*** If 2.6 Billion People Go To War: India vs. China

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Kyle Mizokami

A hypothetical war between India and China would be one of the largest and most destructive conflicts in Asia. A war between the two powers would rock the Indo-Pacific region, cause thousands of casualties on both sides and take a significant toll on the global economy. Geography and demographics would play a unique role, limiting the war’s scope and ultimately the conditions of victory.

India and China border one another in two distinct locations: Aksai Chin in India’s north, and Arunachal Pradesh in the country’s northeast. China has made claims on both locations, which from China’s perspective belong to the far western province of Xinjiang and China-occupied Tibet. China invaded both Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh in 1962, with both sides fighting a monthlong war that resulted in minor Chinese gains on the ground.

Both countries’ “No First Use” policies regarding nuclear weapons make the outbreak of nuclear war very unlikely. Both countries have such large populations, each over 1.3 billion, that they are essentially unconquerable. Like all modern wars, a war between India and China would be fought over land, sea, and air; geography would limit the scope of the land conflict, while it would be the air conflict, fought with both aircraft and missiles, that would do the most damage to both countries. The trump card, however, may be India’s unique position to dominate a sea conflict, with dire consequences for the Chinese economy.

*** What Is the Shia-Sunni Divide?

By Ken Chitwood

In his address in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, May 21, while calling on Muslim leaders to lead the fight against terrorism, President Donald Trump identified Iran as a despotic state giving safe harbor and financing terror in the Middle East. As Iran is a Shia state and Saudi Arabia a Sunni-led country, some media outlets criticized Trump for taking sides in the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide.

As a scholar of Islam and a public educator, I often field questions about Sunnis, Shias and the sects of Islam. What exactly is the Shia-Sunni divide? And what is its history?

History of divide

Both Sunnis and Shias – drawing their faith and practice from the Qur’an and the life of the Prophet Muhammad – agree on most of the fundamentals of Islam. The differences are related more to historical events, ideological heritage and issues of leadership.

The first and central difference emerged after the death of Prophet Muhammad in A.D. 632. The issue was who would be the caliph – the “deputy of God” – in the absence of the prophet. While the majority sided with Abu Bakr, one of the prophet’s closest companions, a minority opted for his son-in-law and cousin – Ali. This group held that Ali was appointed by the prophet to be the political and spiritual leader of the fledgling Muslim community.

*** Russian Electronic Warfare in Ukraine: Between Real and Imaginable

By Sergey Sukhankin

The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Within the past three years, Ukraine has been subjected to no less than 7,000 cyberattacks. Ukrainian cyber expert Sergey Radkevych recently claimed that “Ukraine is in a state of cyber war with Russia” and that Russian cyber activities pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s national security (Sprotyv.info, May 5).

Furthermore, military clashes in Donbas have once again demonstrated that Russian military strategists and experts believe Electronic Warfare (EW) has become the backbone of “warfare of the future.” Western sources have claimed that from December 2015, Russia started to act much more decisively aiming to “achieve kinetic effects by delivering severe blows to Ukrainian critical infrastructure” (Cna.org, March 2017). Namely, these activities included damaging/destroying command-and-control networks through jamming radio communications, hampering the work of radar systems, and muting GPS signals. The main obstacle, however, was in the lack of concrete proof and factual data pertaining to tools, gadgets and other means used by the Russians while waging EW against Ukraine. But thanks to independent investigations conducted by Ukrainian activists and cyber specialists, it is now possible to speak about Russian involvement in EW against Ukraine as an undisputed fact. And the data presented by the Ukrainians illuminates many points of ambiguity regarding Russia’s use of EW in Donbas.

** Stratfor looks at signs the end times have begun for France’s Fifth Republic

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Summary: All the western nations are experiencing similar stress from slow growth, cultural change, immigration — and political structures that no longer well fit their societies. We can learn much from how others cope. Now its France’s turn. The results from Sunday’s elections seem unlikely to improve or resolve their problems.

French voters will head to the polls on Sunday to choose their next president from two highly unorthodox candidates. Neither the centrist Emmanuel Macron nor the far-right Marine Le Pen belong to the country’s major parties, which failed to make it to the final run-off round. The unprecedented flop of France’s traditional rulers is just the latest in a long list of signs that the political system established by Charles de Gaulle nearly 60 years ago may have run its course. Whoever wins Sunday’s election will face the formidable challenge of trying to impose themselves on a system built around the traditional parties, of which neither front-runner is a member.

The French presidency is one of the most powerful democratically elected positions in the world. The person to claim it will become the commander-in-chief of the country’s armed forces and will select its prime minister (with the approval of the National Assembly). The president also has the right to call a referendum and dissolve the lower house of Parliament at will.

** Time for the US to take a step back from Afghanistan

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BY JAMES D. DURSO

This month we learned the U.S. Marines are back in Helmand, Afghanistan’s most violent province and the center of opium poppy production, and their mission may expand. President Trump will soon decide if he should send 8,400 more troops there for the latest chapter in America’s longest war. Should he?

I think not. We gave Afghanistan out best effort: over 2,200 dead soldiers, over 20,000 wounded, and over $700 billion for everything from ammunition to medical care for veterans. We need to face the fact that it’s an endemically violent place and may never change and another “whole of government” effort may not make any difference.

And don’t take my word for it: the Talban has rejected peace talks with the Afghan government as surrendering to the enemy and against Islam.

The Afghans have seen off every visitor and invader, from Alexander the Great to the U.S. Central Command, so why spend another dollar there? For example, the regional transport network has avoided Afghanistan and the enthusiasts for a New Silk Road or One Belt, One Road haven’t absorbed that the world is avoiding Afghanistan not out of stupidity but out of hard-won experience.

Stratfor looks at Afghanistan and sees a Conflict With No Time Limit

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Summary: Stratfor has been one of the few geopolitical research shops that has seen the madness of our war in Afghanistan. So their new report deserves attention. But it will be ignored. We prefer advice from “experts” who have been consistently been wrong. Phase two of the war begins soon. The body bags will arrive soon. Only our soldiers and their families will care.

“In Afghanistan, a Conflict With No Time Limit”

Forecast Highlights. 

The Pentagon’s move to deploy more troops to Afghanistan, should U.S. President Donald Trump approve it, would be aimed at empowering the Afghan National Security Forces to eventually inflict enough casualties on the Taliban to encourage them to negotiate. 

Until the factors that contribute to the conflict — including the Afghan forces’ weakness and Pakistan’s support for the Taliban — have been addressed, the prospects for ending the war will be dim. 

Lax border enforcement between Afghanistan and Pakistan will ensure that militants continue launching attacks into both countries from the border regions, further complicating efforts to end the war. 

Pakistan and the Saudi-led anti-terror coalition:Regional implications for the appointment of Gen. Raheel

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Naveed Ahmad

Since its formation in 2015, few operational details have been released about the Saudi-led anti-terror coalition—the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (IMAFT). In the coming months, Riyadh plans to host a ministerial-level meeting of member states to sharpen the focus of IMAFT’s mission.(1) However, one critical development has already been made public: Pakistan’s former army chief of staff General Raheel Sharif has been appointed as IMAFT’s founding commander-in-chief. Gen. Raheel’s appointment coincides with planned deployment of 5,000 Pakistani soldiers to guard Saudi Arabia’s southern border. 

This paper explores the domestic and regional politics behind Gen. Raheel’s appointment and Pakistan’s participation in IMAFT.

Formation of a new military alliance 

In December 2015, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told media in Paris, “It is time that the Islamic world take a stand, and they have done that by creating a coalition to push back and confront the terrorists and those who promote their violent ideologies.”(2)

Co-designing the new Silk Road

BY Rajni Bakshi

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The very mention of a “Silk Road” evokes images of teeming bazaars filled with not just the most beautiful silks but also metal objects, oils, spices, and innumerable manufactured goods that made the lives of our ancestors colourful and comfortable.

It was along this route that the many technological advances of ancient China travelled west and to India—paper, the wheelbarrow, gun powder, and critical innovations in tools which revolutionised agriculture.

China’s plan for a Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB), also known as One Road One Belt, seeks to celebrate not just this material legacy but also the ‘Silk Road Spirit’ which, as the Chinese government’s vision document states, is about “peace and cooperation, openness and inclusiveness, mutual learning and mutual benefit.” [1]

If these values are actually to be put into practice, two key issues urgently need attention.

Firstly, in what ways can the SREB foster a 21st century version of the socially-embedded bazaar, which was the nurturer of invention, innovation, and commerce in China and India for over two millennia till the mid-18th century?

America second? Yes, and China’s lead is only growing

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By Graham Allison 

IN BOSTON, COMMENCEMENT season is a time to celebrate our world-leading universities, including engineering powerhouse MIT. But Bostonians might be shocked to learn that China’s Tsinghua University dethroned MIT as the top engineering university in the world in 2015, according to the closely-watched US News & World Report annual rankings. Tsinghua’s recent surge is not an isolated example. Everyone knows about China’s rise, but few have realized its magnitude or its consequences.

Among the top 10 schools of engineering, China and the United States now each have four. In STEM subjects (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics), which provide the core competencies driving advances in the fastest-growing sectors of modern economies, China annually graduates four times as many students as the United States (1.3 million vs. 300,000). And in every year of the Obama administration, Chinese universities awarded more PhDs in STEM fields than American universities.

For Americans who grew up in a world in which USA meant “number one,” the idea that China could truly challenge the United States as a global educational leader seems impossible to imagine.

The Chinese-American Trade Balance

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-- this post authored by Dyfed Loesche

"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing". 

A year on, Trump the President met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a two day get-together in Florida a few weeks ago. Here's data from the U.S. Census Bureau on America's trade with China.

This chart shows the value of U.S. trade in goods with China from 2004 to 2016 (in billion U.S. dollars).

An Independent Iraqi Kurdistan? On the Prospects and Viability of a Future State

By Gallia Lindenstrauss and Adrien Cluzet for Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)

In February 2016, Masoud Barzani, President of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, announced his desire to hold a referendum among Iraqi Kurds on the issue of independence. While he did not promise that the results would dictate an immediate declaration of independence, he did state that such a referendum will reveal the wish of the people, and will be realized “at the appropriate time and circumstances.”1 An informal referendum already took place in 2005, in which 99 percent of those who voted supported independence, and the idea for a formal referendum surfaced in 2014. A referendum is likely to result in a sweeping majority of Kurds favoring an independent state. As Mustafa and Aziz note, “The idea of having a sovereign Kurdistan is so popular that it is hard to find a single Kurd who would oppose it.”2 Hence the question arises, what will be Barzani’s steps following such a vote. Opposition elements inside the Kurdish Region have charged that Barzani will use the referendum to bolster his own legitimacy as president. Yet irrespective of his political ambitions, the Iraqi Kurds’ aspiration for independence is strong.

This article examines how far the Iraqi Kurds have moved toward gaining independence and establishing a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq, and will assess the likelihood of Barzani declaring independence. Beyond the issue of the Iraqi Kurds’ demands for self-determination, these questions bear on the fear of Kurdish independence that has been a long time concern for countries with a significant Kurdish minority in the region; many have invested much effort in quelling such ambitions. With the weakening of Baghdad’s central authority and the prominent role of the Kurds in the struggle against the Islamic State, never has Iraqi Kurdish independence been discussed so much. As to political orientation, a Kurdish independent state in northern Iraq will likely be a pro-Western state with a favorable attitude toward Israel.3

Official Islam in the Arab World: The Contest for Religious Authority

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NATHAN BROWN

All Arab states have large, official Muslim religious establishments that give governments a major role in religious life. These establishments have developed differently, according to each state’s historical experience. Through them, the state has a say over religious education, mosques, and religious broadcasting—turning official religious institutions into potent policy tools. However, the complexity of the religious landscape means they are rarely mere regime mouthpieces and it can be difficult to steer them in a particular direction.

Religious Institutions in the Arab World

Official religious institutions in the Arab world, though generally loyal to their countries’ regimes, are vast bureaucracies whose size and complexity allow them some autonomy.

Arab regimes hold sway over official religious structures. However, their ability to bend these religious institutions to suit their own purposes is mixed.

The evolution of official religious establishments is rooted substantially in the process of modern state formation.

Official religious institutions play multiple roles. These include involvement in endowments and charity, advice and scriptural interpretation, education, prayer, family law, and broadcasting.

RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE IN UKRAINE: BETWEEN REAL AND IMAGINABLE

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By: Sergey Sukhankin

The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic warfare. Within the past three years, Ukraine has been subjected to no less than 7,000 cyberattacks. Ukrainian cyber expert Sergey Radkevych recently claimed that “Ukraine is in a state of cyber war with Russia” and that Russian cyber activities pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s national security (Sprotyv.info, May 5).

Furthermore, military clashes in Donbas have once again demonstrated that Russian military strategists and experts believe Electronic Warfare (EW) has become the backbone of “warfare of the future.” Western sources have claimed that from December 2015, Russia started to act much more decisively aiming to “achieve kinetic effects by delivering severe blows to Ukrainian critical infrastructure” (Cna.org, March 2017). Namely, these activities included damaging/destroying command-and-control networks through jamming radio communications, hampering the work of radar systems, and muting GPS signals. The main obstacle, however, was in the lack of concrete proof and factual data pertaining to tools, gadgets and other means used by the Russians while waging EW against Ukraine. But thanks to independent investigations conducted by Ukrainian activists and cyber specialists, it is now possible to speak about Russian involvement in EW against Ukraine as an undisputed fact. And the data presented by the Ukrainians illuminates many points of ambiguity regarding Russia’s use of EW in Donbas.

Lessons from Russia's Operations in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

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PDF file 2.9 MB 

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia's approach, draws inferences from Moscow's intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

These two distinct campaigns overlap somewhat but offer different lessons for participants and observers. The report finds that Russia's operation to annex Crimea represented a decisive and competent use of military force in pursuit of political ends. Russia's operations in Crimea benefited from highly favorable circumstances — political, historical, geographical, and military — that limit their generalizability. Analysis of the operation underscores that there are many remaining unknowns about Russia's military capabilities, especially in the aftermath of its military reforms and modernization program. The report also finds that the campaign in Eastern Ukraine was an ineffectually implemented — and perhaps ill-conceived — effort to achieve political fragmentation of Ukraine via federalization and retain Russian influence. Russia achieved its primary objectives but at a much higher cost than desired and through a fitful cycle of adaptation.

This study thus questions the desirability for Moscow to replicate a course of events similar to the campaign in Eastern Ukraine. Conversely, the operation to annex Crimea was a highly successful employment of select elements within Russia's armed forces, making it an attractive use of military power, but the structural and operation factors contributing to its success raise doubts whether it can be repeated elsewhere.

A European Net Assessment of the People’s Liberation Army (Navy)

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Peter Roberts

The event took place at the Institute’s Whitehall building with more than 100 attendees from academia, industry, the military and various parliamentarians. Speakers from across Europe, Asia and the US examined the growth of capability and the ambition of China through the prisms of international relations, global politics and economics, and military balance.

The conference found that there were contradictions between China’s foreign policy statements and financial investment in its naval forces. Beijing’s statements about peaceful coexistence, mutually beneficial growth and belief in the global system seem at odds with its current approach towards the rule of law, intellectual property rights, human rights and ecological damage. It is little wonder, therefore, that many are concerned about the future direction of Chinese foreign and security policy, given that Beijing is starting to amass the systems and tools necessary to challenge the global order from a military perspective. 

Given the evidence outlined at the conference, delegates were left with the question of what Europe might do, or be expected to do, in response.

 Download the report (PDF)

James Mattis, a Warrior in Washington

Jacquelyn Martin

The former Marine Corps general spent four decades on the front lines. How will he lead the Department of Defense?

Read Full Article »

nvestigators face challenges as Libya becomes a key focus of bombing probe

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By Sudarsan Raghavan

TRIPOLI, Libya — As British investigators seek clues to potential accomplices and motives of Salman Abedi, the bomber who killed at least 22 at a Manchester pop concert, they are also focusing increasingly on Libya — and the Islamic State’s presence here. 

Authorities say Abedi, a British citizen of Libyan origin, spent four weeks here, returning to Manchester days before Monday night’s attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State. His brother, Hashem Abedi, was arrested in the capital, Tripoli, on Tuesday night for suspected ties to the group, and authorities say he was planning an attack on this Mediterranean city. 

What investigators want answered is whether Salman Abedi’s network of co-plotters extended all the way to Libya. Did he receive training or assistance in building the bomb or other preparations for the assault from Islamic State cells or operatives in Libya? 

But pursuing leads in this war-riven North African nation is rife with obstacles. A constellation of rival militias control different regions, even enclaves within the capital. There are three competing governments; the one recognized by Western powers and the United Nations wields no influence in the east. Even government bodies, including those dealing with law enforcement, are plagued by competing factions and lack of structure and cohesiveness. 

U.S. special operations forces face growing demands and increased risks

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W.J. Hennigan

Touching down before dawn, Somali “Lightning” commandos climbed out of U.S. military helicopters and carefully advanced in the dark toward a ramshackle compound tucked into muddy farmland dotted by banana trees.

U.S. surveillance had monitored the site for days after an intelligence tip signaled the location of Moalin Osman Abdi Badil, the suspected leader of a Shabab terrorist cell linked to plots against U.S. forces and their allies in Somalia.

A team of Navy SEALs joined the Somali soldiers as they slipped toward the low-slung buildings, hoping to surprise the militants. But guards heard or spotted the raiders and a fierce firefight lighted up the night.

The Pentagon says the militants killed a Navy SEAL, Senior Chief Special Warfare Operator Kyle Milliken, 38; and wounded two other SEALs in the May 5 attack near Barii, about 40 miles west of the capital, Mogadishu.

The incident not only marked the first U.S. combat death in Somalia since the infamous Blackhawk Down battle in 1993; it also underscored the risks as President Trump, like President Obama before him, increasingly relies on the Pentagon’s Special Operations Command to hunt militants around the globe.

Why We Are Surprised by Surprises

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By Joshua Teicher

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: There is a structured, persistent failure in intelligence research that scholars have either not identified or underestimate: the assessment of long-term processes that develop separately from “objective” quantitative data. This inattention can result in the undervaluation of real dangers at our door. In order to establish a more reliable picture of reality, questions should be raised that challenge the consensus. More than one forecast and predicted future should be presented by synthesizing quantitative facts together with qualitative research. Works of literature, philosophy, and poetry can also serve as seismographs to tremors in the fabric of life.

Researchers and decision-makers are regularly taken by surprise by the collapse of regimes and by military moves with long-term geopolitical and traumatic consequences. They are hit “out of the blue” and awakened from their status quo illusions. This trend is in fact likely to accelerate during times of increasing uncertainty, when there is a greater likelihood of potential danger.

Adhering to the illusion of the status quo can also result in a failure of prioritization. Decision-makers and intelligence organizations are aware of potential threats, but do not surmise that they will require speedy responses to avert danger to vital interests. One of the reasons for this is the tendency to apply thinking modes that explained past events to the new reality, missing the unique essence of the later event. (Egypt’s military entry into the Sinai in May 1967, for example, was first conceived as a repeat of its entry into the Sinai in 1960 as part of the Rotem events, which ended uneventfully.)

For the 21st Century Battlefield, Army Trains 'Cyber Warriors'

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By STEVE WALSH

In the remote Southern California desert, the U.S. Army is testing whether it can put some its most advanced cyber tools into the hands of commanders in the field.

Those tools use computer technology to disrupt communication networks, navigational systems, and other devices. And they're becoming an increasingly important part of modern warfare, especially among sophisticated military operations like those in Russia and China.

"The next place we go to fight, we don't know where that's going to be," said Commanding Gen. Jeff Broadwater, who oversees the Army's National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Cal.

Until 2013, the facility's main mission was preparing troops to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now, it's putting a greater emphasis on readying soldiers for potential enemies that are more technologically advanced.

"The enemy that we face will have developed some lessons as we've been executing in Iraq and Afghanistan," Broadwater said. 

Since last year, the Army Cyber Command has been sending small teams to work with brigades as they train at Fort Irwin and a few other locations. The pilot project started in August and is scheduled to wrap up in the next few week.

DIA Director Testifies on Top Five Global Military Threats

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By Cheryl

WASHINGTON, May 23, 2017 — North Korea, Russia, China, Iran and extremist organizations are the top five military threats facing the nation, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency said here this morning.

Airmen secure a load of cargo in a C-130H Hercules at Qayyarah Airfield West, Iraq, Feb. 3, 2017. Airmen assigned to the 737th Expeditionary Airlift Squadron delivered 30,000 pounds of cargo to aid in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jordan Castelan

Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Vincent R. Stewart testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee to discuss worldwide threats. Also testifying today was Daniel R. Coats, director of National Intelligence.

Expanding on the nature of the threats, Stewart said they include a nuclear-capable and increasingly provocative North Korea, a resurgent Russia, a modernizing China, an ambitious regional power in Iran and violent extremist organizations.

Meet the Nerds Coding Their Way Through the Afghanistan War

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Erin Delaney assumed it was a drill. She peeked down the hallway to see how other people were responding. Then she hit the deck. It was not a drill. The NATO base in Kabul where Delaney had been working for weeks was being attacked. 

Delaney, 24, had never had any military training. She grew up in San Diego, traveled up the coast for college at UC Berkeley, and spent the next two years nestled in the safe, Tesla-filled San Francisco bubble, working in the compliance department at Dropbox. Now, with her nose to the ground, she was getting a taste—however brief—of life in a war zone. 

She flipped over the visitor’s badge she’d received when she first arrived at the base. In case of attack, it said, she should stay on the ground for two minutes. Assuming nothing dire happened, she was to shelter in place until the shelling stopped. So, for about an hour, that’s what she did. “Then when things were normal, we went back to work,” Delaney says with a shrug. “And that was that.” 

The petite brunette doesn’t like to play up the drama of her time in Afghanistan. She spent only a matter of weeks on the base, and she’s wary of comparing her brush with danger to the risks that soldiers in Afghanistan face every day. Unlike them, she hadn’t traveled to Kabul to track terrorists or spend time in the countryside rebuilding the bullet-riddled nation. She’d come on a more mundane mission: to make the tech tools that NATO uses in Afghanistan suck a little less.

The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence

Keir A. Lieber 

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For decades, nuclear deterrence has depended on the impossibility of a first strike destroying a country’s nuclear arsenal. Technological advances, however, are undermining states’ abilities to hide and protect their nuclear arsenals. These developments help explain why nuclear-armed states have continued to engage in security competition: nuclear deterrence is neither automatic nor permanent. Thus, the United States should enhance its counterforce capabilities and avoid reducing its nuclear arsenal. 

Downloads 

Full text of "The New Era of Counterforce: Technological Change and the Future of Nuclear Deterrence"

Why do we need 'accidental heroes' to deal with global cyber-attacks?

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Evgeny Morozov

To appreciate the perversity of our reliance on US technology giants, you just need to grapple with the fact that one of the likely winners in the global “cyber-outage” – caused by the series of crippling cyber-attacks that hit public and private institutions worldwide a week ago – might be the very company whose software was compromised – Microsoft.

The WannaCry ransomware used in the attack wreaked havoc on organisations including FedEx and Telefónica, as well as the NHS, where operations were cancelled, x-rays, test results and patient records became unavailable and phones did not work. In the end the global spread of the attack was halted by an “accidental hero”, a 22-year-old IT security blogger from Ilfracombe, Devon. Marcus Hutchins found and inadvertently activated a “kill switch” in the malware by registering a specific domain name hidden within the program.

But even before the recent WannaCry ransomware attacks, Microsoft – always seeking to deflate any responsibility for the flaws in its products – had been advocating the establishment of the digital equivalent of Geneva conventions that would protect civilians from cyber-attacks launched by nation states. At the same time, such agreements would allocate responsibility to big tech companies that would help to ensure safety online.

The cyber-war(s) being fought right under our noses

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Bert Olivier 

TIME magazine invariably has very clever, multi-faceted covers, the latest one being no exception. It shows the White House – the American president’s residence and workplace, all in one – being slowly, but surely, devoured by Saint Basil’s Cathedral, with its red brick walls and colourful onion domes, which stands on the Red Square and is part of Russia’s Kremlin, or centre of political power. 

Metonymically speaking, it represents the Kremlin, infiltrating and transmogrifying the seat of one of the centres of American political power - the presidency. To anyone familiar with the appearance of these two buildings and what they represent, it is immediately apparent what this clever TIME cover is saying: Russia is taking over US political power in a vampire-like fashion, where the life-blood of the latter is being sucked out by the former, modifying its substance in the process.

OK, but what information is this clever picture based on? If you haven’t read it in TIME, you may have picked it up from other news sites on the internet, but wherever you have gleaned it from, you would know that it alludes not only to the now infamous, alleged Russian hacking into Hillary Clinton’s (and generally the Democratic Party’s) e-mails in the course of last year’s presidential campaign, although this is part of it insofar as the intention of such hacking – so the claim goes – was to influence the outcome of the election in Donald Trump’s favour.

*** Who are the new jihadis?

By Olivier Roy

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There is something new about the jihadi terrorist violence of the past two decades. Both terrorism and jihad have existed for many years, and forms of “globalised” terror – in which highly symbolic locations or innocent civilians are targeted, with no regard for national borders – go back at least as far as the anarchist movement of the late 19th century. What is unprecedented is the way that terrorists now deliberately pursue their own deaths.

Over the past 20 years – from Khaled Kelkal, a leader of a plot to bomb Paris trains in 1995, to the Bataclan killers of 2015 – nearly every terrorist in France blew themselves up or got themselves killed by the police. Mohamed Merah, who killed a rabbi and three children at a Jewish school in Toulouse in 2012, uttered a variant of a famous statement attributed to Osama bin Laden and routinely used by other jihadis: “We love death as you love life.” Now, the terrorist’s death is no longer just a possibility or an unfortunate consequence of his actions; it is a central part of his plan. The same fascination with death is found among the jihadis who join Islamic State. Suicide attacks are perceived as the ultimate goal of their engagement.

This systematic choice of death is a recent development. The perpetrators of terrorist attacks in France in the 1970s and 1980s, whether or not they had any connection with the Middle East, carefully planned their escapes. Muslim tradition, while it recognises the merits of the martyr who dies in combat, does not prize those who strike out in pursuit of their own deaths, because doing so interferes with God’s will. So, why, for the past 20 years, have terrorists regularly chosen to die? What does it say about contemporary Islamic radicalism? And what does it say about our societies today?

*** What I Learned from Transforming the U.S. Military’s Approach to Talent

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Ash Carter

When Army 2nd Lieutenant Joseph Riley was a senior at the University of Virginia, he ranked 10th out of 5,579 in the Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) National Order of Merit List. Upon graduation, he was proudly commissioned an Army officer and selected as a Rhodes Scholar to study at Oxford, where he pursued a master’s degree in international relations.

That was where the trouble began. In 2015 the Army informed Riley that, because of his time away, he was not being promoted alongside 90% of his peers to the rank of 1st lieutenant and he would soon be facing a board to determine whether he should be separated from the Army altogether. It took the intervention of Army Chief of Staff General Mark Milley to save Riley. Today he continues to wear the uniform.

2nd Lieutenant Riley’s background is any employer’s dream, and his retention in the armed forces is a good thing for the Department of Defense, the organization I had the honor to lead from 2015 to 2017. But the protocols that almost led to his leaving the Army are an employer’s nightmare. When contending for talent in a competitive world, no organization — let alone the largest in the world, with the largest stakes — can afford to lose employees like 2nd Lieutenant Riley.

*** An Invisible Curtain Falls Between Russia and the West

By Jon Sather

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The Cold War ended over 25 years ago, but the lingering Soviet specter continues to haunt the Western world. Since the election of Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2000, a new conflict has been brewing, this time in cyberspace. And on a battlefield monopolized by the United States and Russia, the historical threats of nuclear war, ambitions of global dominance and aspirations of containing the enemy may not be the relics of the past we imagine them to be.

The Next Weapon of Mass Destruction

Nuclear war is still a very real and pressing threat. But the increasingly pervasive cyber threat is just as critical and even harder to counter. Layered onto the tensions that arose during the Cold War, cyberwarfare has added new dimensions to politically based threats, scalability of tactics, deniability of action and strategies of containment — all made possible, and performed remotely, with a new weapon: the computer. As Mr. Wabash so aptly put in "Three Days of the Condor," it's hard not to "miss that kind of clarity" the old Cold War provided.

** Colin Powell: American Leadership — We Can’t Do It for Free

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By COLIN POWELL

At our best, being a great nation has always meant a commitment to building a better, safer world — not just for ourselves, but for our children and grandchildren. This has meant leading the world in advancing the cause of peace, responding when disease and disaster strike, lifting millions out of poverty and inspiring those yearning for freedom.

This calling is under threat.

The administration’s proposal, announced Tuesday, to slash approximately 30 percent from the State Department and foreign assistance budget signals an American retreat, leaving a vacuum that would make us far less safe and prosperous. While it may sound penny-wise, it is pound-foolish.

This proposal would bring resources for our civilian forces to a third of what we spent at the height of Ronald Reagan’s “peace through strength” years, as a percentage of the gross domestic product. It would be internationally irresponsible, distressing our friends, encouraging our enemies and undermining our own economic and national security interests.

* This Tragic Stat Shows How Much We’re Relying On Elite Combat Units

By Brian Adam Jones 

As the United States wages a protracted war in Afghanistan and a 16-year-long Global War on Terror that has received renewed commitments from President Donald Trump, the Los Angeles Times has highlighted a stunning reality in a new profile published May 25: More than half of the American combat fatalities since 2015 have befallen service members assigned to U.S. special operations units.

The detail reveals the increased pressure placed on members of the military’s most elite units, which include the Navy SEALs and special warfare combatant crewmen, the Army’s Green Berets and Ranger battalions, the Air Force’s pararescuemen, and the Marine Corps’ MARSOC Raiders. To that end, consider this statistic: six U.S. service members have been killed in combat thus far this year. Five of them were either members of the Navy SEALs, Army Green Berets, or the 75th Ranger Regiment.

High-profile deaths of American special operators have drawn attention to Trump’s aggressive stance with the use of American military power. This includes the death of Navy SEAL Chief Petty Officer William “Ryan” Owens, who was killed in a raid in Yemen just nine days into the Trump presidency. It also includes the death of Navy SEAL Chief Petty OfficerKyle Milliken, killed earlier this month fighting al Shabaab militants in Somalia, as part of the expanded use of military force there. Milliken is the first U.S. service member to die in combat in Somalia since 1993, when 18 American troops were killed in the “Black Hawk Down” incident. There are currently roughly 50 special operations forces deployed in Somalia, working with the Somali military to conduct anti-terrorism operations against al Shabaab. The commander of U.S. forces in Africa, Marine Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, sought for and received increase autonomy from the Trump administration in conducting strikes against al Shabaab in Somalia earlier this year.

Time for Modi to reset foreign policy strategy

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K C Singh

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s three-nation visit starting May 29 is an interesting mix of destinations. He visits Germany for the Biennial Inter-governmental Consultancies (BIC), begun in 2011. In Russia, he attends the annual bilateral summit, combined with the 21st St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 1-3, which is Russia’s premier economic conference for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of nine of the 15 former Soviet republics. The detour to Spain is a fresh foray to a nation rising from an economic crisis. Despite internal political uncertainty over a minority government led by Mariano Rajoy of the conservative People’s Party, Spain, having been led by socialist governments for 22 of the 29 years till 2011, there are technologies such as renewable energy that beckon India.

Both Germany and Russia are vital for India to balance China’s assertive rise and Donald Trump’s uncertain ways characterised by friends and foes as being hugged and berated randomly. The world is unsettled and India is already late in crafting a counter-strategy, as Russia has already drifted towards China. India this year appears to have been, to wit Samuel Beckett’s play, Waiting for (American) Godot. The Prime Minister’s current trip ameliorates that delay.

With The Long-Haired Boys

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Yoginder K. Alagh

127 million tonnes, as President Mukherjee said at the centennial function, and those who made fun of us were profuse in their praise.

At a recent event where a commemorative centennial volume on Indira Gandhi’s life and works was released, President Pranab Mukherjee made a point of her commitment to self-reliance in food. The release of a coffee table book is not quite the occasion to detail the obstacles she faced, and the resoluteness with which she resolved them, but that is quite an untold story. It is a little difficult for the present generation to visualise an India which is living from hand to mouth. Food reserves were unthinkable. The food policy literally consisted of meeting deficits from PL 480 US imports and organising their distribution. Mrs Gandhi knew that global aid and the Bretton Woods systems wanted India to be dependent in this nexus. I was fortunate in getting a ringside view of this great episode in India’s history.

I had modeled a long-term plan for Gujarat and Sukhomoy Chakravarty brought me to the Planning Commission to head its powerful Perspective Planning Division (PPD), an honour I accepted for term deputation, since I did not want to join the government permanently. My predecessor, the indomitable Pitamber Pant, was a friend of Indira Gandhi. The files I inherited were always marked Pitamber to Indira. Her perspectives were clear. She was humiliated when India had to beg for grain and she wanted India to be liberated from these clutches. The PPD was mandated to build a plan for food self-reliance and if there were difficulties, to get back to the PMO.

The march to spectacle

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Pratap Bhanu Mehta

The relationship between the Indian Army and Indian democracy might be entering new and unchartered waters. The ethical and constitutional issues in the incident involving Major Nitin Leetul Gogoi using a human shield have been discussed well by two columns (‘Why Major Gogoi is wrong’, by Omar Abdullah, IE, May 24, here and ‘A blemished medal’, by Praveen Swami, IE, May 25 here). But there is a larger institutional transformation underway that does not bode well, either for democracy or the army. A professional army needs three things: Broad social legitimacy where the worth and excellence of the institution is recognised; a clear set of political goals and a legal framework within which it can operate; and the right degree of professional autonomy, where it can exercise judgment based on the highest professional standards. The “human shield” crisis has revealed that all three are under more threat than we recognised.

The threat emanates from an unlikely source. Whether we like it or not, we live in an age of spectacle, where the dominant political idiom is a seemingly unmediated conversation with the public. It used to be that you were nobody if you did not have money or power; now, that is sometimes not necessary, and often, it is not sufficient. Politics has become a frenzied contest over unmediated representation, with an impatience for all institutions and processes. But that has also inflected other institutions. Parts of many institutions, including the judiciary and bureaucracy, have also convinced themselves that merely doing their professional jobs will not get them social legitimacy or visibility. Something else, some splash, was required. In boring terminology, this is called communication. But underlying it is a shift in the norms of social legitimacy. You are nobody if you have not trended. This is disfiguring many institutions.

SOME ADVICE ON FOREIGN POLICY MATTERS.

Mohan Guruswamy

Sometime ago a senior official of the government called on me to seek my views on foreign policy issues. It is the first time it has happened since Narendra Modi became PM. Going by experience in conversing with IFS officials, I knew I will not get many sentences in. As it so happened I barely managed a few words. I also paid for the lunch at the IIC. Knowing what to expect, I quickly knocked out a few points for consideration and putting into the system. I usually don't mind if ownership changes in the process, if some good comes out of it. Here goes:

India’s foreign policy is much too focused on Europe and North America. While the centricity towards America can be understood given the USA’s world pre-eminence, a similar attitude towards Europe may not be required.

India must focus on the near and on its expanding economic interests. Most of India’s oil comes from West Asia and Africa. The UAE is the initial destination of most Indian exports. India earns over $40 billion as remittances from the region. Our focus must be to become influential here. We need to impress with our embassies and by greatly expanding their visibility and footprint.

Trump’s Imaginary “Strategy” for Afghanistan

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by Ehsan M. Ahrari

Everyone was waiting for President Donald Trump’s new strategy for Afghanistan. But the announcement of that strategy came as a repeat of President Barack Obama’s original version of that strategy. It stated that Trump is likely to send as many as 5000 additional US troops to Afghanistan. 

Like almost all policies in the realm of domestic and foreign policy, Trump liked nothing about his predecessor’s way of conducting the Afghan war. So, the expectation was that he would announce a different approach to that war. But Afghanistan has a forbidding way of surprising everyone.

After sending his Secretary of Defense, James Mattis, and his National Security Advisor, Lt. General H.R. McMaster, to Afghanistan on “fact finding missions,” Trump found out that the Afghan war is not a winnable one; and the United States has no choice but to stay put and find some sort of a negotiated solution. In the interim, increasing ground troops appears to be a make-believe version of a strategy. That was precisely what Obama was doing.