Genevieve Casagrande
The U.S strike against an Assad regime base in northern Syria on April 6, 2017 opened the door to a reorientation of American strategy in the Middle East. President Trump’s action could reset the terms of America’s confrontation of other hostile states, such as North Korea. President Trump may be shifting away from a narrow focus on the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) as the strategic priority in Syria and toward a new approach. It remains unclear whether he will take additional action against the Assad regime, but his statement after the strike appeared to signal an emerging anti-Assad policy. Responses from major international powers and key regional actors indicate that these parties perceive the strike represents a possible strategic inflection rather than an isolated incident. President Trump has the opportunity to exploit the effects of his limited action to pursue America’s strategic goals.
Regional actors responded as if a wider American reorientation against Assad is possible. Traditional U.S. partners in the region like Saudi Arabia and Jordan supported the strike. Turkey also praised the strike and called for additional U.S. action against the Assad regime. These reactions indicate that the strike created an opportunity for President Trump to repair America’s relationships with traditional partners, which had begun to reorient toward Russia or to act unilaterally in dangerous ways in the absence of American leadership. European states under Russian pressure also supported the strike, indicating that the U.S. can still shape European policies toward Syria. President Trump may have an opportunity to leverage European support for counter-Assad measures to reengage Europe on the need to confront Russia in Syria. Actors deeper within the Russo-Iranian orbit, including Egypt and Iraq’s Shi’a political parties, expressed caution.
The pro-regime axis—Assad, Iran, and Russia—reacted in different but complementary ways. The Assad regime and Iran initially responded with caution. Their reactions indicate shared intent to avoid additional U.S. responses. The Assad regime downplayed the impact of the strike and resumed normal operations. Iran portrayed the U.S. as a regional aggressor but did not take military action. Iran’s initial reaction reflected a desire not to provoke the U.S. to escalate against Assad. Iran’s proxies also displayed discipline and did not escalate above previous levels of anti-American rhetoric. Iran’s response indicates that Iran seeks to avoid drawing the U.S. further into the region. The lack of immediate escalation by Iran or its proxies does not indicate that Iran will fail to respond if the U.S. takes additional action against Assad. Iran will undertake a sophisticated and possibly offensive strategy against U.S. interests and personnel in theater if it perceives further U.S. action against Assad is likely. Iran will also attempt to develop a joint response with Russia.
Russia’s initial response was reactionary. Russia focused first on repairing Vladimir Putin’s strongman image and the perception of the strength of Russian aerial defensive capabilities by condemning the strike and undertaking a show of force. Russia deployed a missile frigate to the Mediterranean Sea, conducted massive domestic military exercises, halted use of the aerial deconfliction mechanism with the U.S. in Syria, and stated it would bolster the Assad regime’s air defenses to deter further U.S. action. Russia later stated that it will speed up development of the S-500 system for domestic air defense. Russia shifted its narrative approach after 24 hours to cast President Trump as reckless. Russian rhetoric and propaganda portrayed the U.S. as an irresponsible aggressor in an effort to deny popular support for further U.S. intervention in Syria.
Pro-Regime Axis
Assad regime
07 APR: Syrian Information Minister Mohammad Tourjman stated that the strike had been “expected” and “limited in time and scope” while downplaying the possibility of “any military escalation” by Syria and Russia. Tourjman alleged that the strikes aimed to “support terrorist organizations” after their “heavy losses” at the hands of pro-regime forces. Tourjman claimed that the affected airbase was a “specialized base in the fight against terrorism.” (Reuters, Hurriyet, SANA)
07 APR: The Syrian Presidency Office condemned the strikes as an “unjust and arrogant aggression” against a “sovereign state” and accused the U.S. of “attempting to dominate the world” through “reckless and irresponsible acts.” The statement vowed to “increase the pace of operations” against “terrorist agents” in Syria. (SANA)
07 APR: The Syrian Arab Army General Command accused the U.S. of conducting a “blatant act of aggression” that undermines operations against terrorism. The statement accused the U.S. of acting as a “partner” to ISIS and al Qaeda in Syria and “sending wrong messages” that will “embolden [terrorists]...to use chemical weapons in the future.” The statement noted that the military will respond by “continuing its national duty” to “beat terrorism” and “restore security and stability to the entire territory” of Syria. (SANA, YouTube)
07 APR: Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad stated that the strikes represented “aggression as defined by international law” that aimed to undermine the Syrian Arab Army. Mekdad noted that the strikes came after the “failure of the recent aggression” by Israel on Syria, stressing that the “two aggressions cannot be separated from each other.” Mekdad condemned the “fallen and unreliable opposition” for “fabricating allegations” against the regime rather than participating in the Geneva and Astana Talks. Mekdad stated that the U.S. remains committed to “supporting the terrorists” in order to weaken Syria against Israel and warned that countries backing the opposition will “all pay a heavy price” from the “terrorist attacks [that] will target them next.” (SANA)
07 APR: Syrian Presidential Media Advisor Bouthaina Shaaban claimed that the strikes came under “false pretenses” to “rescue terrorists” and “undermine powers which fight terrorism” after gains by pro-regime forces. Shaaban accused the U.S. of conducting an “aggressive act without enough evidence” and noted that Israel is a “major beneficiary” of the conflict. Shaaban stated that Syria will support Russia at the UN Security Council to “condemn the U.S. aggression on a sovereign state.” (SANA)
08 APR: Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis stated that the strikes represented “blatant support to terrorism” and emphasized that the incident will “increase [our] determination to confront the terrorist war.” (SANA)
Russia
07 APR: Russia called for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council in response to the U.S. strike. Russian deputy U.N. envoy Vladimir Safronkov stated that the U.S. strike on Shayrat was “illegitimate” and warned that it could have “extremely serious” consequences. (Reuters, Kremlin, UNSC)
Foreign Ministry announced the suspension of the air deconfliction mechanism with the U.S. in Syria. (The Hill, Zaman al Wasl, AP, AFP)
07 APR: The Kremlin condemned the strike as “aggression against a sovereign state” that violated international norms under “far-fetched pretexts” of a chemical weapons attack. The statement warned that the strike “inflicted considerable damage” to bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russia. (AP, Reuters, Reuters, AFP)
07 APR: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned that the strikes had come “one step away from military clashes” with Russia. (AP, Reuters, Reuters, AFP)
07 APR: Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairperson Konstantin Kosachev stated that the strikes “put to rest without even being born” any possible counter-terrorism cooperation between the U.S. and Russia. (AP, Reuters, Reuters, AFP)
07 APR: Russian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov stated that Russia will take a “complex of measures “to strengthen air defenses and “protect the most sensitive infrastructure” in Syria. (AP, Reuters, Reuters, AFP)
07 APR: Russian military holds a combined arms drill for the Eastern Military District that includes the participation of four combat aviation groups from the Southern military district. (RG.RU)
07 APR: The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the redeployment of the Admiral Grigorovich from the Black Sea to Tartous, Syria. (Newsweek)
07 APR: Russia opens a branch of its International Mine Action Center in Homs Province. (Sputnik)
08 APR: Commander of the Russian Aerospace Force Col. Viktor Bondarev announced that the Russian S-500 air defense system will be put in service “in the near future.” (Sputnik)
07-08 APR: Russian officials alleged that the U.S. strike against the Assad regime benefitted ISIS, leaving pro-regime forces without air support during ISIS ground operations in the area. (RT, Tsargrad.tv, UNSC)
08 APR: The Russian Foreign Ministry alleged that the U.S. is using direct military action against Assad in order to “divert attention” from recent civilian casualties from U.S.-led coalition airstrikes in Mosul, Iraq. (Sputnik)
08 APR: A pro-regime airstrike targeted the town of Khan Shaykhoun in southern Idlib, the site of the chemical weapons attack, killing one woman. (SOHR, Chicago Tribune)
Iran
07 APR: Head of Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Alaeddin Boroujerdi called the U.S. airstrikes on Syria a “conspiracy” because “everyone in the world knows that the Syrian government… has handed over all its chemical weapons.” Boroujerdi said that the airstrikes demonstrate the “defeat” of U.S. policies in the Middle East. Boroujerdi stressed that the airstrikes’ “consequences will not be good for America.” Boroujerdi said that Trump’s decision to launch the airstrikes is contrary to his promises during his campaign and thus “shows Trump’s decline.” Boroujerdi stated that Iran’s response to the airstrikes will occur “according to [Iran’s] cooperation with Russia, Iraq, and Syria.” Boroujerdi stated, “Undoubtedly, America’s ill-advised action will be followed by serious consequences, because Russia and Iran will not sit quietly in the face of acts which are contrary to the region’s interests.” Boroujerdi also noted that a country usually chooses to use chemical weapons when its armies are failing in war, and stated that “the Syrian army is in its best position right now. Aleppo has been liberated and other areas are also being liberated. (IRNA, Shafaqna, Asr Iran)
07 APR: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that just as the U.S. resorted “to military force” in its invasion of Iraq in 2003 “over bogus [chemical weapons] allegations,” so it is resorting to military force “over bogus [chemical weapons] allegations” in its airstrikes in Syria. Zarif claimed that “Not even two decades” after the September 11 attacks, the U.S. military is “fighting on the same side” as al Qaeda and ISIS in Yemen and Syria. (ISNA, IRNA)
07 APR: Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Ghassemi stated that “Iran condemns any use of chemical weapons, regardless of the perpetrators and the victims.” Ghassemi indicated that the U.S. used the “suspicious chemical attack” as an “excuse” to launch the airstrikes. Ghassemi stressed that America’s “use of a chemical attack in Syria” as “pretext for unilateral action is dangerous, destructive,” and in “violation of peremptory principles of international laws.” Ghassemi stated America’s actions will “reinforce declining terrorists and add to the complexity of the situation in Syria.” (CNN, Fars News Agency, Fars News Agency)
07 APR: Hossein Amir Abdollahian, the international affairs advisor to Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, stated that the U.S. airstrikes prove “that the fight” against ISIS is “still” not America’s “priority.” Larijani called the airstrikes “hasty,” contrary to international law, and “to the detriment of regional and global security.” He stressed that the U.S. is ignoring international endeavors to resolve the Syrian crisis politically. (Tasnim News Agency)
07 APR: Interim Tehran Friday Prayer Leader Ayatollah Mohammad Emami Kashani stated that the U.S. launched the airstrikes in order to conceal its “support for the terrorists.” Emami Kashani reiterated the regime’s statement that the U.S. helped create terrorist groups in the region. He also stated that the allegation that the Assad regime was responsible for the chemical weapons attack is a “lie.” (Fars News Agency, IRNA)
Iranian Axis Parties
07 APR: The al Houthi movement in Yemen backed Syria’s Assad regime. Al Houthi-Saleh Prime Minister Abdul Aziz bin Habtour condemned the U.S. cruise missiles strikes in Syria as a “blatant violation of a sister Arab state's autonomy” and a violation of international law. Bin Habtour expressed support for the Iranian and Russian governments for their condemnation of the attacks. Bin Habtour also stated that he is not surprised by Arab states expressing their support for their attack, as they are also “official sponsors of the Sunni extremist terrorist groups that kill the Syrian people.” The Political Council of Ansar Allah (al Houthi political union) issued a formal statement mirroring bin Habtour's and added that it supports “any steps to respond to the American aggression” taken by Syria. (Saba)
07 APR: Iranian proxy militia Harakat al Nujaba spokesperson Hashim al Mousawi stated that the U.S. airstrike “does not change the rules of engagement and our position does not change (regarding) the direction of the war in Syria.” Nujaba blamed the chemical weapons attack on the U.S. as an attempt to save “terrorist gangs.” He added that the airstrike was in response to the shooting down of an Israeli aircraft targeting Syrian air defenses. (Facebook)
07 APR: A statement by the political bureau of the Badr Organization reported that the U.S. strike against the Syrian Government was based off on “flimsy” pretenses. The statement continued, condemning the “brutal attack” calling it “a serious turning point in the Syrian crisis” and stressing the concern of international and Arab communities that the attacks will “constitute an opportunity to strengthen terrorist groups in the area.” The Badr Organization reiterated that the “Syrian people alone have the right to self-determination and to choose their system of government with full freedom and sovereignty” and called on the international community to use diplomacy to resolve the Syrian crisis and assist only in counter-terrorism matters. (al Ghadeer)
07 APR: Media Spokesman for the Badr Organization Jaafar al Quraishi stated that Syria is fighting terrorism and that the U.S. strike on a Syrian airbase was the “wrong target” and the U.S. did not “act correctly with targeting Syrian and Russian forces at the Shayrat airbase.” (RUDAW)
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