Robert Service
Does the west have reason to worry that the Russian authorities have penetrated its communications networks and used the information for malign purposes? Declarations by US intelligence agencies in 2016 suggested that the case is clearcut. Russia stands charged with systematic malpractice, including the manipulation of American public opinion in favour of Donald Trump’s campaign for the presidency.
The US Senate reacted with a bill on economic sanctions, supported overwhelmingly, which the president felt obliged to sign in the interests of “national unity”. Events are beginning to overwhelm even him on the Russian question.
Until now Trump has pitched his tent in the camp of the advocates for a positive reset in Russia-US relations. No American, not even Henry Kissinger, has hammered the tent pegs so deep. When Trump met up with Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit there was a visible warmth of mutual feeling. Trump appeared satisfied after Putin denied that his people had probed the American political establishment with untoward intent. Apparently Putin’s word should be accepted without cavil.
A scene that John le Carré might have concocted took place at an FSB board meeting in January this year
Others in America have drawn the opposite conclusion, but surprisingly few have taken proper notice of what has been going on at the Defense department this summer. At the centre of the affair is the Kaspersky Lab. This is a private company whose business lies in providing anti-virus protection to the world’s highest bidders. With large offices in New York and London, it has acquired a global reputation for fending off hacking activity. According to its brochures, Kaspersky can swat down electronic intruders like drugged mosquitoes. Hence why the Pentagon paid out for the company’s help.
The senators in their mass thought otherwise. Alongside its bases in western capitals, the Kaspersky Lab retained a large office in Moscow. Why, it has been asked, does the Defense department see fit to hand over the keys to its online defences to a foreign company with alleged links to an adversary power? The Kaspersky Lab denies working with Russian intelligence agencies and sits tight.
This is not the end of the story and is far from being the start, for the scandal erupted first not in Washington but in Moscow. A scene that John le Carré might have concocted took place at an FSB board meeting in January this year. Sketchy details were provided at the time by the opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta. In the middle of the proceedings, FSB operatives entered the room and laid hands on their superior officer Sergei Mikhailov, who masterminded the agency’s IT operations. A hood was put over his head before he was hauled off to the grim Lefortovo prison. Simultaneously an FSB unit grabbed hold of Kaspersky Lab’s main man in the Russian capital – though it said the arrest was not linked to his work for the company. Verifiable information about the fate of the arrested men is unavailable.
What is clear from all this is that the establishments in both Russia and America are jittery about each other’s attempts to penetrate and manipulate their public life. Putin told Oliver Stone of his resentment about the CIA’s contacts with opposition politicians in Russia. He also continues to accuse the United States of having actively fostered the 2014 uprising against Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, who was Putin’s corrupt ally in Kiev. In Putin’s opinion, America has done a lot worse than hack into the electronic mailboxes of parties during an electoral campaign.
This is not a story that is going to fade quickly – and both sides are harrumphing self-righteously. Whereas Russia has long settled its policy on America, Trump and his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, have yet to spell theirs out. A deal of sorts was done on the G20 sidelines for a quietening of the civil war at least in southern Syria. Tillerson spoke bluntly about Ukraine’s rights to independence and territorial integrity. Meanwhile the people of eastern Europe from Estonia through to Poland watch anxiously. For them, Ukraine is the lead domino. If it should fall, their capacity to stand upright is jeopardised.
A lot is at stake not only in Washington but also in Moscow. Sensitivities are raw, and Putin would surely have made this plain at the G20. It is a complex situation, more complex than in the cold war when the White House and the Kremlin hardly interfered in the high politics of the other side. Since the end of communism in Russia, the Kremlin no longer bestrides a true superpower. Putin has presumably told Trump about his terms for mutual accommodation. Perhaps Trump has indicated what his own are. When the clouds lift, we will need excellent negotiators to navigate the future talks. Meanwhile countries to the west of Russia have reason to worry that any grand bargain might sell them down the river.
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