*** Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) and the Uncertain Cost of U.S. Wars

By Anthony H. Cordesman

MAY 10, 2016

The United States has been involved in some form of warfare or conflict for most of the period since 1941, and has been continuously at war since September 11, 2001—nearly a decade and a half. The United States has never, however, come to grips with the reality of its involvement in such conflicts. Its official reporting on each conflict has been erratic at best, and has never really addressed the details of the cost of its wars, nor has it ever really addressed its strategies or how they were intended to be implemented. Furthermore, official U.S. reporting has not provided net assessments of the forces involved, nor has it provided a clear picture of the effectiveness of its military and civil efforts.

A new study by the Burke Chair at CSIS examines the cost of U.S. fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and other “wars” related to terrorism and extremism as it is reported in U.S. budget data on Overseas Contingency Operations. This study is entitled Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) and the Uncertain Cost of U.S. Wars, and is available on the CSIS web site athttp://csis.org/files/publication/160510_OCO_US_Wars.pdf.

The study puts these cost estimates in the broader context of estimates of the past cost of U.S. wars, the relative size of U.S. military efforts compared to other powers, the overall burden that military spending puts on the U.S. economy, and how spending on U.S. wars compares to the overall levels of spending on defense. It shows that:

The cost of U.S. wars since 2001 has been substantial, and has been high relative to past limited U.S. wars as measured in constant dollars.

*** Water Clouds on the Tibetan Plateau

Kevin Frayer

May 9, 2016

Ten of Asia’s major rivers flow from the Tibetan Plateau and fill river basins that provide water to more than 1.35 billion people, a fifth of the world’s population. Demand for this water, propelled by population growth and rapid urbanization, is soaring while supply is under increasing pressure from accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers and other factors. A water crisis looms. Overall, Asia has the world’s lowest per capita water availability and arable land, according to an Asia Development Bank report. Experts warn that the region needs to improve cooperation on water management soon or run the risk of conflict over water resources.

Why is the Tibetan Plateau important?

The Tibetan Plateau is home to the Himalayas, the world’s tallest mountain range. The Himalayas are at times referred to as the “third pole” because they hold the largest concentration of ice and glaciers outside the northern and southern poles. Glacier melt and mountain springs function as a water tower for billions of people. The waters originating from the plateau feed rivers flowing out of China across continental Asia. Scientists say the Himalayas also influence weather patterns, which help to predict rainfall and flood cycles.

** Islamic State and Its Affiliates

By Karen Leigh, Jason French and Jovi Juan

http://graphics.wsj.com/islamic-state-and-its-affiliates/

Islamic State announced the formation of a caliphate in the heart of the Middle East in June 2014. Now, some 22 months later, it claims affiliates in countries as far-flung as Nigeria, Russia and Afghanistan. The nature of the ties between the Sunni Muslim extremist group and its branches varies widely, and can be murky, as information about the group is often difficult to obtain. Islamic State and its affiliates are prolific distributors of online propaganda material, including videos depicting hostage executions, battle training and threats to western countries. Here is a look at some of the Islamic State affiliates that have emerged. 

Numbers: About 5,000 members, according to Libyan intelligence and U.S. officials

In Libya, Islamic State took root amid the political turmoil in the North African nation since the 2011 overthrow of dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Since late 2014, three armed Islamist groups have claimed allegiance to Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi: Tripoli Province in the west, Barqa Province in the east, and Fezzan Province in the south. The three groups are mainly differentiated by location and are believed to be tied to a central command. The factions have fighters in major Libyan cities—including the capital Tripoli, Misrata, Derna and Benghazi—and frequently battle security forces in disparate areas of the country. Over time, Tripoli Province has become dominant among the three groups, operating in the most populous territory in Libya. 

*The Face of Future Combat

WALTER PINCUS

MAY 10, 2016 

http://thecipherbrief.com/column/fine-print/face-future-combat-1092

There will be a glimpse into the future of warfare – both offense and defense – on display tomorrow, May 11, in the Pentagon’s Center Courtyard.

It’s Demo Day sponsored by the Defense Advanced Research Agency (DARPA) where the defense community gets a look at what this agency describes as “its diverse portfolio of innovative technologies and military systems at various stages of development and readiness, spanning every military domain from undersea to outer space and across all of DARPA's strategic focus areas, from sensors and microsystems to cyber and spectrum to biological technologies and counterterrorism.”

DARPA, which had been at the forefront of the development of technologies, such as the Internet, GPS, and unmanned aircraft, will have 68 exhibitors in ten different operations areas, including ground warfare, air, and counterterrorism.

One display in the Cyber area will be the current state of Plan X, a $120 million, multi-year program that began in 2012 as research “to develop platforms for the Department of Defense to plan for, conduct, and assess cyberwarfare in a manner similar to kinetic warfare.” As it has continued, Plan X attempted to make it easier for monitors to visualize a network and its components, and automate the identification of hostile or benign anomalies and make it easier to prevent hostile parties from gaining access and causing damage to a network.

Can India Balance Between China and America?

Ajaya Kumar Das

May 10, 2016

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Some in the Indian strategic community believe that recent moves to enhance defense cooperation with the United States could make India, among others, an element in American strategy to limit Beijing’s rising power to the inevitable detriment of India’s relations with its powerful neighbor. Others consider that the “benefits outweigh [the] costs”—especially for India to meet the threat of Chinese maritime ascendancy in the Indian Ocean—and that “Delhi must not let commonsense with Beijing turn into a policy of self-denial with Washington.” Can India find a space in which it can positively engage with both a rising China, and a United States pursuing a “pivot” to Asia to remain a global power?

While the answer is yes, India will also find itself in a position, as it forges strategic ties with the United States, where it must also keep its relations with China from worsening. Contrary to the comparison that China has solid relations with Pakistan despite its close military relationship with the United States, the growing Indo-U.S. strategic partnership must account for China—particularly since both share a geopolitical objective to prevent any Chinese dominance in the Asia-Pacific, and as strong like-minded states in Asia like Japan could also attempt to contain its rise.

‘Right Sizing’: Cold Start vs Cold Feet

By Lt Gen JS Bajwa

11 May , 2016

http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/right-sizing-cold-start-vs-cold-feet/

The bugle call is sounded – ‘Right size’ the Army.

Right size to fit what politico-military strategy? That is the begging question.

War on one front? Or a two front war?

Limited war or protracted war?

Pre-emptive/proactive (Cold start) or Strategic Restraint (Cold Feet!!)

“Aar par ki Ladai” or limited forays?

Restricted to the Line of Control (LC) and /or Line of Actual Control (LAC)?

What about the sanctity of the International Boundaries (IB)?

What is/are the political objective(s) that are sacrosanct?

…there are fewer men in actual combat – bayonet strength – and more in manning numerous way points of technology that is necessary to feed intelligence and all sorts of inputs to this fighting soldier in a network centric war scenario.

These are the vital questions that the government of the day needs to put on the table for the military to work out the scenarios and corresponding force levels for each scenario panning out independently or simultaneously. Without this vital input asking the Army to ‘Right Size’ would be only a rhetorical pronouncement. Personal proclivities sans in-depth study and vigorous debate can in the end to be disastrous.

MBDA’s Brimstone enhancements complete final Operational Evaluation Trials

By IDR News Network

10 May , 2016

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The Brimstone air-to-surface missile developed by MBDA has successfully undertaken challenging operational evaluation trials by the Royal Air Force (RAF) that confirm the performance of the missile’s latest technical enhancements. This was achieved during February 2016 at China Lake in the USA as the culmination of a programme to advance the operational edge this highly capable missile brings. Brimstone has a record of approximately 500 missile firings with a very high success rate since its entry into service.

The operational evaluation trials involved 11 missile firings, including at the edge of the weapon system’s performance envelope. The trials were conducted against a variety of operational scenarios with precise hits on very small, fast moving vehicles and against complex static targets. The trials included single and salvo firings, whilst laser, millimetric radar and dual mode guided modes were used, as was ground-based, third party laser designation.

The trials demonstrated the missile engagement envelope is significantly increased over the in-service missile, providing a 100% increase in stand-off range (based on MBDA modelling and release ranges of the in-service missile), and a significantly increased ability to engage targets at high off-bore sight angles. This improves the ability to fire from a launch platform performing a close air support (CAS) flying pattern (‘wheel’) over the battlefield, without the need to manoeuvre the platform to align with the target.

Re-location of ITBP Frontier HQs from Shillong to Itanagar

By Gautam Sen

11 May , 2016

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It has been reported that the Government has recently started the process of shifting the North East Frontier Headquarters of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) from Shillong to Itanagar.

The basic decision to shift was taken some time ago and the implementation process has been in progress for quite some time. What appears to be happening now is an acceleration in the pace of execution. The decision is thus not new and it is not exactly related to any recent change in the ground disposition of the Chinese and Indian border forces or alteration in the threat perception along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The North-East Frontier HQs of ITBP has been in Shillong (like those of other para-military forces) for historical reasons, but the force did not have adequate self-owned accommodation in that city – the erstwhile capital of the undivided State of Assam. There is no doubt that ITBP would be able to better manage its assets and deployments from Itanagar as compared to Shillong.

Notwithstanding the above, the move to Itanagar implies improved command and control of forces and related assets along the Arunachal segment of the LAC because of the lesser distance involved and the relatively easier connectivity. It is also understood that the shifting of the Frontier HQs would facilitate the deployment of seven to eight more ITBP battalions along the LAC as well as the opening up of a number of additional border posts and camps.

Top Indian nuke scientist busts myths surrounding 'dirty bomb'

10 May, 2016

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There are many myths around a dirty bomb. Not only about dirty bomb, you talk about radiation, there are myths. 30-40 years back, even to take an X-ray people were scared, but today the awareness has come to the level that people are asking for an X-ray.

Mumbai: More than a Hiroshima or Nagasaki- type atom bomb today, security agencies worry about the use of a 'dirty bomb', especially by terrorists. 

So how dangerous is a 'dirty bomb' or an explosive-laced with radioactive material? 

On the eve of the anniversary of the Pokhran explosions, K S Pradeepkumar, head of emergency preparedness for India's main nuclear laboratory Bhabha Atomic Research Center here, busts some of the commonly held myths about dirty bombs and says India is well prepared to detect such devices thanks to a countrywide network. 

Excerpts from an interview. 

Q: These days there is a lot of fear of something called a 'dirty-bomb'. What is a dirty bomb? 

A: Dirty means it is dirty, that is it will not really harm you but it makes you uncomfortable. See it is like getting dirt on your dress that does not mean you are going to die or that yourhealth is in trouble but definitely, you have to go and change your dress. 

The Perils of a Grand Strategy that is Intelligence-led

BY ALI AHMED 

10/05/2016 • 

http://thewire.in/2016/05/10/the-perils-of-a-grand-strategy-that-is-intelligence-led-35095/

While the hijack of grand strategy by the intelligence community is amply evident, what is not clear is whether this is the product of the rise of majoritarian political forces or a logical extension of the state’s existing predisposition towards relying on its intelligence arm.

With national security adviser Ajit Doval being an old intelligence hand, it was only to be expected that the intelligence arm of strategy would gain prominence in India’s grand strategic repertoire. This is, of course, a mixed blessing. Around the world, wherever intelligence has led strategy, this has tended to compromise national security. The harmful effects have been even more pronounced when grand strategy has been by intelligence. As Indians, we need look no further than Pakistan, where intelligence-driven policies in Afghanistan and Kargil have produced strategic disasters for Islamabad.

Even India’s great intelligence-driven victory in the 1971 war has not been without its aftershocks. Pakistan first furthered disaffection in Punjab and then concentrated on Kashmir. An intelligence-led strategy in Kashmir, described in some detail recently by a renowned practitioner with leadership experience in both the Intelligence Bureau and Research and Analysis Wing, has not brought India any closer to closure. Instead, the situation in Kashmir continues to hurt the country.

Corruption in the Pakistan army and its effect in Baluchistan

By Mehtab Karan Singh

Date : 11 May , 2016

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The sacking of six army personnel on charges of corruption by Pakistan Army Chief, General Raheel Sharif is eliciting all the right noises in the political, media and social circles of the country. Here is a man, his sycophants are saying, who has not stopped at even punishing his own to give a righteous message to the nation. He is being heralded as the ultimate nationalist!

A slightly deeper look into the whole incident, however, raises a relevant question. After being sacked or dismissed from service, why were these corrupt soldiers not arrested and subject to judicial scrutiny? The manner in which this incident has played out reinforces the perception that Pakistani soldiers get preferential treatment to the extent of being above the law of the country.

It is also quite evident that the high and mighty in Pakistan can maintain their position only by singing paeans of the all powerful General.

While this political posturing on corruption in underway, one is reminded of the book, Military Inc, written almost a decade back by the Pakistani author, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa. The brave lady risked her life to expose the Pakistan army as being more oriented to business than soldiering.

The Truth About the Deporations of Alleged Taiwanese Scammers from Kenya to China

By Michael Turton

May 11, 2016

Source Link

On the morning of Tuesday, April 12, 2016, the news broke in Taiwan that eight Taiwanese fraud suspects had been deported from Kenya to China the previous Friday (Mainland Affairs Council officials said they knew at midnight on Friday). That group was quickly followed by the deportation of another 37 to China. This caused a media firestorm. Commentators as varied as pro-Taiwan commentator J. Michael Cole, to former UN Ambassador John Bolton, to Elizabeth Economy at the Council on Foreign Relations, along with many media outlets, immediately read this action in terms of the conventional media framework for understanding cross-strait relations: everything that happens relates to the sovereignty issue between Taiwan and China. China, they told us, was signaling to incoming President Tsai Ing-wen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that things were going to be tougher, and tensions were rising. This reading of events sells papers and attracts clicks, but it is fundamentally wrong. In reality, though China was signaling Taiwan, it had nothing to with Tsai Ing-wen or China’s desire to annex Taiwan.

Why China’s Not Afraid of Donald J. Trump

By AARON MAK 

May 08, 2016

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TAIPEI, Taiwan — After months of lamenting that “we are being ripped so badly by China” in trade and that it is “playing us like a fiddle” in dealing with North Korea, Donald Trump took his tough-on-China rhetoric to new extremes last week, declaring on Sunday, “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country” with trade deficits. “It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world,” the presumptive Republican nominee said.

By Tuesday, Trump’s vulgar metaphor was the fourth-most-discussed topic on the Chinese Twitter equivalent Weibo, but the reactions in Chinese media and social media have been surprisingly tepid. Most Weibo comments consist of guffawing emojis and crude jokes. The Global Times, the state-run conservative tabloid, argued that Sino-American trade has in fact benefited the United States, all while still dismissing Trump’s statement as a mere ploy to rally his populist base. On the state-managed Chinese news website Interface, one article even touted the “rape” comment as cause for a Trump presidency: Better for the U.S. president to care about business deals than aggressively promoting America’s democratic values abroad or bolstering U.S. allies in Asia.

China's Economy Is Past the Point of No Return

Gordon G. Chang

May 10, 2016

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After a near-disastrous start to the year and a one-month recovery in March, the Chinese economy looks like it’s now headed in the wrong direction again. The first indications from April show the country was unable to sustain upward momentum.

Even before the first dreadful numbers for last month were released, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research termed the uptick the “Dead Panda Bounce.”

The economy is essentially moribund as there is not much that can stop the ongoing slide. A contraction is certain, and a severe adjustment downward—in common parlance, a crash—looks likely.

At the moment, China appears healthy. The official National Bureau of Statistics reported that growth in the first calendar quarter of this year was 6.7 percent. That is just a smidgen off 6.9 percent, the figure for all of last year. Moreover, the quarterly result cleared the bottom of the range of Premier Li Keqiang’s growth target for this year, 6.5 percent.

The first-quarter 6.7 percent was too good to be true, however. And there are two reasons why we should be particularly alarmed.

China's Growing Influence Means India Losing Economic Ties With Neighbors

09.05.2016

If aid and loans are markers of diplomatic relationships with neighboring countries, is India losing its grip to China?

Data from India's Ministry of External Affairs shows that aid and loans to neighboring countries have decreased by, in some cases, as much as 100%. The biggest fall in contribution as aid and loan has been that to Maldives. According to statistics, India's contribution to Maldives as aid, loans and advances was $27.54 million in the 2015-16 financial year, falling to $6.02 million for the 2016-17 financial year.

The Ministry of External Affairs attributes this to the fluid political situation in Maldives and a lack of clarity on specific investment opportunities. In 2011, India had promised to provide aid of up to $75 million to Maldives, but could not disburse the amount due to the stated reasons. 

On average India's annual aid to Nepal was $60.21 million, however, in the current financial year, only $45.16 million has been earmarked in India's budget as aid to the country. Aid to Bangladesh has been reduced to $22.58 million for the 2016-17 financial year, from $37.64 million in the 2015-16 financial year. This is also the case with Afghanistan (from $102.8 million to $78.2 million), Sri Lanka (from $75.2 million to $34.6 million).

Map: Connecting central Asia A ribbon of road, rail and energy projects to help increase trade

by: Jack Farchy and James Kynge
https://next.ft.com/content/ee5cf40a-15e5-11e6-9d98-00386a18e39d#axzz48CJOG4H9

China’s “One Belt, One Road” project aims to make central Asia more connected to the world, yet even before the initiative was formally announced China had helped to redraw the energy map of the region. It had built an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan, a gas pipeline that allowed Turkmenistan to break its dependence on dealings with Russia and another pipeline that has increased the flow of Russian oil to China.

Suppliers looking for ways around Russian restrictions

Chinese companies have funded and built roads, bridges and tunnels across the region. A ribbon of fresh projects, such as the Khorgos “dry port” on the Kazakh-Chinese border and a railway link connecting Kazakhstan with Iran, is helping increase trade across central Asia.

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China is not the only investor in central Asian connectivity. Multilateral financial institutions, such as the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank have long been investing in the region’s infrastructure. The Kazakh government has its own $9bn stimulus plan, directing money from its sovereign wealth fund to infrastructure investment. Other countries, including Turkey, the US, and the EU have also made improving Eurasian connectivity a part of their foreign policy.

1) Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway A China-led consortium last year won a $375m contract to build a 770km high-speed railway line between Moscow and Kazan. Total investment in the project — set to cut journey time between the cities from 12 hours to 3.5 hours — is some $16.7bn.

2) Khorgos-Aktau railway In May last year, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev announced a plan to build — with China — a railway from Khorgos on the Chinese border to the Caspian Sea port of Aktau. The scheme dovetails with a $2.7bn Kazakh project to modernise its locomotives and freight and passenger cars and repair 450 miles of rail.

3) Central Asia-China gas pipeline The 3,666km Central Asia-China gas pipeline predated the new Silk Road but forms the backbone of infrastructure connections between Turkmenistan and China. Chinese-built, it runs from the Turkmenistan/Uzbekistan border to Jingbian in China and cost $7.3bn.

Related article

India watches anxiously as Chinese influence grows

A $46bn economic corridor through disputed territories in Kashmir is causing most concern

4) Cental Asia-China gas pipeline, line D China signed agreements with Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to build a fourth line of the central Asia-China gas pipeline in September 2013. Line D is expected to raise Turkmenistan’s gas export capacity to China from 55bn cu m per year to 85bn cu m.

5) China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway Kyrgyzstan’s prime minister Temir Sariev said in December that the construction of the delayed Kyrgyz leg of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway would start this year. In September, Uzbekistan said it had finished 104km of the 129km Uzbek stretch of the railway.

6) Khorgos Gateway Khorgos Gateway, a dry port on the China-Kazakh border that is seen as a key cargo hub on the new Silk Road, began operations in August. China’s Jiangsu province has agreed to invest more than $600m over five years to build logistics and industrial zones around Khorgos.

Related article

First freight trains from China arrive in Tehran

Land route takes 14 days compared with 45 by sea

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Could North Korea Secretly Build an Iranian Bomb?

Peter Brookes

May 10, 2016

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Editor’s Note: The National Interest and the Heritage Foundation have partnered for a multi-part occasional series examining various aspects of the Iran nuclear agreement. The below is part four of the series. You can read previous parts here: one, two and three.

Last summer’s Iran nuclear deal has been roundly criticized for a number of solid reasons, ranging from Tehran’s ability under the deal to continue advanced centrifuge research to lingering questions about the possible military dimensions of its nuclear program.

That’s all well established.

One issue that has been largely ignored—wittingly or unwittingly—is this: What if Iran were able to find a suitable partner to collude with on a ‘‘underground” nuclear weapons program, all while seemingly staying within the restrictions of the July 2015 nuclear deal?

In other words, Tehran could by all public accounts adhere to the P5+1’s (China, France, Germany/European Union, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). But concurrently, Iran could work clandestinely with another country to advance its nuclear weapons program, essentially circumventing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s inspections and monitoring of the nuclear program inside Iran.

The War Against ISIS Cannot Be Won Without More U.S. Troops

Liz Sly

May 9, 2016

The war against the Islamic State hits hurdles just as the U.S. military gears up

BEIRUT — After months of un­expectedly swift advances, the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State is running into hurdles on and off the battlefield that call into question whether the pace of recent gains can be sustained.

Chaos in Baghdad, the fraying of the cease-fire in Syria and political turmoil in Turkey are among some of the potential obstacles that have emerged in recent weeks to complicate the prospects for progress. Others include small setbacks for U.S.-

allied forces on front lines in northern Iraq and Syria, which have come as a reminder that a strategy heavily reliant on local armed groups of varying proficiency who are often at odds with one another won’t always work.

When President Obama first ordered U.S. warplanes into ­action against the extremists sweeping through Iraq and Syria in 2014, U.S. officials put a three- to five-year timeline on a battle they predicted would be hard. After a rocky start, officials say they are gratified by the progress made, especially over the past six months.

Since the recapture of the northern Iraqi town of Baiji last October, Islamic State defenses have crumbled rapidly across a wide arc of territory. In Syria, the important hub of Shadadi was recaptured with little resistance in February, while in Iraq, Sinjar, Ramadi, Hit and, most recently, the town of Bashir have fallen in quick succession, lending hope that the militants are on the path to defeat.

Ben Rhodes Needs Some Fresh Air

By Fred Kaplan

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Ben Rhodes, left, is Obama's deputy national security adviser for strategic communications. Above, Rhodes, Obama, and Denis McDonough on Air Force One, June 4, 2009.

About a week ago, I told a friend that I didn’t understand how people like Ben Rhodes—who’s been working as deputy national security adviser since President Obama’s first day in the White House—could stand the nonstop pressure without going crazy. Then came David Samuels’ profile of Rhodes in the New York Times Magazine, and I wondered if he’d gone nuts after all.

The piece quotes Rhodes as ragging on the press corps (27-year-olds who “literally know nothing” other than political campaigns) and the foreign policy establishment (“the Blob”); boasting of how he manipulated reporters and commentators on the Iran nuclear deal (“We created an echo chamber,” with reporters “saying things that validated what we had given them to say”); and boosting his own status considerably (“I don’t know anymore where I begin and Obama ends”).

Why was an experienced operator like Rhodes saying these things to a reporter on the record? And does he believe what he was saying?

Virtual Militarism Grows Into Real Peril for Russia

By: Pavel K. Baev

May 9, 2016 

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Tanks rumbled through Moscow over the past week before rolling across Red Square today (May 9) in the traditional, extravagant military parade marking Victory Day. Unlike in 2015 (which marked the round 70thanniversary of the end of World War II), there were no notable foreign guests in attendance at this year’s showcase of Russia’s military might. But as Russia’s economy sinks deeper into recession, the need to again put on a spectacular show has become even greater than last year. The propaganda campaign aimed at boosting “patriotic” feelings has reached new heights, but it is difficult to reliably gauge its effectiveness. Recycling past glory can produce only so much resonance in today’s population; so appropriating the Soviet Union’s heroic victory over Nazi Germany as a means to assert the legitimacy of the Vladimir Putin regime’s aggressive but ineffectual policies is growing a bit stale (Carnegie.ru, May 4). What distinguishes the celebrations this year is the propaganda message that Russia is again surrounded by malevolent enemies and only military might can deter their encroachments (Moscow Echo, May 7).

A great deal of false pretence underscores this glorification of militarism. Consequently, some authors argue that instead of revealing its shallowness, it could just be shrugged off as a modern form of carnival (Gazeta.ru, May 6). However, quite real risks are associated with this loudly declared commitment to rebuff all hostile manoeuvres. Russian officials are furiously protesting against the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) exercises in the Baltic states and promising far-reaching “countermeasures” (Newsru.com, May 4; Novaya Gazeta, May 3). Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu assures that the four NATO battalions that could be deployed in the Baltic theatre would face two new Russian divisions, while a third one will be stationed near the Donbas war zone (TASS, May 4). More protestations are issued about the small-scale exercise in Georgia, Noble Partner 2016, in which 650 troops from the United States 150 troops from the United Kingdom will train together with 500 Georgian soldiers. In Moscow’s opinion, this exercise amounts to a major “provocation” aimed at destabilizing the situation in the South Caucasus (Rbc.ru, May 6). It is remarkable that Russia is not staging any parallel exercises, but the urge to respond with guaranteed overkill is still dangerous.

Time to Push Back on Russia's Nuclear Threats

Steven Pifer

May 10, 2016

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/time-push-back-russias-nuclear-threats-16138

At a May 3 NATO change-of-command ceremony, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter questioned the Kremlin’s tactic of nuclear saber-rattling. Moscow’s jarring rhetoric about nuclear weapons aims to intimidate the West. It has led to unwise suggestions for how the United States and NATO should respond, ideas that should be ignored. Carter, however, should go beyond what he said and more specifically rebut the Russian leadership’s misguided notion of nuclear brinksmanship.

In parallel with its aggression against Ukraine, the Kremlin has sought to rattle the West, including with nuclear threats. President Vladimir Putin regularly talks about Russia as a nuclear superpower, even bizarrely suggesting that he was prepared to go on a nuclear alert when the Russian military seized Crimea in 2014. His loose talk emboldened the Russian ambassador in Denmark last year to threaten to target that country with nuclear weapons.

Carter said that such saber-rattling “raises troubling questions about Russia’s leaders’ commitment to strategic stability, their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons, and whether they respect the profound caution that nuclear-age leaders showed with regard to brandishing nuclear weapons.”

Cheaper Fossil Fuels: The Relevance Of Nuclear Energy – Analysis

By Julius Cesar I. Trajano*
MAY 11, 2016

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As carbon-intensive fossil fuels have become cheaper, would nuclear power continue to be relevant? Nuclear power can help countries in their diversification from fossil fuels. But public concerns over post-Fukushima nuclear safety continue to haunt the global nuclear industry.

The global prices of fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – have been steadily declining for months and the world is awash with cheaper fossil fuels. Meanwhile, there is renewed interest in investing in nuclear power projects. According to the World Nuclear Association, of a total of the US$1.2 trillion that could be invested in new nuclear power projects worldwide by 2030, half will be made in Asia. While in Europe, potential nuclear investments will amount to only US$179 billion due to the scarcity of new nuclear projects there. What would then be the relevance of nuclear power amidst plummeting fossil fuel prices?

Oil is primarily used in transport, while nuclear power is used to generate electricity. These are still two separate sectors. So the direct impact of the low oil price on nuclear energy would be limited. However, other cheap fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal may have direct impact on nuclear power as these are among the main sources of electricity generation.

Mitigating Climate Change

Cheaper Fossil Fuels: The Relevance Of Nuclear Energy – Analysis

By Julius Cesar I. Trajano*
MAY 11, 2016

Source Link

As carbon-intensive fossil fuels have become cheaper, would nuclear power continue to be relevant? Nuclear power can help countries in their diversification from fossil fuels. But public concerns over post-Fukushima nuclear safety continue to haunt the global nuclear industry.

The global prices of fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – have been steadily declining for months and the world is awash with cheaper fossil fuels. Meanwhile, there is renewed interest in investing in nuclear power projects. According to the World Nuclear Association, of a total of the US$1.2 trillion that could be invested in new nuclear power projects worldwide by 2030, half will be made in Asia. While in Europe, potential nuclear investments will amount to only US$179 billion due to the scarcity of new nuclear projects there. What would then be the relevance of nuclear power amidst plummeting fossil fuel prices?

Oil is primarily used in transport, while nuclear power is used to generate electricity. These are still two separate sectors. So the direct impact of the low oil price on nuclear energy would be limited. However, other cheap fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal may have direct impact on nuclear power as these are among the main sources of electricity generation.

Mitigating Climate Change

U.S. vs Russia: Struggling for Undersea Nuclear Supremacy

Leonid Nersisyan

May 9, 2016

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In a previous article, we examined the overall number of strategic nuclear warheads and carriers in the United States and Russia, including their compliance with the New Start Treaty. We also analyzed in detail the abilities of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the arsenals of both countries, and their prospects for development. Here, we will look at both countries’ submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

Let us briefly return to the Treaty for the Further Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) and the second-to-last report on its performance, dated January 1, 2016 (the most recent one contains no data on the number of specific types of strategic carriers), prepared by the U.S. Department of State. According to the report, 236 of 762 deployed strategic carriers are Trident II SLBMs. Furthermore, they carry 1,012 (around 66 percent) of the 1,538 nuclear warheads available in the U.S. arsenal (according to data from April 1, the overall amount of warheads has reduced to 1,481, though it is difficult to tell which carriers caused the change). At the same time, Minuteman III land-based ICBMs carry 441 warheads (around 28.5 percent), while strategic bombers add up to eighty-five carriers with one warhead each (around 5.5 percent).

Thus, ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) constitute the backbone of the U.S. strategic nuclear force.

Pentagon Busy Hardening Key Military and Intelligence Satellites

Christian Davenport

May 10, 2016

A fight to protect ‘the most valuable real estate in space’

The first salvo was a missile launch by the Chinese in 2007 that blew up a dead satellite and littered space with thousands of pieces of debris. But it was another Chinese launch three years ago that made the Pentagon really snap to attention, opening up the possibility that outer space would become a new front in modern warfare.

This time, the rocket reached close to a far more distant orbit — one that’s more than 22,000 miles away — and just happens to be where the United States parks its most sensitive national security satellites, used for tasks such as guiding precision bombs and spying on adversaries.

The flyby served as a wake-up call and prompted the Defense Department and intelligence agencies to begin spending billions of dollars to protect what Air Force Gen. John Hyten in an interview called the “most valuable real estate in space.”

Faced with the prospect of hostilities there, defense officials are developing ways to protect exposed satellites floating in orbit and to keep apprised of what an enemy is doing hundreds, if not thousands, of miles above Earth’s surface. They are making satellites more resilient, enabling them to withstand jamming efforts.

A fight to protect ‘the most valuable real estate in space’

By Christian Davenport 

May 9 

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Airmen work in the Joint Space Operations Center at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The center detects, tracks, and identifies all artificial objects in Earth orbit. (U.S. Air Force/U.S. Air Force)

The first salvo was a missile launch by the Chinese in 2007 that blew up a dead satellite and littered space with thousands of pieces of debris. But it was another Chinese launch three years ago that made the Pentagon really snap to attention, opening up the possibility that outer space would become a new front in modern warfare. 

This time, the rocket reached close to a far more distant orbit — one that’s more than 22,000 miles away — and just happens to be where the United States parks its most sensitive national security satellites, used for tasks such as guiding precision bombs and spying on adversaries. 

The flyby served as a wake-up call and prompted the Defense Department and intelligence agencies to begin spending billions of dollars to protect what Air Force Gen. John Hyten in an interview called the “most valuable real estate in space.” 

The Hypersonic Glide Vehicle Arms Race – Analysis

By Debalina Ghoshal*

MAY 10, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/10052016-the-hypersonic-glide-vehicle-arms-race-analysis/

Within the scope of Project 4202, Russia conducted a flight test of its Yu-71 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) with a speed of 11,200km/hour in June 2015. This HGV which Russia has been working on for a while now to enable its ballistic missiles to evade U.S. missile defence systems, is reported to be highly maneuverable. Reports confirm that Russia will deploy twenty four such systems between 2020 and 2025. Reports suggest that the hypersonic vehicle could be fitted on Russia’s new liquid fuelled Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Russia is the third country to venture into such hypersonic vehicles along the United States and China.

Technically, an HGV is called a “glide vehicle” as its rocket component separates from the HGV and allows the HGV to fly unpowered to the target. These vehicles can also perform aerodynamic lifts, gliding to transit into a non-ballistic trajectory from a ballistic trajectory. HGVs possess unpredictable maneuverability, however, excessive maneuverability could adversely affect the range of the vehicles.

Twitters Bans Use of Its Dataminr Analytics Service by Intelligence Agencies

Christopher S. Stewart and Mark Maremont

May 9, 2016

Twitter Inc. TWTR 1.98 % cut off U.S. intelligence agencies from access to a service that sifts through the entire output of its social-media postings, the latest example of tension between Silicon Valley and the federal government over terrorism and privacy.

The move, which hasn’t been publicly announced, was confirmed by a senior U.S. intelligence official and other people familiar with the matter. The service—which sends out alerts of unfolding terror attacks, political unrest and other potentially important events—isn’t directly provided by Twitter, but instead by Dataminr Inc., a private company that mines public Twitter feeds for clients.

Twitter owns about a 5% stake in Dataminr, the only company it authorizes both to access its entire real-time stream of public tweets and sell it to clients.

Dataminr executives recently told intelligence agencies that Twitter didn’t want the company to continue providing the service to them, according to a person familiar with the matter. The senior intelligence official said Twitter appeared to be worried about the “optics” of seeming too close to American intelligence services.

Twitter said it has a long-standing policy barring third parties, including Dataminr, from selling its data to a government agency for surveillance purposes. The company wouldn’t comment on how Dataminr—a close business partner—was able to provide its service to the government for two years, or why that arrangement came to an end.

Defining a Cyber Act of War The rules regarding this dangerous threat aren’t clear—some concision is urgently needed

Mike Rounds 

May 8, 2016

http://www.wsj.com/articles/defining-a-cyber-act-of-war-1462738124

The federal government has a fundamental responsibility to provide for the nation’s defense. Until recently, the government has fulfilled that role almost exclusively through nuclear deterrence and conventional military forces. But a new type of warfare—in cyberspace—is emerging as a top threat to America.

In recent years, foreign actors have used sophisticated technologies to acquire the personal files of millions of federal employees, to gain access to the private information of multibillion-dollar U.S. businesses, and to tap into the control center of the Bowman Avenue Dam in New York, among many other known cyberattacks.

Yet Washington has no clear policy for responding to a cyberattack. If an attack against the U.S. occurs through conventional military means, the policies are clear. These guidelines must be broadened to include the cyber domain. 

Current U.S. policies permit the Defense Department to respond to a cyberattack against military forces and infrastructure. But the U.S. doesn’t have a clear policy governing the Pentagon’s response to a similar attack against critical civilian infrastructure. 

If an attack occurs today, would the U.S. be able to respond in a timely manner? In the cyberworld, an attack can occur in mere milliseconds, requiring an appropriate response in real time. That might not be possible if explicit policies are not in place.