The fast changing poll results are creating more confusion, rather than providing a credible forecast about the outcome of US presidential elections being held on November 8.
Around the world Muslims and particularly Pakistanis are anxiously awaiting the official announcement. I wrote on Wednesday exploring the possible implication of the outcome on Pak-US relationship. The bottom line was that whoever wins the election the ‘status quo’ will remain, meaning the relationship will become good if Pakistan’s services are needed, or bad if the US focus shifts to other regions.
Some of my readers asked a funny question, who will win the election? I wondered if they believe I have a crystal ball or I am a fortune teller. Despite knowing my inadequacies, I sat down to explore the probability. Born in a third world country, having witnessed domestic, South Asia and MENA geopolitics for nearly half a century I have also started believing in conspiracy theories. Based on my observations, I tend to say that Hillary Clinton could be the next US president.
The reasons are following:
The US ruling junta has created a history by electing a black and half Muslim President. This time they will create another history by electing a woman as US president.
It is often said that in third world elections are engineered. I tend to say that the elections are also engineered in the US and the active players are part of electoral system. This time the female members of the system will play a decisive role. I say this because often the female members have not played a key role, with some reports saying they have in the past preferred to abstain from casting their vote.
A closer look at the outcome also indicates that the elected president should be from the Republican Party. However, if the ruling elite are adamant at making Hillary the next president, they will not hesitate in violating this norm. If they want to continue proxy wars, maintain US hegemony in South Asia and MENA and even South China Sea they have to elect Hillary who is known as the ‘queen of status quo’.
Shabbir H. Kazmi is an economic analyst from Pakistan. He has been writing for local and foreign publications for about quarter of a century. He maintains the blog ‘Geo Politics in South Asia and MENA’. He can be contacted at shkazmipk@gmail.com
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