It was hard to greet the announcement last week of a new cease-fire in Syria without wariness. In six years of fighting, more than 400,000 people have been killed and entire cities devastated. This is a conflict that wouldn’t have happened, or lasted so long, save for the cynical brutality of President Bashar al-Assad and his chief allies, Russia and Iran.
The cease-fire took effect on Friday, and while violations have been reported, the world has to hope this one will outlast two previous cease-fires in 2016 and prove to be a turning point. One would think Mr. Assad would wonder what he could gain by fighting on. He evicted rebel groups from Aleppo last month and has strengthened his position. The countries guaranteeing the truce — Russia, Iran and Turkey — also wield considerable might on the battlefield.
For two years, while bolstering Mr. Assad’s brutal regime, President Vladimir Putin of Russia dabbled with the United States in efforts to arrange the earlier cease-fires and negotiate an end to the civil war. Now, during a fraught transition of power in Washington, Mr. Putin has effectively marginalized the United States and maneuvered into position as the dominant international player in Syria.
Russia moved into this role gradually as Mr. Obama held the United States back from direct military action in the civil war. Although Mr. Obama provided modest support for some rebel groups, he was determined to stay out of another Middle East conflict that neither the American people nor Congress wanted. Many experts and international leaders believe that decision has cost America prestige and influence.
At the moment, Mr. Putin looks like a master tactician for reasserting Russian influence in Syria, a client during the Cold War of the Soviet Union and more recently of Iran. No one should forget that he achieved this by failing to restrain Mr. Assad before the war began and then by collaborating with Syrian forces in devastating airstrikes on civilians and hospitals, which may be war crimes. It remains to be seen whether Mr. Putin can ensure that the war does in fact end and that he can withdraw his military. Then there is the question of whether he is willing and able to take responsibility for Syria’s future, including rebuilding the cities that Russia helped destroy.
The cease-fire developed last week after Russian, Iranian and Turkish officials agreed in Moscow to halt the fighting and broker a peace deal. The Americans were excluded, and while the State Department insisted this was not a snub, it obviously was. Mr. Putin has made clear his preference for President-elect Donald Trump, and Mr. Trump has made clear that the feeling is mutual.
The Moscow meeting was notable, and concerning, for the growing collaboration between Russia and Turkey, despite the recent assassination of the Russian ambassador in Ankara. Unlike Mr. Putin, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has long been committed to ousting Mr. Assad. But Turkey’s support for the rebels may be weakening in exchange for Russia’s giving Turkey a free hand to go after Kurdish forces in Syria that Mr. Erodogan considers allies of Kurdish separatists in Turkey.
In theory, if the civil war ends, Syrians could begin to rebuild their lives, and other countries, including the United States, could finally focus their full attention on fighting the Islamic State. But much could still go wrong. Issues that have derailed past peace plans remain unresolved. The biggest one is whether Russia will insist that Mr. Assad remain in power in a country where he controls only about one-third of the territory and is hated by the majority Sunni population for killing so many of their kin. Russia now owns that problem.
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