By Popular Mechanics Editors
Russia and China are introducing new weapons of war. ISIS fighters hide among civilians and attack with no regard for casualties. And somehow North Korea has managed to become even less stable than it was before.
Russia's new Buk-M3 surface-to-air missiles are built on tank treads and have nearly twice the range—43 miles— of their predecessors.
Justin Metz
THE (NEW) TROUBLE WITH RUSSIA
Surface-to-air-missiles
In modern warfare, owning the sky is everything. And the cheapest way to own the sky is to shoot down, from the ground, anything that tries to fly in it. The Russian military is currently fielding a new midrange surface-to-air missile system, the Buk-M3, that has the potential to change everything. And by change we mean destroy. Start with the eyes: a powerful phased-array radar that steers its beams electronically to track targets. The vehicle has a new digital brain that can accept data from longer-range radar, which means the M3 will be able to shoot before some systems would have even identified the incoming aircraft. It has six radar-guided missiles with a range of up to 43 miles—a huge improvement over the 28-mile range in the older Buk-M2. Then there are the treads: The M3 is built on a tracked chassis, like a tank, making it highly mobile, easy to conceal, and eventually likely to be sold to rogue nations in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. This weapon is having an effect in European air forces without even firing a shot, says Sim Tack, senior analyst for the private security firm Stratfor. It severely limits the potency of Cold War–era aircraft—and of any aircraft whose name doesn't include the word stealth.
Tanks
NATO forces like to strike where the enemy is not expecting it, so their tanks are built to maneuver off-road over long distances. The Russians, however, have a different approach: Concentrate the firepower on one spot, using tanks to break through enemy defenses. Russia's new T-14 tank, currently in field tests, is the world's most deadly. For the first time in a turreted main battle tank, the entire crew is cocooned inside an armored capsule in the hull. The T-14 is also the first main battle tank to have a fully auto-mated, unmanned turret. Which is even worse for what it means is coming in the future. "A remote-controlled turret lends itself to building what could be the first remotely operated tank," says Tack. "We've seen the rise of UAVs over the past decades. We could see a similar evolution for actual ground combat vehicles as well." The good news for NATO is that the Russians may not be able to afford many T-14s. "By the time they can field the T-14 in any numbers, the next-generation tank might be ready and they'll be back to the same game," Tack says.
Fighter Jets
It's been a long time since the U.S. had to worry about losing airplanes in a dogfight or has fretted that an enemy airplane could slip past radar to bomb air bases. But a new class of stealth warplanes from Russia (PAK-FA, pictured) and China (J-20, J-31) is adding new lines to the foreheads of the guys at the DOD. The world's air forces—and the global network of defense media— have been following the development of these aircraft for years, even before their secret first flights in 2010 and 2011. Stealth airplanes revolutionized modern warfare for the U.S., as they're used to eliminate air defenses so that older, easily seen aircraft can attack other targets. Now we have to deal with potential enemies having them too.
THE THREAT: ENEMY SPACECRAFT DESTROYING OUR SATELLITES
The Response: A Space Defense Telescope
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One of the world's most powerful telescopes sits on Army property, standing a lonely vigil in the desert south of Albuquerque. The Space Surveillance Telescope (SST), developed by DARPA, has been gazing at space for five years and spotted 3,600 new asteroids, four comets, and 69 near-Earth objects in that time. But such work is merely a preamble for its real job—to scour Earth's orbit looking for threats to vital satellites, including collisions with
"NORTH KOREA IS GOING TO HAVE A NUCLEAR DEVICE ON A MISSILE THAT CAN REACH AT LEAST THE WESTERN PART OF THE U.S.—AND THEY WILL PROBABLY DO SO WITHIN THE FIRST TERM OF PRESIDENT TRUMP."
small enemy spy spacecraft or space junk. In November the telescope's new Air Force owners took over, a big step toward readying the telescope for its military mission. The SST won't be staying in New Mexico, either. The Pentagon will relocate the telescope from the White Sands Missile Range to Harold E. Holt Naval Communication Station in Western Australia. The new site is expected to be up and running in 2020.
THE THREAT: ISIS' EXPLODING DRONES
The Response: Radar Systems With Built-In RF Jammers
ISIS has experimented with drones since 2013, primarily for surveillance. Last fall, however, the terrorist group added a new element: bombs. According to Don Rassler, director of Strategic Initiatives at West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, terror organizations have tried to use weaponized drones since at least 1994, when a Japanese group plotted to use a remote-controlled helicopter to spread sarin gas. The helicopter is presumed to have crashed— something that's a lot less likely with today's drones, which can practically fly themselves. In fact, Rassler says, as consumer devices gain range and carrying capacity, we're going to see more flying IEDs.
This development has necessitated a new need for drone-detection systems. One such system identifies the radio-frequency signals that control drones. Another, from a company called Drone Shield, builds a comprehensive audio database of drone sounds. Each model on the market is recorded to create an audio signature, which can be used to locate and identify any nearby drones. And in September the nonprofit government research corporation MITRE wrapped a challenge to develop a definitive system. The result combines radar and cameras to detect the drones, and RF jammers to render them inoperable. "We can just buy them off Amazon," Rassler says. "But drones making their way to Syria? [ISIS] doesn't have all that they would like."
THE THREAT: ENEMY TANKS
The Response: The Lightweight Personal Bazooka
Anyone looking to chart the kind of wars theU.S. Army thinks its infantry will be fighting need only look at the amount of firepower the troops carry. The M3 recoilless rifle is an antiarmor weapon that shoots a highly explosive round that can take out a light vehicle, destroy a small house, or eliminate a defensive bunker. Although the weapon was originally restricted to special ops, fights in Iraq and Afghanistan highlighted the need for infantrymen to bring explosives to gunfights without waiting for artillery or air support. In response, last year the Army opened the M3's use to all Army troops. Now the 69-year-old M3 is getting an upgrade, making it six pounds lighter and easier to use while wearing modern helmets that have night-vision fixtures. Saab, the company that makes them, says new M3E1 models, which the Army expects to deliver to soldiers in the spring, are ready for intelligent-sight systems that have rangefinders and are compatible with "smart" munitions. These include explosive rounds that can be programmed for airburst shots that can kill foes who are hiding behind cover. But sometimes it's the little things that matter most. Soldiers using the current M3 mark each shot by hand in a notebook that stays with the weapon. When the notebook is lost, the weapon's service life is cut short to avoid battlefield malfunctions. But not so with the M3E1. It has an automatic shot counter.
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THE THREAT: HARD-TO-REACH ENEMIES
The Response: Drones That Can Take Off From Anywhere
A joint project between DARPA and the Navy, Tern is a tailsitter drone. It literally sits on its tail. This means that, unlike most military surveillance drones, which take off like airplanes, Tern needs no runway. With two contra-rotating blades, it can take off and land like a helicopter, making it perfect for small ships and rough terrain.
THE THREAT: LAND MINES:
The Response: Bomb-Detecting Spinach
Scientists at MIT, led by chemical engineering professor Michael Strano, modified wild spinach using trace nanoparticles to emit an infrared signal when it detects explosives in the soil. "The plant brings groundwater in the soil up through the roots," Strano says, where any explosives cause a reaction. Which means detecting a land mine becomes much more simple. Just aim a cellphone camera at the spinach, and as long as it looks fluorescent, you know you're safe. While we won't exactly be planting spinach in Syria, this is an important first step to using plants to warn people of unseen issues like dangerous pollutants. And even if there are no bombs, you'll always have plenty of vitamin K.
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THE THREAT: INSURGENT FIGHTERS:
The Response: Drones That Automatically Spot Weapons
DARPA's Squad X scans terrain to find armed people. The U.S. currently prohibits using autonomous weapons for lethal activity, but if that were to change, the drones could be adapted to automatically perform surgical strikes too.
THE THREAT: ENEMY DOGFIGHTS
The Response: Autonomous Wingman
In a program called Loyal Wingman, the Air Force plans to turn retired F-16 jets into unmanned aides that can be controlled by a nearby F-35. They just need a few years to get ready. Target date: 2022.
THE THREAT: ENEMY SUBMARINES
The Response: A Crewless Tracking Ship
In the past, drones would locate vessels to be tracked before crewed ships were dispatched to follow them. The Navy's new Sea Hunter, currently in testing, does all of this on its own, cruising the open ocean for up to three months at a time, where it can automatically detect and follow a diesel–electric sub from nearly two miles away.
WHAT SCARES ME
Leon Panetta, CIA Director, 2009–11; Secretary of Defense, 2011–13
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When I went into the CIA, I was told that we were getting somewhere in the vicinity of 100,000 cyber attacks a day. We went through this, frankly, with the nuclear arms race. Countries were in a race to develop larger and more dangerous nuclear bombs. Finally the world realized that we should impose some limits, otherwise we were going to blow up the planet. We were able to develop some approaches to try to limit nuclear proliferation. We are probably going to have to do the same thing when it comes to cyber.
"WHEN I WENT INTO THE CIA, I WAS TOLD THAT WE WERE GETTING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF 100,000 CYBER ATTACKS A DAY."
Robert Gates, CIA Director, 1991–93; Secretary of Defense, 2006–11
North Korea is going to have a nuclear device on a missile that can reach at least the western part of the U.S.—and they will probably do so within the first term of President Trump. The second challenge with North Korea is their political leadership. Kim Jong-un is more reckless than his father and probably not as smart. He executed his own uncle, his closest advisor. Rumor has it that he strapped him to the front of an antiaircraft gun and then blew him apart. So the question is, what works? The only thing anyone has come up with, other than military action, is somehow persuading Beijing that constraining North Korea is the highest priority. The problem is that the Chinese are more worried about the collapse in the North and the potential reunification of their peninsula under a pro-American government than they are about North Korea using nuclear weapons.
Dale Drew, chief security officer at Level 3 Communications, a telecommunications company and internet service provider
What worries him: The accessibility and adaptability of Mirai, the malware used to take over smart thermostats, remote cameras, and other Internet of Things (IoT) devices. Mirai was used to stage the distributed denial-of-service attack that took down sites including The New York Times, Netflix, and Reddit in 2016.
Why: "We typically see evolution of botnets occur fairly slowly over time, but with Mirai, that first code has been released [online, so that other hackers can add their own features]. It's a fairly sophisticated botnet right out of the gate, and we've seen a lot of people evolving it with new capability and new features—not only in acquisition of victims, but also capability to attack."
Martin McKeay, senior security advocate at Akamai, a Cloud service provider
What worries him: The weak-to-nonexistent security of Internet of Things devices—smartphones, refrigerators, baby monitors, etc.—and the potential expansion of these attacks to medical devices.
Why: "Hackers use hard-coded usernames and passwords to load code into the memory on IoT devices. Simply shutting down and rebooting the device is the easiest way to get rid of the infection, but when you turn the devices on again, you may find they are soon reinfected with Mirai. These devices shouldn't be directly connected to the internet in the first place. They should all be behind a firewall. [If someone were to] make a worm and let it loose in a hospital and it could target insulin pumps or heart defibrillators, you could kill people."
Eyal Ronen, cyber researcher at Israel's Weizmann Institute of Science
What worries him: Even with the right security precautions, devices will still be vulnerable.
Why: "There needs to be a basic change in which all these commercial alliances set the security for IoT devices. They currently sit with security experts and write code that doesn't go through outside review. There should be a red-team approach to see if their code can be challenged and hacked before it is implemented. I was able to attack a high-end cryptographically protected network of Philips IoT lighting devices thanks to a bug in their software. It was the first place I looked. Like Google and some other software companies, everyone should offer bounty programs to computer experts to make their code safer."
Dean Sysman, chief technology officer at Cymmetria, a cybersecurity company
What worries him: The potential of botnet attacks not just to slow down a few sites but to allow hackers to completely remove people from the internet.
Why: "If someone were to attack routers, he could probably have control over millions of people's internet connections. Or if he was able to make one of the root DNS services go out—which would require attacking numerous corporate servers and is totally possible—we could lose the entirety of the .com or .uk domains."
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