope that the country’s leaders recognize that for them — the youth — to have a future at home, there has to be something beyond being the world’s largest gas-station. Otherwise, the darker angels of the country’s nature, will use disappointment, disaffection, and a lack of enthusiasm about the future — to turn at some of them……to the dark-side.
As the late, great, Italian philosopher Niccolo Machiavelli once wrote, “it is better to be feared than loved, if you cannot be both.” The crown prince is consolidating, and establishing himself as the next alpha male among Saudi’s princes. Perhaps he has read Machiavelli’s “The Prince,” and adhering to another of Machiavelli’s dictum’s: “The one who adapts his policies to the times prospers; and likewise, the one who’s policies clashes with the demands of his time…….does not.”
Finally, I could not resist Shakespeare’s time honored wisdom: From Henry IV, Part II, Act III, Scene I: “Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.” Hopefully, that applies to North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un; or as I call him, ‘Dr. Evil.’ V/R, RCP.
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