12 July 2017

LoC firing and Doklam: Chinese strategic expert says India unwise to engage in two conflicts


On the continuing stand-off in Doklam and the LoC firing between India and Pakistan, a Chinese strategic expert said that India was now dealing with 'two conflicts' at the same time and questioned Delhi's ability to handle both.

With renewed firing along the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan, a Chinese strategic expert said on Monday it would be "unwise for India to engage in two conflicts at the same time".

Pointing to the continuing stand-off in Doklam and the LoC firing, Lin Minwang, a strategic expert at the Institute for International Studies at Fudan University, told the Party-run Global Times, a tabloid known for its hawkish views, that India was now dealing with "two conflicts" at the same time and questioned Delhi's ability to handle both.

"China has nothing to do with the situation in Kashmir, but it would be unwise for India to engage in two conflicts at the same time," Lin told the newspaper.

A separate Sunday commentary in the same paper also linked the Kashmir issue to India's "intervening" in the Doklam dispute between China and Bhutan, saying it could set a precedent for "a third country's army" to intervene in Jammu and Kashmir.

"Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan's territory, this could only be limited to its established territory, not the disputed area. Otherwise, under India's logic, if the Pakistani government requests, a third country's army can enter the area disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled Kashmir," said strategic expert Long Xingchun, using the term with which China refers to J-K.

EXCHANGE OF FIRE AT KASHMIR BORDER

On Monday, Lin was quoted as saying "there are frequent conflicts and military scuffles between the areas of Kashmir controlled by the two sides." The newspaper said that "aside from the border spat with China, India is embroiled with Pakistan over an exchange of fire at the Kashmir border."

This was the second reference to Kashmir in a day in the Global Times, a Party-run tabloid that has led the Chinese sabre-rattling over the Doklam stand-off.

On Sunday, Long Xingchun, director of the Center for Indian Studies at China West Normal University, said in a commentary that "Indian troops invaded China's Doklam area in the name of helping Bhutan, but in fact the invasion was intended to help India by making use of Bhutan."

He said that "under India's logic, if the Pakistani government requests, a third country's army can enter the area disputed by India and Pakistan, including India-controlled Kashmir," referring to Jammu and Kashmir.

Long wrote that "this incursion reflects that India fears China can quickly separate mainland India from northeast India through military means, dividing India into two pieces."

"Northeast Indian people don't identify closely with India, and there are several armed organisations striving for northeastern states' independence from India," he said. "In this case, northeast India might take the opportunity to become independent. India has interpreted China's infrastructure construction in Tibet as having a geopolitical intention against India. India itself is unable to do the same for its northeastern part, so it is trying to stop China's road construction."

Long wrote that China could "show the region and the international community or even the UN Security Council its evidence to illustrate China's position. It highlights China's sincerity and effort to maintain peace as a responsible big power. It will never resort to force till it is the last choice," he said.

Bhutan, however, has said in a statement that the area was disputed and China's action by altering the status quo violated the 1988 and 1998 agreements between the two countries. Chinese experts have downplayed Bhutan's concerns and sought to focus attention on India "trespassing" as they have stepped up a propaganda war over the past week.

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