Nov 19, 2016
Pakistan Army Chief – Change of Guard No Relief for India
As General Raheel Sharif is due to demit office on 29 November he is doing the rounds of the formations and the usual spree of inaugurations which is an inevitable part of the obligations of service lie in any country. Raheel Sharif is also burying the ghost of the Indian surgical strikes and large number of fatalities suffered by the Pakistan Army in cross border firing in October – November. Declaration of death of 11 Indian soldiers seems to be a tit for tat for the seven that were acknowledged by the Pakistan Army recently. The surgical strikes of course continue to be denied officially. Never the less the stage is set for General Raheel to shed his uniform, an extension does not seem likely at least in the near future.
The decision of selection of the next army chief has been a major dilemma for Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the past and remains so at present as well. Nawaz has the distinction of having selected five of the last nine chiefs as a three time Prime Minister of the country. Sharif has also been unlucky having personally selected Pervez Musharraf who went on to depose him in a coup in 1999.
Musharraf also ordered a highly risky gamble of intrusion in Jammu and Kashmir in Kargil the same year which had brought much egg on the face of Sharif internationally. Nawaz Sharif’s most recent choice namesake though no relation General Raheel Sharif has also not been favourably disposed towards the Prime Minister. He has pursued his own course, has been more visible than Nawaz and after the crucial Panama Papers expose made a statement calling for all those involved in corruption to face public scrutiny.
Relations between the Prime Minister’s Office and the GHQ have thus not been very favourable. Thus Nawaz Sharif remains extremely wary and will depend on a number of factors – smooth civil military relations, commitment to professionalism, someone unlikely to stage a coup and management of regional relations particularly with India. Four generals who are in the short list, though it is not clear whether they figure in the names forwarded by the Pakistan Army GHQ to the Prime Minister are as follows:-
Lt Gen Zubair Hayat Chief of General Staff
Lt Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed Commander II Corps Multan
Lt Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday Commander XXXI Corps Bhawalpur
Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa Inspector General Training & Evaluation
Lt General Zubair Mahmood Hayat and Lt General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed are a head above the other two in terms of professional exposures. Hayat headed the Strategic Planning Division (SPD) and is now Chief of General Staff (CGS) a key appointment which he took over from Nadeem Ahmed. Purely on professional merit the question will be who will be nominated as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and who will taken on the mantle of the Army Chief as both are due for turnover in November.
On the other hand professional considerations alone seldom decide the Army Chief’s appointment. Lt Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday has favourable political affiliations while Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has extensive experience in handling Jammu and Kashmir having served as the GOC of 10 Corps. Yet they do not have the professional pedigree of Hayat or Ahmed. Lt General Mazhar Jamil who heads the SPD at present is also in the run but is said to be close to former Pakistan Army chief General Kayani and may not get the green signal from the present Army Chief.
India may not find succour in the new Chief as the key decision making body in the Pakistan Army is the collegiate of Corps Commanders – an unelected parliament of sorts where majority decision is what decides on the course. The Army Chief is the front face of this body of senior generals of the Pak Army. How much he capitalises on this and portrays his own personality determines the status of the Army Chief. General Raheel Sharif has been able to capitalise on the decision to undertake Operation Zarb E Azb which has considerably reduced terrorist violence within Pakistan while using the Inter Services Public Relations effectively through the Twitter handle to portray himself as a national icon.
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