If we are looking for the unabashed bottom line of the latest version of the U.S. strategy on Afghanistan, or shall we say an outline of the next episode of the New World Order drama, in its most succinct form, the following words of Trump’s elaborate discourse delivered on August 21, 2017 would suffice: “Our troops will fight to win.”
Not to mention the cost of spreading this war across the border into Pakistan as overtly as both Trump and Nicholson have alluded to could bear serious consequences for US
“We will fight to win. From now on, victory will have a clear definition: attacking our enemies, obliterating ISIS, crushing al Qaeda, preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan, and stopping mass terror attacks against America before they emerge… Conditions on the ground, not arbitrary timetables, will guide our strategy from now on.”
For anyone, who has honestly witnessed the unfolding of events in the region (Pakistan & Afghanistan) especially since September 2001, and has also followed the pattern of U.S. intervention across the Middle East over the same time period, it is not difficult to note these words are little else than over-used rhetoric of almost 16 years. It was just that this time Trump took the turn to deliver the message of the U.S. Deep State to the intended recipients, hence the choice of words reflected Trump’s infamous lack of diplomatic etiquette and his overall lack of insight especially so in reference to Pakistan and Afghanistan.
One cannot but wonder if Trump was at all aware that this is exactly what the U.S. strategy has been since 9/11 in particular, and not just in Afghanistan, rather anywhere and everywhere, wherever the U.S. Deep State has deemed it advantageous to spread its hegemonic tentacles for the greater benefit of the U.S. Military-Industrial complex.
Trump would have not announced to walk the same path U.S. has been walking since 9/11 with great vigour, rather Trump would have held his ground and not taken a U-turn on this pre-election stance on the matter
One of the very few aspects of the recently declared strategy that comprises of ‘something new’ is perhaps the more dogmatic and overt threat given to Pakistan which implies the U.S. Deep State, in fact, wishes to expand their war into Pakistan far more explicitly than simply using infiltrates of the likes of Raymond Davis to oversee covert targeted operations within Pakistan. After 16 years of pouring billions of dollars into what has been portrayed as an ongoing attempt to root out the ‘self-architected’ threat of terrorism in the world, expansion of this war into Pakistan is most probably meant to serve as an obvious face-saving measure for the U.S.
That is one big reason why Pakistan has been continuously portrayed as the culprit behind the unspoken failure of U.S. to win the war in Afghanistan. In essence, however, and as is always the case, this false flag provides the U.S. Military Industrial Complex with an apparently legitimate pretext to realize their dream of carrying out Balkanization of Pakistan leading to subsequent control of its vast untapped reserves of oil and natural gas as well as deep water ports.
The province of Baluchistan, wherein 19 trillion out of an estimated total of 25 trillion cubic feet of proven gas reserves are located, has therefore been the main target of a nationalist movement abetted heavily by the Indian and British Intelligence as well as the CIA, for decades. Also, politically speaking, the said province has been deliberately mismanaged by puppet governments of Pakistan in order to help create circumstances that would ultimately lead to achieving the goal of separation of Baluchistan from the Federation.
Deep State forces in making the swamp more filthy. Also, General John. W. Nicholson needs to step out of the highly arrogant mind-set that seems to be common among the U.S.
CIA and Mossad support for Baluch nationalists/separatists in Iran and Afghanistan have also been reported in recent times and understandably so. The combined feeling and exploitation of the Baluch nationalist sentiment across borders in this region is a clear sign that the U.S. Deep State has in fact been planning and working towards the creation of ‘Greater Baluchistan’ for long so as to be able to develop and sustain its hegemony over regional resources as well as acquire a strategic upper hand over China and Russia by accessing and controlling deep water ports in the Indian Ocean and Arabian sea via Baluchistan.
Parallel to the effort to destabilize Baluchistan, an effort to play on the nationalist Pakhtun sentiment in the North Western Frontier Province, which borders Afghanistan, was observed as an on-going process well into the 1970s. However, after the end of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and particularly since 9/11, the false flag employed to achieve the goal of destabilization in this region has been Pakistan’s alleged support for Taliban.
The Americans, British and the Indians have blatantly accused Pakistan of harbouring ‘terrorist safe havens’ and have blamed Pakistan for not doing enough whereas, in fact, it is CIA, that has continued to employ and support mercenaries to destabilize the region in particular Pakistan via countless terrorist activities since 2001; terrorist activities of these very mercenaries inside Afghanistan have also been employed to create a false pretext for continued presence of the allied forces in Afghanistan.
To the contrary they have in essence announced to sabotage any such effort towards peace in the region, hence the developing nexus of the U.S. Deep State and the Hindu extremist Modi government in India
Now that we have more transparently seen in case of Syria, then we could in Afghanistan, as to how the U.S. Intelligence agencies tend to create a quagmire of militant and non-militant proxy groups in order to misguide and mislead the general public opinion, it is easier to fathom that a similar strategy had been put in use in Afghanistan, since before not after 9/11, hence the various factions of Taliban and Al-Qaeda and the more recently planted ISIS alias Daesh that have become a ground reality in the region.
However, this does not imply real and legitimate resistance to the presence of allied forces in Afghanistan does not exist. Historically speaking, the Pakhtun people have always resisted subjugation to any outside rule. The Pakhtun tribes in Afghanistan as well as in the FATA region of Pakistan that borders with Afghanistan could not be brought even under the dominion of the great British Empire. Hence the Haqqani and other like-minded Pakhtun have targeted the allied forces in Afghanistan simply because they believe their homeland has been unjustly invaded and occupied.
These elements are not aligned with the objectives of the CIA mercenaries and must not be mistaken to carry the same dark agenda regardless of whether or not one agrees with the legitimacy of their resistance. Perhaps it is these very elements that would be willing to play a vital role in trying to settle through negotiation the terrible upheaval that has been created in the region.
Let us backtrack in history a little for the sake of highlighting certain contextual details:
The U.S. presence in Afghanistan besides other ulterior motives was therefore also intended to secure both the cultivation and the trade of opium that in part feeds the covert and overt wars U.S.
CIA as always did not know what to do with the highly trained and well-armed ‘Freedom Fighters’ of Afghanistan after they had been used to drive out the Soviets in 1988-89. These ‘Freedom Fighters’ had been trained and facilitated in their war against the Soviets by the American and Pakistani Intelligence agencies, not to mention Saudi Arabia that poured in the much-needed financing. Various factions of these ‘Freedom Fighters’, the many ethnic tribes and the many War Lords of Afghanistan, fell victim to internal division in the vacuum that had naturally formed after the Soviet invasion ended.
This was further fueled by outside influence from many an international stake holders namely Iran and Saudi Arabia who sided with the Shiite and the Sunni religious entities in Afghanistan respectively. The U.S. might not have overtly participated in the aftermath of the end of Soviet occupation in Afghanistan but they did allow their long term ally i.e. Saudi Arabia do the dirty job of creating an operational environment very similar to what we have more recently seen in Syria: Fertile soil that would allow the U.S. to create and employ many false flags in the name of War on Terror for a very long time to come.
Pakistan had since the early 1970s i.e. before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, deemed it in the national interest to undermine the nationalist Pakhtun sentiment in Afghanistan in order to minimize the threat of ‘Greater Pakhtunistan’ which could have cost Pakistan its North Western Frontier Province.
This was further fueled by outside influence from many an international stake holders namely Iran and Saudi Arabia who sided with the Shiite and the Sunni religious entities in Afghanistan respectively
Instead, it was thought focusing on the religious sentiment as opposed to the nationalist sentiment will eliminate the threat of Greater Pakhtunistan, help establish an Islamabad-friendly government in Kabul, and above all undermine India’s negative influence in the region, which undoubtedly had been a very unfavourable ground reality since long before the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. Hence, unfortunately, Pakistan seemed to have made a grave mistake by taking sides with the Saudis in extending support to the Taliban movement in Afghanistan prior to the 9/11 saga.
Nonetheless, accusing Pakistan of continued support to Taliban even after 16 years, although the ground reality has changed drastically over time, is so naïve that it, in fact, betrays the truth hidden behind it. Having suffered a fiscal loss of $118 billion up until 2016, being writhed by terror attacks all over the country since 2001, and having sacrificed a great number of both civilian and military lives, Pakistan is still being recklessly held responsible for providing safe havens to terrorists that apparently threaten the U.S. and the Western world, simply because the U.S. Deep State is not yet done with its plans for the New World Order; they have not yet completed the Balkanization of Pakistan that was planned for 2015 by Pentagon.
These elements are not aligned with the objectives of the CIA mercenaries and must not be mistaken to carry the same dark agenda regardless of whether or not one agrees with the legitimacy of their resistance
Also, it is worth remembering that one of the most crucial factors behind the continued effort at destabilization of Pakistan’s North Western Province as well as the direct U.S. invasion of Afghanistan post 9/11 has been the Opium Trade. Production of opium had dwindled to almost nothing causing the world heroin market to collapse by the end of the last century because Taliban outlawed cultivation of opium whereas in 1995 Afghanistan had ranked as the #1 producer of opium and heroin.
The U.S. presence in Afghanistan besides other ulterior motives was therefore also intended to secure both the cultivation and the trade of opium that in part feeds the covert and overt wars U.S. Deep State is fighting around the globe. Given this awfully complex picture, U.S. could have avoided further expansion of the war on terror and indicated a genuine desire to reach a solution with the directly involved front-line elements in the region by supporting the combined effort of Russia, China, and Pakistan in this regard.
To the contrary they have in essence announced to sabotage any such effort towards peace in the region, hence the developing nexus of the U.S. Deep State and the Hindu extremist Modi government in India. It must also be pointed out that U.S. has in fact effectively sabotaged any effort directed at reaching a resolution through talks with the warring elements in Afghanistan many times in the past years by conducting covert operations against the very elements it has apparently sought to bring to the table to negotiate.
The Pakhtun tribes in Afghanistan as well as in the FATA region of Pakistan that borders with Afghanistan could not be brought even under the dominion of the great British Empire
The reaction that has been observed coming from China and Russia, not to mention the Pakistani Military Chief, to Trump’s less than the thoughtful bashing of Pakistan, is highly reflective of the major change that has been taking place in this part of the world. Had U.S. sincerely sought out peace, Trump would not have announced to walk the same path U.S. has been walking since 9/11 with great vigor, rather Trump would have held his ground and not taken a U-turn on this pre-election stance on the matter.
Contrary to his intention to ‘drain the swamp’, Trump has in fact joined hands with the U.S. Deep State forces in making the swamp more filthy. Also, General John. W. Nicholson needs to step out of the highly arrogant mindset that seems to be common among the U.S. Deep State war mongers and remember Afghanistan has been the graveyard of many an empire, historically speaking, and to believe this land would treat the Americans any differently is nothing but a fallacy. Not to mention the cost of spreading this war across the border into Pakistan as overtly as both Trump and Nicholson have alluded to could bear serious consequences for U.S.
Kaiser Bengali is a senior economist who has served as advisor to the chief minister Balochistan as well as consultant/national coordinator for Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP), Government of Pakistan. Besides, he has headed research institutions including Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Karachi, and Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad. He has done his Masters in Economics from Boston University, USA, and has a PhD from Karachi University. He has vast experience in the fields of teaching, research, publications and finance.
Here he talks to The News on Sunday (TNS) about the country’s economic policies, the priorities of those managing the economy, the economic challenges faced at local and international levels, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and its relationship with Gwadar, development of the social sector, our falling exports and foreign reserves and other related topics. Excerpts of the interview follow:
The News on Sunday (TNS): The sitting government regularly boasts of robust growth figures. Are these real?
Kaiser Bengali (KB): I would simply say Ishaq Dar, who had been heading the team, follows a revenue-based approach to show growth and his focus is on increasing taxes. The result of this is that those already in the tax net get further burdened. The World Bank is also pressuring the government to increase revenue collection. We can call it a neo-liberal economy. The policies are nothing but patchwork and are quite similar to those pursued by Shaukat Aziz.
Shaukat Aziz would probably claim Pakistan was becoming a services-oriented economy. But my point is that for a country of 200 million, it is not a good choice to have two-thirds of it unskilled. This country needs jobs for which the manufacturing sector will have to be strengthened. Even Donald Trump is talking about reviving manufacturing and creating jobs this way.
The growth figures shared with us do not have any credibility as there is no reliable data to back them. In fact, the calculations are based mainly on the revenue collected and not on other important indicators that should have been considered.
As I said earlier, the World Bank is a party to all this so it does not question the credibility of these figures. Here I would quote the example of the livestock survey presented by the government which is completely flawed and based on estimates. Much after the results were revealed, we found that no proper ground work was conducted to reach the conclusions they were claiming.
The government just paints a flowery picture: so while sharing the attractive growth figures, they do not share that the manufacturing and agricultural sectors are nosediving. The growth of manufacturing should be around eight per cent but in Pakistan it is just four-and-a-half per cent per annum. Similarly, the growth of agriculture sector has hovered around one per cent per annum on average and there have been times when it has experienced negative growth as well. The government must explain why this is happening; especially why a purely agriculturally country cannot even feed its agro-based industry properly. It is common knowledge that the cotton crop has suffered in the past couple of years. The growth of the manufacturing sector is vital as it helps reduce unemployment but unfortunately it is not a priority here.
“I think our economy can best be described as a casino economy. This means that we are investing in real estate, stocks etc. in anticipation of high returns within a small span of time; there are no long-term goals in sight. Manufacturing is constantly on the decline so the domestic demand is fulfilled by importing products from abroad.”
TNS: In the current scenario, what do you think are the driving forces of our economy?
KB: I think our economy can best be described as a casino economy. This means that we are investing in real estate, stocks etc. in anticipation of high returns within a small span of time; there are no long-term goals in sight. Manufacturing is constantly on the decline so the domestic demand is fulfilled by importing products from abroad. Even in this process, easy and quick money is made by importers by under-invoicing and evading duties in collusion with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) officials.
There is hardly any realisation about how dangerous this practice can be for the country’s economy and its manufacturing sector. It’s pitiful that while importers are being facilitated, manufacturers are getting crushed. The cost of doing business is too high and it’s a fact that they have to pay different taxes whose value adds up to around 51 per cent.
Even worse is the government’s habit of seeking expensive loans and raising funds through floating financial products such as Euro Bonds and Sukuk Bonds in the international market. The promised rate of return is too high when compared to similar products launched by other countries. After launching such products, the government claims success, stating these have been oversubscribed in the international market. It’s a matter of common sense to understand that buyers rush for products that offer an exorbitant rate of return. The real test of the government will be when these mature and it has to pay dividends to the buyers.
TNS: The PML-N government promised an end to the power crisis. How successful have they been?
KB: Yes, it’s true that they capitalised on this promise and got political mileage out of it. They are pursuing several projects but my point is that the basic issues persist and are yet to be resolved. For example, the circular debt is once again out of control and close to Rs800 billion.
When the incumbent government came into power, it printed currency notes to pay off the circular debt. This solved nothing. You see the problem is still there and it will remain there till the structural issues of the power sector are resolved. It is not possible to produce expensive electricity and sell it for less than its cost, and at the same time offer preferential tariffs to certain sectors. Power theft and line losses further add to the burden.
The Chinese companies play smart and get excellent returns on their investments. It has proven difficult to extract much from them. China has a 10-year control of the SaindakCopper and Gold Project and gets gold as a by-product of the mining.
TNS: A lot of hopes are pinned on CPEC. Do you think it can really be the game-changer?
KB: I do not think Pakistan will gain a lot from the CPEC initiative which is still shrouded in mystery. There are no details available and the government is not ready to answer any questions. Instead of a game-changer; CPEC may signify a game over. I see the Corridor creating threats for local businesses and fear that it won’t be a win-win situation for both countries.
For example, since Chinese companies are tax-exempt they will bring everything from China and hence they will have no reliance on Pakistani businesses to fulfil their demands. This has shattered the dreams of many local companies that planned to expand their production facilities in anticipation of receiving orders from these Chinese companies. The association of cable operators in Pakistan is one such entity that was expecting a big boost in its sale volumes, but now they are struggling to sustain their existing sale figures.
The Chinese companies play smart and get excellent returns on their investments. It has proven difficult to extract much from them. China has a 10-year control of the Saindak Copper and Gold Project and gets gold as a by-product of the mining. Also, China does not share how much ore it is taking from Pakistan or how much copper it is extracting or what is the quality of gold obtained as a by-product. And nobody can ask them these questions.
They will definitely watch their interest this time also, so it becomes the duty of the government to secure the country’s interests. I raised this issue and presented 12 questions on CPEC to the government but it has not provided any answer except one “yes” to the question about whether any feasibility has been conducted on CPEC. However, they have no documents or figures to support this claim. Furthermore, there is no document on how the toll money, if at all, will be shared between the provinces through which the CPEC routes passes.
And one more thing; people believe all the money is coming from China. This is not so. Pakistan is spending a lot from of its own resources without calculating what it stands to gain or lose. All the CPEC roads are being built by Pakistan. Besides, the cost of providing security to the CPEC-related Chinese workforce and infrastructure falls on us. There are reports that NEPRA has allowed transferring this security cost to the citizens of Pakistan. This will be done by adding it to our electricity bills just like the PTV license fee that they have to pay.
Those celebrating it must know that the above USD 50 billion loans and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) will ultimately impact the country when there will be an outflow of loan payments and profit remittances to Chinese companies. This will put immense pressure on foreign reserves which are already dwindling. Unfortunately, Pakistan has done no planning on how funds and revenues will be generated for these payments.
Another fear is that the trade imbalance with China will further widen. The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and China has already resulted in trade imbalances with Pakistani exports being far less than its imports from China. This is about formal trade; the flooding of Pakistani markets with Chinese products is in addition to it. You will be surprised to know that many Pakistani manufacturers have stopped production at their units. Instead, they import products from China and supply them to the market in Pakistani packaging. Buyers think the product is manufactured in Pakistan which is not the case.
The environmental cost of CPEC will also be big. One reason is that no EIAs have been done to offset this. Several coal-powered projects based on imported raw material have been launched. This dependence on imported fuel will increase pressure on rupee. The effective rate of US dollar is already Rs120 but it has been kept between Rs104 and Rs106 artificially. Just imagine what will be the situation when Pakistan will have to honour the payback commitments.
TNS: How much does Pakistan stand to gain from the development of Gwadar?
KB: I have said it earlier and will say it again that Gwadar cannot become Dubai. It is a seaport built for the purpose of re-exporting Chinese products brought into Pakistan via a land route. I think it is not possible to establish industrial zones and a mega city in Gwadar because there is no water available to support this development.
The environmental cost of CPEC will also be big. One reason is that no EIAs have been done to offset this. Several coal-powered projects based on imported raw material have been launched. This dependence on imported fuel will increase pressure on rupee.
If we recall, Gwadar came into the spotlight after the Kargil war because a need was felt to have a port for naval purposes. India tried to blockade the port at Karachi and sent ships but this plan failed. As the sea is rough in the summer, the crew got sea-sick and returned. The Karachi-Gwadar Road (Coastal Highway) was also constructed during that time, mainly for defence reasons. Till then it had been completely neglected and its economic potential had not come under discussion. I am not against building infrastructure for security reasons; my point is that we must acknowledge it was for defence reasons and not to exploit its economic potential.
Can one believe it is for the first time that Gwadar and Quetta have been connected via a direct road?
The issue is that one tanker of drinking water brought from as far as Mirani Dam (150 kilometres away from Gwadar) costs around Rs25,000. You will be amazed to hear that water theft from houses in Gwadar is quite common. What happens is that thieves enter houses and walk away with household containers carrying drinking water. They won’t steal motorcycles or other belongings, it’s water that they want.
The government does talk about the option of setting up a desalination plant but I do not think it is workable because of its huge fixed and operational costs. It is estimated that it will cost Rs750 million a year to run such a plant. China is apparently not ready to give funds, so Pakistan will have to cover the cost. I do not think Pakistan will be able to take this responsibility because its share of revenues from Gwadar Port is only 9 per cent while China has 91 per cent of the share.
TNS: The government talks of increasing the tax net but this has not happened. Why?
KB: I think this is because the moral legitimacy to demand taxes has been lost and the reason for this is that people do not recieve anything in return. In developed countries with a high tax-to-GDP ratio, people are motivated to pay taxes because they get services and privileges in return. They believe they are paying taxes that are ultimately being spent on their welfare and well-being, but in Pakistan there is a strong mistrust among citizens and the state. In Canada, the tax rates are high but people pay happily because facilities like education and health are free and of high quality.
In Pakistan this is not the case. Take the example of Sindh Industrial and Trading Estate (SITE) and the Korangi industrial area in Karachi. The owners of industrial units set up here pay billions of rupees in tax but the government cannot even provide proper roads to them. They have to pay bribes to have their petty issues resolved and are harassed by the state machinery.
The government is only interested in having a good budget to show and for this it plays with figures and deviates and digresses from original plans. It is quite common to find block budgetary allocations made for certain sectors without going into specific details. Besides, as I mentioned earlier, it takes further loans to pay off earlier loans and build up foreign reserves —- although this helps paint a pretty picture, it has severe repercussions in the long run. Similarly, the government of Pakistan received USD1.5 billion to maintain its reserves. This is just like borrowing money from someone to show a healthy bank statement at the time of applying for a visa and later on returning it to the lender.
Without a doubt, well-planned, comprehensive and sustainable policies with long-term objectives are the need of the time. We will have to do away with patch-work and short-lived quick fixes
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