Rahul Bhonsle
The seventh meeting between U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and India’s Defence Minister Shri Manohar Parrikar on 8 December saw firming up of the framework for “major defence partner,” marking a new partnership between the two countries. This was the mandate given to the defence ministers in the joint statement issued after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with U.S. President Barack Obama in June 2016
The Joint Statement states “Noting that the U.S.-India defence relationship can be an anchor of stability, and given the increasingly strengthened cooperation in defence, the United States at this moment recognises India as a Major Defense Partner. As such: (1) The United States will continue to work toward facilitating technology sharing with India to a level commensurate with that of its closest allies and partners. The leaders reached an understanding under which India would receive license-free access to a wide range of dual-use technologies in conjunction with steps that India has committed to take to advance its export control objectives. (2) In support of India's Make In India initiative, and to support the development of robust defense industries and their integration into the global supply chain, the United States will continue to facilitate the export of goods and technologies, consistent with U.S. law, for projects, programs and joint ventures in support of official U.S.-India defense cooperation”.
The partnership is marked as, “defence,” and not strategic or military thus indicating the focus is likely to be on defence technology, co-development and co-production. This is in line with the trend in the relationship with two proposals under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), “the Next Generation Protective Ensembles and Mobile Hybrid Power Sources – worth roughly $2 million”.
There has been a setback of sorts in the interim as the US Senate failed to pass a resolution moved by “Republican Senator John McCain had moved an amendment to the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA-17) to recognise India as a global strategic and defence partner. NDAA was passed by the Senate with an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 85-13. But some of the key amendments including the (SA 4618) even though they had bipartisan support could not be passed by the Senate.”
As the tenure of US President Barack Obama ends this year and Carter will also demit office as Lt Gen John Mattis has been nominated as the candidate for Secretary of Defence by Presidential elect Donald Trump, it was important that the framework for Major Defence Partner was established. Ashton Carter has been one of the strongest proponents of closer defence relations with India and thus for him it will be mission accomplished.
Despite the bipartisan support to closer defence cooperation with India, there are concerns of the trajectory under the Trump Administration. With the President-elect Donald Trump’s focus on jobs in the United States – Made in the USA, India’s IT sector which is a major beneficiary of contracts in the US may suffer even as business has receded with some companies caught up in allegations of corruption. Plans to shift entire production lines by Boeing or Lockheed Martin are one of the next major steps in defence co-production which may go against the Made in USA mandate. Thus a potential clash between Made in USA and Made in India may be in the offing. These are of course uncertainties and could be overcome promptly.
The impact of Indo-US Major Defence Partner also has to be factored in the India’s declared foreign policy of multi-alignment. There are serious concerns being raised by legacy strategic partner Russia and “most important partnership of the 21st Century,” with China over the proximity of India with the United States. Both these countries have enhanced engagement with Pakistan, India’s South Asian rival. Even as Russian President Putin was in Goa for the BRICS Summit in October, Russian and Pakistan troops were conducting the first joint exercise in Pakistan. This signal may or may not be good enough for South Block or Jawahar Bhawan that houses India’s Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi.
China, on the other hand, has also blocked Indian entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group in tandem with the non-proliferation group in the body as well as the naming of Masood Azhar head of the Jaish e Mohammad which was behind the Pathankot as well as Nagrota terror attacks this year. India believes that China is not cognisant of its strategic concerns, reciprocally, Beijing may also claim that growing Indo-US defence engagement works against it. With Trump’s telephone call to the President of Taiwan-United States-China relations are also likely to remain in a trough.
Multialignment presages cooperation through engagement or balance of power, it appears that for the present the Major Defence Partner may become a mill around India’s neck until concerns of China and Russia are addressed by New Delhi.
India Major Defence Partner of United States Wither Multi-Alignment
The seventh meeting between U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and India’s Defence Minister Shri Manohar Parrikar on 8 December saw firming up of the framework for “major defence partner,” marking a new partnership between the two countries. This was the mandate given to the defence ministers in the joint statement issued after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held talks with U.S. President Barack Obama in June 2016
The Joint Statement states “Noting that the U.S.-India defence relationship can be an anchor of stability, and given the increasingly strengthened cooperation in defence, the United States at this moment recognises India as a Major Defense Partner. As such: (1) The United States will continue to work toward facilitating technology sharing with India to a level commensurate with that of its closest allies and partners. The leaders reached an understanding under which India would receive license-free access to a wide range of dual-use technologies in conjunction with steps that India has committed to take to advance its export control objectives. (2) In support of India's Make In India initiative, and to support the development of robust defense industries and their integration into the global supply chain, the United States will continue to facilitate the export of goods and technologies, consistent with U.S. law, for projects, programs and joint ventures in support of official U.S.-India defense cooperation”.
The partnership is marked as, “defence,” and not strategic or military thus indicating the focus is likely to be on defence technology, co-development and co-production. This is in line with the trend in the relationship with two proposals under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), “the Next Generation Protective Ensembles and Mobile Hybrid Power Sources – worth roughly $2 million”.
http://www.security-risks.com/security-trends-south-asia/india-defence/carter-indian-counterpart-champion-growing-trade-technology-security-ties-6959.html
There has been a setback of sorts in the interim as the US Senate failed to pass a resolution moved by “Republican Senator John McCain had moved an amendment to the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA-17) to recognise India as a global strategic and defence partner. NDAA was passed by the Senate with an overwhelming bipartisan vote of 85-13. But some of the key amendments including the (SA 4618) even though they had bipartisan support could not be passed by the Senate.”
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-downplays-us-senate-rejecting-bill-on-special-status/1/693241.html
As the tenure of US President Barack Obama ends this year and Carter will also demit office as Lt Gen John Mattis has been nominated as the candidate for Secretary of Defence by Presidential elect Donald Trump, it was important that the framework for Major Defence Partner was established. Ashton Carter has been one of the strongest proponents of closer defence relations with India and thus for him it will be mission accomplished.
Despite the bipartisan support to closer defence cooperation with India, there are concerns of the trajectory under the Trump Administration. With the President-elect Donald Trump’s focus on jobs in the United States – Made in the USA, India’s IT sector which is a major beneficiary of contracts in the US may suffer even as business has receded with some companies caught up in allegations of corruption. Plans to shift entire production lines by Boeing or Lockheed Martin are one of the next major steps in defence co-production which may go against the Made in USA mandate. Thus a potential clash between Made in USA and Made in India may be in the offing. These are of course uncertainties and could be overcome promptly.
What approach the Trump administration adopts towards Pakistan is also not clear. Pakistan media had portrayed that the first conversation between President elect Trump and Mr Nawaz Sharif Prime Minister of Pakistan was positive going beyond expectations, claims which are being questioned. United States influence on Pakistan is one of the determining factors in Indo US engagement,
The impact of Indo-US Major Defence Partner also has to be factored in the India’s declared foreign policy of multi-alignment. There are serious concerns being raised by legacy strategic partner Russia and “most important partnership of the 21st Century,” with China over the proximity of India with the United States. Both these countries have enhanced engagement with Pakistan, India’s South Asian rival. Even as Russian President Putin was in Goa for the BRICS Summit in October, Russian and Pakistan troops were conducting the first joint exercise in Pakistan. This signal may or may not be good enough for South Block or Jawahar Bhawan that houses India’s Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi.
China, on the other hand, has also blocked Indian entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group in tandem with the non-proliferation group in the body as well as the naming of Masood Azhar head of the Jaish e Mohammad which was behind the Pathankot as well as Nagrota terror attacks this year. India believes that China is not cognisant of its strategic concerns, reciprocally, Beijing may also claim that growing Indo-US defence engagement works against it. With Trump’s telephone call to the President of Taiwan-United States-China relations are also likely to remain in a trough.
Multialignment presages cooperation through engagement or balance of power, it appears that for the present the Major Defence Partner may become a mill around India’s neck until concerns of China and Russia are addressed by New Delhi.
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