India has been a beneficiary of Myanmar's democratisation. However, the positive trend in their bilateral relationship can be affected by the emerging internal political developments in Myanmar.
Myanmar's current internal political dynamics and the evolving regional undercurrents have serious implications for India-Myanmar relations. Seeing from this perspective, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the country this week is an attempt to ensure that the outcome of the emerging domestic and regional forces at work do not negatively affect India's ties with Myanmar.
Since the 1990s, up until a few years ago, political tussle between the pro-democracy supporters and the authoritarian military (or the Tatmadaw) regime greatly shaped Myanmar's foreign policy choices. Myanmar's military regime grew closer towards its northern neighbour, China as it sought support from Beijing to fend off international pressure.
Even as the country transitioned into democracy in 2010 and effort to consolidate the process is ongoing, a geopolitical consequence that still weigh heavily on the country is China's overwhelming presence as a key economic and defence partner.
As the country's reforms unfold, there are new challenges with the potential of throwing the country back to the situation from where it has been trying to move away. The likelihood of the country creating a geopolitical setting where it once again look towards China in the face of growing external pressure seems to be rapidly evolving.
In recent months, Myanmar's political leadership has come under intense scrutiny over alleged human rights abuses by its military troops against the Rohingya Muslims, a minority community numbering about 1.1 million who are concentrated in northwestern Rakhine state.
Fresh conflicts began after a dozen of Myanmar security forces were killed by Rohingya militant groups in late August. Tens of thousands have fled the country to neighbouring Bangladesh as Myanmar's military unleashed massive counterinsurgency operations.
State Councellor Daw Suu Kyi and her government have been criticised for not doing enough to stop the alleged military atrocities against the Rohingyas. Myanmar has come under increasing diplomatic pressure from the UN, Western capitals and Muslim majority countries including Indonesia and Turkey.
As the Rohingya crisis attract global attention, voices of alleged human rights abuses by Myanmar troops in other parts of the country, particularly in Kachin and Shan states where conflicts continue between ethnic armed groups and Myanmar army continue, have also grown louder.
Myanmar's political leadership is once again turning to its powerful neighbours — China and India. Those who have been warily watching at the warming up of ties between the first democratically elected government in twenty five years under democracy icon Suu Kyi and Beijing, Prime Minister Modi's Myanmar visit comes at a good time.
Myanmar's political leadership is once again turning to its powerful neighbours — China and India.
In March this year, China — along with India — 'dissociated' from the UN resolution to dispatch an 'independent international fact-finding mission' to investigate the alleged human rights abuses by security forces against Rohingya Muslims in Rakhine State.
The following month saw Myanmar and China reaching a deal on an oil pipeline from the Bay of Bengal to Kunming in Chinese Yunnan Province. The Suu Kyi government agreed to the deal after a delay of two years and despite popular anti-Chinese sentiments in the country.
Along with the pipeline deal, Myanmar also signed with China 'exchange of letters of implementation' of the nearly $10 billion deep-sea port and industrial park project in Kyaukphyu SEZ of Myanmar's Rakhine state, a project awarded to a consortium led by China's state-owned conglomerate CITIC earlier in 2015.
These projects are important components of Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. In fact, Myanmar signed an MoU with China on 'Cooperation within the Framework of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative' when State Counsellor Daw Suu Kyi attended the China's Belt and Road Forum in May this year.
According to reports, some 3000 Chinese businesspersons are visiting Myanmar next month to explore investment opportunities at the invitation of the Myanmar government. Chief Ministers of all Myanmar states/regions are to attend the meeting to sign investment agreements in sectors picked by Chinese investors.
Against this backdrop, two developments captures the current state of India-Myanmar relationship. First, as India and China were locked-in the months-long military standoff in Doklam plateau, Myanmar's Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was in India on an eight-day visit. Second, at India's Independence Day reception in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar's State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi showed up.
India has been a beneficiary of Myanmar's democratisation. However, the positive trend in their bilateral relationship can be affected by the emerging internal political developments in Myanmar. There is a need to bear in mind if the intricate relationship between the domestic and the foreign if history has any indication.
Interestingly, but for the new equations and realignments both the external and the internal players are the same. Internally, Daw Suu Kyi and the Tatmadaw are seemingly on one side this time around and share somewhat similar view in as far as the need to seek China's support is concerned. The Western powers are finding it hard to keep Daw Suu Kyi on their side as she plays 'realpolitik'.
The Western powers are finding it hard to keep Daw Suu Kyi on their side as she plays 'realpolitik'.
Whatever name one may use to describe Myanmar's current political system — 'dual state' or 'hybrid system' — the fact remains that it is a power sharing arrangement between the Tatmadaw and the elected political parties as enshrined in the 2008 constitution.
On the face of it, the democratically elected government under Daw Suu Kyi and the Tatmadaw seem to be on the same page in as after as the Rohingya issue as well as ethnic armed groups are concerned.
However, if conflict and violence further escalate it may be difficult for the two political players to work together. Not necessarily because of change of hearts towards the minority communities, but as they respond to pressures from Myanmar's citizens themselves and the international community their approaches may differ. Any rift between them now will have far-reaching consequences on the country's ongoing transition process.
As the first world leader visiting the country after the latest bout of violence in Rakhine state, Prime Minister Modi is aware of Myanmar's internal politics and the likely geostrategic fallout.
For Myanmar's long-term interests and India-Myanmar relations, Prime Minister Modi should tell his Myanmar counterparts that failing to find ways to resolve internal conflicts would harm Myanmar's strategic interests and may push it to the situation from where it is trying to come out.
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