300Approximate number of U.S. special operations troops in Syria
20,000-31,500Estimated size of Islamic State fighters in Syria
4,808,229Estimated number of registered Syrian refugees
Syrian Army Advances on Rebel-Held Aleppo
The Syrian army claimed it took over a district on the southwestern outskirts of Aleppo that runs along the regime-controlled corridor into the city. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights called the government's capture of the district the most significant regime advance since September (Al Jazeera). NOVEMBER 7, 2016
Kurdish-Led Forces Clash With ISIS Outside Raqqa
U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led forces clashed with fighters from the self-proclaimed Islamic State in the suburbs of Raqqa. This comes after the Arab-Kurdish coalition, known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), announced the beginning of an operation backed by U.S. air strikes to retake the Islamic State’s de facto capital (Associated Press). NOVEMBER 4, 2016
Russia Starts ‘Last’ Humanitarian Pause
The Russian and Syrian governments began what they said will be their last pause in the bombardment of eastern Aleppo to allow opposition fighters and civilians to evacuate the city. The rebels have rejected the offer and have been continuing a counter-offensive aimed at breaking the siege (BBC). NOVEMBER 2, 2016
Syria’s Assad Plans to Stay in Office
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said he planned to stay in his role as President until his term expires in 2021 in a rare audience with Western journalists and analysts (New York Times). NOVEMBER 1, 2016
Peace Talks Postponed Indefinitely, Says Russia
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the failure of Western governments to rein in Islamist rebels in Syria had indefinitely postponed the resumption of peace talks (Reuters). OCTOBER 31, 2016
Syrian Rebels Launch Major Counteroffensive in Aleppo
A coalition of Syrian rebel groups said it had begun a major counteroffensive to break the siege of Aleppo by government and Russian forces (New York Times). OCTOBER 27, 2016
UNICEF Chief Decries Attack on Syrian School
An air strike on a school that reportedly killed twenty-two children and six teachers in Syria’s rebel-held northern Idlib province may have been the deadliest attack on a school in the war, according to UNICEF (AP). OCTOBER 25, 2016
Russia Rules Out New Ceasefire in Aleppo
Russia is not considering a new ceasefire agreement in Aleppo after Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov announced that “the question of renewing the humanitarian pause is not relevant now” (Al Jazeera). OCTOBER 24, 2016
UN Blames Syrian Forces for Third Chemical Attack
A confidential report to the UN Security Council blames Syrian government forces for a toxic gas attack in the village of Qmenas in Idlib province on March 16, 2015 (Al Jazeera). OCTOBER 21, 2016
Russia Extends Aleppo Ceasefire by 24 Hours
Russia says it will extend by 24 hours its "humanitarian pause" in air strikes on rebel-held eastern Aleppo, taking the break up until October 21st. Russian and Syrian government forces suspended air strikes to open up eight exit corridors from the east of the city to allow residents to leave the area. Rebel fighters have been given a chance to leave via two corridors, provided they leave behind their weapons (BBC).
OCTOBER 20, 2016
Russia to Broadcast Aleppo "Humanitarian Pause”
Russia announced it would broadcast live scenes of people evacuating Aleppo during a scheduled pause in bombing. Rebels have vowed not to leave the city, which is the last major urban center under partial opposition control (Al Jazeera). OCTOBER 18, 2016
Russia Announces Eight-Hour Pause in Aleppo Bombing
Russia’s Defense Ministry announced that Russian and Syrian forces will halt their bombardment of Aleppo for eight hours on October 20 to allow civilians and rebels to flee the city (New York Times). OCTOBER 17, 2016
U.S., UK Considering New Sanctions on Syria and Russia over Aleppo Offensive
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson are considering new sanctions to pressure the Syrian and Russian governments to halt their offensive on rebel-held parts of Aleppo (AP). OCTOBER 12, 2016
Airstrikes in Aleppo and Shelling in South Kill Twenty
At least fourteen people died in airstrikes on rebel-held parts of Aleppo, while the shelling of a government-held neighborhood in the south hit a school and killed at least six, including children (AP). OCTOBER 7, 2016
UN Envoy Makes Appeal for Aleppo
The UN's Syria envoy on Thursday made an impassioned appeal to save eastern Aleppo, warning the city faced total destruction and urging Jabhat Fateh al-Sham fighters to leave the rebel-held east so civilians can get aid. "If you decide to leave with dignity ... I am personally ready to physically accompany you," the UN envoy pledged (Al Jazeera). OCTOBER 6, 2016
Bomb on Syria’s Border With Turkey Kills 29
A bomb killed at least twenty-nine people at a rebel-controlled border crossing in Idlib province, activists said (BBC). Many of the victims were reported to be from a rebel faction participating in a Turkey-led assault on militants from the self-proclaimed Islamic State and Kurdish fighters. OCTOBER 5, 2016
UN Says Aid Convoy Attack was Air Strike
Analysis of satellite imagery taken after a deadly attack on an aid convoy in northern Syria last month shows that it was an air strike, a UN expert says. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has established an internal board of inquiry to investigate the attack (BBC). OCTOBER 3, 2016
United States and Russia Suspend Cease-Fire Talks
Syrian rebel forces said that an assault by pro-government forces continued in rebel-held neighborhoods in eastern Aleppo after the United States announced it was suspending its participation in bilateral channels with Russia to negotiate a cease-fire (Al Jazeera). Russia also announced it was suspending an agreement with the United States for the disposal of weapons-grade plutonium (BBC). OCTOBER 3, 2016
Suicide Bombing Rocks Government-held Hama
A suicide bomber has detonated an explosive vest in the Syrian government-held city of Hama wounding several people, state television said. Hama province is of strategic importance to President Bashar al-Assad, as it separates opposition forces in rebel-controlled Idlib from Damascus and the government-controlled coast (Al Jazeera). SEPTEMBER 30, 2016
Russia Sending More Warplanes to Syria in Escalation of Air Strikes
Russia is sending more warplanes to Syria to further ramp up its campaign of air strikes as Moscow defied global censure. Fighting intensified a week into a new Russian-backed government offensive to capture all of Syria's largest city and crush the last remaining urban stronghold of the rebellion (Reuters). SEPTEMBER 29, 2016
United States Threatens to End Syria Talks With Russia
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry threatened to end talks with Russia on the war in Syria over the continued bombing of Aleppo by Syrian forces and their Russian allies (NYT). Rights groups called the bombing of two of Aleppo’s largest hospitals an intentional targeting of civilian infrastructure (AFP). SEPTEMBER 28, 2016
Syrian Troops Launch Aleppo Ground Offensive
After a week of airstrikes, Syrian troops launched ground attacks on rebel-held areas in Aleppo, including one on a civilian hospital (Guardian). SEPTEMBER 26, 2016
U.S. Charges Syrian, Russian Brutality in Aleppo
Dozens of air strikes continued to hit the Syrian city of Aleppo overnight as the United States claimed that Syrian and Russian forces had launched 150 airstrikes over seventy-two hours that killed 213 people (Reuters). SEPTEMBER 22, 2016
UN Resumes Aid Deliveries to Aleppo
The United Nations is set to resume its aid deliveries to the Aleppo region following an attack on a convoy that killed twenty people earlier this week (Al Jazeera). SEPTEMBER 20, 2016
UN Suspends Syria Aid Convoys After Air Strikes
The United Nations suspended all aid convoys to Syria after an air strike outside of Aleppo killed twenty civilians, including a local Red Crescent official, and destroyed eighteen trucks, according to aid officials (BBC).
Recent Developments
Foreign involvement in the Syrian civil war has significantly increased since the conflict began over five years ago. In August 2016, Turkey conducted an offensive with international coalition forces to retake the border town of Jarabulus from the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Russia began its military intervention in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in September 2015.
In August 2016, U.S.-backed rebels, with the support of coalition air strikes, liberated the strategic north Syrian city of Manbij from the Islamic State. The rebel victory dealt a major blow to the group, effectively cutting off smuggling routes to the north and supply routes between Aleppo and Raqqa (headquarters of the Islamic State). Syrian government forces have been making advances in the fight against the Islamic State with notable victories like the seizure of Palmyra, an ancient Syrian city that had been occupied by the group for nearly a year.
Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, has been besieged for more than four years as Syrian government forces and rebels fight for control. The fighting has increased recently, with the death toll in the month of August 2016 alone standing at around 448 (including 100 children) as of August 28.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met in August 2016 to discuss renewing the cessation of hostilities that was reached in February 2016. Secretary Kerry had previously met with all major external participants in the conflict for the first time in October 2015 to try to secure a nationwide cease-fire and to request that the United Nations oversee a transition of power.
An agreement between the United States and Russia was reached in September 2016, and a cease-fire was held for one week. The UN also temporarily suspended aid convoys in Syria following an air strike that killed approximately twenty civilians and destroyed eighteen trucks, just hours after the cessation of hostilities ended.
Background
What began as protests against President Assad’s regime in 2011 quickly escalated into a full-scale war between the Syrian government—backed by Russia and Iran—and antigovernment rebels groups. This has led to spillover into neighboring states and intervention by outside parties, particularly in response to the expansion of the Islamic State from Iraq into Syria.
Following a series of coordinated Islamic State terrorist attacks in Paris on November 13, 2015, France expanded its air strikes in Syria and the United Kingdom launched its own air campaign to target the Islamic State. In October 2015, the Obama administration authorized the deployment of fifty U.S. Special Operations ground forces to join Kurdish forces in the fight against the Islamic State and committed an additional 250 forces in April 2016.
Ongoing instability has enabled the expansion of powerful radical elements. The Islamic State has captured extensive territory in Syria, perpetrated shocking violence against Shia, Christians, other religious minorities, and fellow Sunnis, and beheaded captives from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and other countries. The Islamic State has recruited as many as 30,000 foreign fighters to join the battle in Syria.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and France, with the support of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab partners, have conducted over fourteen thousand air strikes against Islamic State targets. After a controversial U.S. train-and-equip program was shut down in September 2015—having successfully trained less than one hundred fighters, some of whom had defected to al-Qaeda—the Obama administration authorized the deployment of fifty U.S. Special Operations ground forces to support Kurdish forces fight the Islamic State. Meanwhile, at the request of the Syrian government in September 2015, Russia began launching air strikes against what it claimed were Islamic State targets. However, it has also targeted other groups opposed to Assad, ranging from moderate rebel groups to the al-Qaeda affiliated Ahrar al-Sham and al-Nusra Front (now renamed Jabhat Fatah al-Sham and nominally unaffiliated with al-Qaeda).
Efforts to reach a diplomatic resolution have been unsuccessful. Geneva peace talks on Syria—a UN-backed conference for facilitating a political transition led by UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura—have thus far not been successful in coming up with a political solution, as opposition groups and Syrian regime officials struggle to find mutually acceptable terms for resolving the conflict. In October 2015, the United States, Russia, and European countries invited Iran to participate in negotiations, renewing hopes of reaching an outcome. Although the Obama administration expressed willingness to work with Russia and Iran, it has ruled out the possibility of a return to status quo under Assad.
Concerns
Since the start of the war, more than 400,000 people have been killed, 4.8 million have fled the country, and 6.5 million have been internally displaced. Many refugees have fled to Jordan and Lebanon, straining already weak infrastructure and limited resources. More than 2.7 million Syrians have fled to Turkey, and many attempted to seek refuge in Europe along with other migrants and refugees.
Meanwhile, external military intervention—including arms and military equipment, training, air strikes, and even troops—in support of proxies in Syria threatens to prolong a conflict already in its sixth year. While the Obama administration has ruled out the possibility of using U.S. air strikes to target Assad, the introduction of Russian air power and U.S. special operations forces presents the threat of further U.S.-Russia military escalation and confrontation. Additionally, ongoing violence could allow terrorist groups already active in Syria, such as the Islamic State, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, and Hezbollah, to launch attacks against U.S. personnel in the country.
A Visual Exploration of the Conflict
Children attend a class in a school in southern countryside of Idlib, Syria, on September 20, 2015. The text near the drawing of the tank reads: "Whoever kills his people is a traitor." (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
A rebel fighter of al-Badiya brigade in Jaysh al-Islam uses his mobile phone near the frontline of Masasna checkpoint in the northern countryside of Hama on March 4, 2015. (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
A general view shows the damage at the old souk of the old city of Homs on June 3, 2015. (Omar Sanadiki/Reuters)
A man reacts at a site hit by what activists say was a barrel bomb dropped by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo's al-Fardous district on April 29, 2015. (Hosam Katan/Reuters)
Children attend a class in a school in southern countryside of Idlib, Syria, on September 20, 2015. The text near the drawing of the tank reads: "Whoever kills his people is a traitor." (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
A rebel fighter of al-Badiya brigade in Jaysh al-Islam uses his mobile phone near the frontline of Masasna checkpoint in the northern countryside of Hama on March 4, 2015. (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)
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