A few things need to be spelt to have a clearer understanding of the situation created by Chinaon the Dokalam plateau in view of the propaganda barrage from Beijing to portray itself as a victim of India’s high-handedness.
First, China’s intrusion into the disputed Dokalam plateau follows the pattern of its intrusions into other disputed areas on our border, whether the Depsang intrusion in 2013 and in Chumar in 2014.
China’s strategy on the border issue is a controlled one, both of not settling it and also negotiating agreements and measures to avoid an actual military clash. This way China keeps India under pressure, exposes the limitations of its political will and military capacity to confront it, keeps large parts of India’s military forces tied up in the north and east with a view to releasing pressure on Pakistan, and through all this pursues its hegemonic ambitions in Asia as whole with diminished Indian resistance.
Second, China’s well organised psychological warfare against others relies on threatening force and using its state-controlled media to amplify the threat. Its threats are today backed by its increased military power and its intimidatory tactics therefore carry more weight. In India’s case the 1962 episode and our enduring trauma adds to the problem.
Regrettably, our own media disseminates Chinese threats uncritically and China apologists in the country portray scenarios of China repeating the humiliation of 1962. We have shown timidity in dealing with China’s numerous provocations all these years and this encourages China’s bluster.
Third, China has already intruded in our neighbourhood in a major way. It cannot but feel piqued at not being able to intervene in the special Bhutan-India relationship and find ways of undermining it. It has made territorial claims on this small country in order to push it to have a separate dialogue track with China.
It has offered to make concessions to Bhutan in the north in exchange for the territory it claims in the Chumbi valley area, but this ploy has not worked because of India’s security concerns and Bhutan’s wise policy of not delinking the settlement of its border differences with China with those of India in the trijunction area. China would have a clear motive to disturb the India-Bhutan relationship by violating its own understandings with Bhutan on the Dokalam plateau area.
Bhutan would obviously not want to get caught in the crossfire between India and China more than necessary, and India would not want it either. Promoting the view that Bhutan is being reticent in giving support to India bolster’s China’s gameplan.
Fourth, the line being offered by some in India that China’s road-building attempt may have been done routinely as part of improving the infrastructure on its own side, and may not have been a deliberate provocation, and India’s intervention caught China by surprise, which then would explain its violent reaction is truly bewildering.
If so, why have the Chinese not sought to quietly resolve the issue behind the scenes. Instead they made it public just when Modi was meeting Trump in Washington. What next? Sushma Swaraj has made a very measured statement in Parliament on the need of pull-back by both sides and restoring the status quo ante, which is the only realistic solution. If China wants to coerce India by acting elsewhere on the border, India too has options. But that would escalate matters, against India’s wishes. Whether China’s hubris will make it act irresponsibly remains to be seen. We have to be prepared for all eventualities, with confidence that 1962 will not be repeated.
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