By Bharat Lather
13 Oct , 2016
In Pakistan, the standard narrative of Islamabad-Moscow relations begins a purportedly fateful choice said to have been made in 1949. That year, Pakistan’s first Prime Minister, Liaquat Ali Khan, was invited by Moscow for a state visit, which he promptly accepted. However, upon receiving an invitation from Washington, Liaquat cancelled the Moscow visit, going to Washington instead, beginning what would become an on-again, off-again relationship between Pakistan and the United States.
Moscow, realizing that its longtime partner (India) is now seeing other people, has lifted an arms embargo on Islamabad, which is keen on modernizing its military…
As the U.S.-India embrace tightens, former Cold War foes Pakistan and Russia are bolstering ties with one another. Pakistan was an early Cold War partner of the United States, ultimately helping to evict the Soviets from Afghanistan in 1989. While India proclaimed a policy of non-alignment, it was firmly allied with the Soviet Union, which served as its chief defense supplier for decades. Those strong ties continued following the end of the Cold War into recent years. While India’s defense arsenal remains overwhelmingly Russian in origin, over the past four years, Washington is on the verge of supplanting Moscow to become New Delhi’s top defense supplier. Moscow, realizing that its longtime partner is now seeing other people, has lifted an arms embargo on Islamabad, which is keen on modernizing its military and reducing its dependence on Washington.
Role of the former Soviet Union (Presently Russia) in the Indo-Pak War of 1971
Before 1971, Bangladesh used to be a part of Pakistan as East Pakistan. According to Najam Sethi, a well respected and honoured journalist from Pakistan, East Pakistan always complained that they received less development funds and less attention from the West Pakistan (Punjabi) dominating government. Bengalis in East Pakistan also resisted the adoption of Urdu as the state language. The revenue from export, whether it was from the Cotton of West Pakistan or Jute of East Pakistan, was handled mainly by West Pakistan. Lastly, in an election conducted just some months before the war, the victory was gained by the East Pakistani leader and still he was not given the power, thus fueling the movement in East Pakistan.
It was in the year 1971 when the two South Asian rivals declared war on each other, causing a great loss to the lives, property and territory in case of Pakistan. In August 1971, as civil war worsened between West and East Pakistan, which were separated by over a thousand miles of Indian Territory, Moscow and New Delhi signed the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, which stated that an attack on one treaty member would be seen by the other as an attack on itself. Months later, India, which had been covertly supporting secessionists in East Pakistan, formally stepped in, defeating West Pakistan in war and helping create the new country of Bangladesh. The Soviet Union and United States supported opposite sides during the 1971 war.
Even after the end of the Cold War, Pakistan was an important U.S. ally. As a consequence, the defense relationship between Russia and Pakistan was very minimal.
When the War broke out in 1971 between India and Pakistan, the Soviets, though isolated, vetoed every effort by the U.S. – China axis to stop India from liberating East Pakistan (Presently Bangladesh). During the War, the Soviets deployed mechanized forces and air-power on their borders with China and warned China of serious consequences if it militarily intervened. A Russian nuclear submarine followed the USS Enterprise, as it crossed the Straits of Malacca. The war ended with the surrender of Pakistani army as they missed American help due to a quick response from Soviets/Russians who blocked both America and China from preventing India to advance. With this, a new country named Bangladesh was formed, which was recognized by the whole world and by Pakistan in the following year with Shimla Agreement.
Soviet-Afghan War
Approximately 14,000 Soviet soldiers were killed and more than 35,000 were wounded in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. Many of these causalities were the consequence of mujahideen forces that received significant support from Pakistan and the United States. Even after the end of the Cold War, Pakistan was an important U.S. ally. As a consequence, the defense relationship between Russia and Pakistan was very minimal.
Why the year 2011 was significant for U.S.-Pak relations?
Pakistan decided to broaden its foreign policy options after its relations with the U.S. deteriorated in 2011. It began with the killing of two Pakistanis by a CIA security officer on a Lahore street. Months later, U.S. special operations forces launched a covert raid deep into Pakistan territory to kill Osama bin Laden. In the following months, U.S. officials embittered by the presence of bin Laden in Pakistan, engaged in a media war against Islamabad, leaking damaging claims to The Atlantic, New York Times and other publications about Pakistan’s human rights record, support for militants and nuclear weapons program. The year ended with a U.S. attack on a Pakistani base (Salala) that killed two dozen Pakistani soldiers, forcing Islamabad to shut down the Pakistan-based NATO supply route into Afghanistan.
In April, 2016, it was reported that the PAF’s JF-17s have logged more than 19,000 operational fight hours since the fighter’s induction into active service in 2011.
Russia-Pakistan defense cooperation agreement
In November, 2014, Islamabad and Moscow signed a defense cooperation agreement, which resulted in raising an arms embargo from Pakistan and included a commitment to sell latest Mi-35 combat helicopters. Previously, Pakistan imported RD-93 jet engines for its JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft from Russia via China, but after signing the defense agreement, Pakistan had already secured Russia’s agreement to directly supply the RD-93 jets engines for its JF-17’s. In April, 2016, it was reported that the PAF’s JF-17s have logged more than 19,000 operational fight hours since the fighter’s induction into active service in 2011. There hasn’t been any problem with Russian imported engines for JF-17s providing them with an extraordinary serviceability status. There are 65 JF-17s in the PAF (allocated to three operational fighter squadrons and a training unit belonging to Combat Commanders School). Overall, Pakistan is willing to use Russian RD-93 engines for its planned 150 (65 delivered) JF-17 jets.
Russia-Pakistan Mi-35 combat helicopter deal
The sale of an initial four Mi-35 helicopters was finalized in August, 2015 and could be expanded to 20 in the coming years. Pakistan and Russia went on to sign a landmark defense deal for the purchase of Mi-35M (NATO reporting name Hind-E) helicopters — a versatile helicopter gunship with troop carrying capabilities. The Mi-35M is a comprehensive upgrade of the Mi-24V, and brings to the battlefield a whole range of capabilities; The helicopter can carry a wide range of weaponry which includes anti-tank guided missiles, unguided rocket pods, short range air to air missiles, gun pods and free fall bombs. Avionics have also received a major update with the new export model of the Hind. The cockpit is now night vision capable, with new and improved Multi Functional Displays (MFD). The sensor package has received a major upgrade too, giving the helicopter the ability to engage in combat operations at any time of the day, in all weather conditions. The turboshaft engines have been improved and are now more powerful, making the Mi-35 perfectly suitable for operations in FATA tribal areas and other high altitude areas of operation.
As the Mi-35 was built to destroy enemy armoured vehicles and anything else that was unfortunate enough to come in its way, it is armed with Ataka anti-tank guided missiles. The Ataka has a range of up to 8 kilometers, hence giving it the perfect ability to reach out and touch a ‘friend’. It can also carry 80 80mm rockets or 20 122mm rockets. The Hind-E also has a twin-barrelled 23mm gun, and one has to be extremely unlucky to be on the receiving end of the gun. Its commonality with the Mi-17, which the Pakistan Army operates in numbers, makes it relatively easy and affordable to maintain and operate as well.
…(Pakistan) can’t arrange even $699.4 million from its national funds for procuring 8 F-16s Block 52 from the U.S.; how can they even think of procuring Su-35 jets from Russia which are far more expensive than F-16s.
Recently, Pakistan’s new ambassador to Russia, Qazi Khalilullah Khalilullah noted that Russia will be supplying Pakistan with Mi-35 assault helicopters, which Pakistan had ordered in August of last year. It is believed that the Pakistan Army may require up to 20 Mi-35s in total.
Can a cash-strapped country like Pakistan afford to buy Su-35 fighters?
There has been a visible uptick of attention on the question of Pakistan’s defense ties with Russia, and the Sukhoi Su-35 is at the epicenter of it. A fighter aircraft sale to Pakistan – especially of the Su-35 – would be unprecedented and significant. However, in light of Moscow’s strong and longstanding defense ties with New Delhi, the notion that it would approve of a Su-35 sale to Pakistan – especially at this time – is difficult to envision.
Moreover, one can quite easily figure out about the economic condition of Pakistan which continues to be in a very bad shape; a country which can’t arrange even $699.4 million from its national funds for procuring 8 F-16s Block 52 from the U.S.; how can they even think of procuring Su-35 jets from Russia which are far more expensive than F-16s. At the same time, Russia is neither USA nor China which would provide Pakistan with subsidized fighter jets or long term loans in order to fulfill its defense aspirations because Russia itself needs hard currency to sustain its economy. Furthermore, it is important for Pakistan to understand that it is neither China nor India which can afford expensive Russian weapons that are highly dangerous in nature. Interestingly, this is not the first time Moscow and Islamabad had gotten on relatively close grounds on fighter aircraft. In the 1990s, the PAF had expressed interest in the Sukhoi Su-27 and Mikoyan MiG-29. Despite the buzz, no fighter sale was secured.
With Pakistan’s fiscal position precarious, the sight of used F-16s may be more commonplace in the PAF in the coming years. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s economy is constantly mortgaged to the IMF (International Monetary Fund). Under the three-year bailout programme, Pakistan has received $6.2 billion in order to stabilize its economy.
Without the US-made F-16s, Pakistan will have to turn either to Russia for its Sukhoi Su-35 or to China for its J-31 stealth fighter (which is still under development) and Chengdu J-10 to modernize its jets fleet with better aircraft…
U.S. – Pak relations were further soured when US law makers blocked funds for the sale of 8 F-16s to Pakistan. In the aftermath of the U.S. Congress refusing to release Foreign Military Financing (FMF) support for a proposed sale of eight F-16C/D Block-52+, Pakistan’s Defence Secretary Lt. General (R) Muhammad Alam Khattak noted that France and Russia were being examined as alternative sources for new fighter aircraft. However, the PAF had only confirmed its plans to continue developing the JF-17 Thunder. Besides this, used or surplus sixteen F-16s from various sources, such as Jordan, may be procured to help fill capability gaps in the short-term.
Talking about Pakistan’s plan to procure sixteen F-16 Block 30 (slightly inferior to block 50/52/MLUs), the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has the infrastructure to readily embrace additional F-16s, thus additional maintenance and training costs would be minimal; making it quite a feasible deal for an economically weak country like Pakistan. Moreover, it is also a battle-proven platform which has again and again proved its mettle by conducting air campaigns over the former Yugoslavia (1999), Afghanistan (2001), Iraq (2003), Iraq and Syria against ISIS (since, 2014 and still underway).
On the other hand, The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) may be in the process of upgrading its 13 F-16A/B Block-15ADF (short for Air Defence Fighter), which were acquired second-hand from Jordan in 2014. Although capable of launching the AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), the F-16 ADFs were behind the PAF’s other F-16A/Bs – these had gone through the Mid-Life Update (MLU), which equipped them with the same radar and avionics as the PAF’s newer F-16C/D Block-52+. Without the US-made F-16s, and in general with reduced political and financial cover from Washington, Pakistan will have to turn either to Russia for its Sukhoi Su-35 or to China for its J-31 stealth fighter (which is still under development) and Chengdu J-10 to modernize its jets fleet with better aircraft; unless logistical and financial hurdles push the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) to veer to fighters of inferior caliber, like it already did with the procurement of used F-16s from Jordan in the past.
Joint Military Exercise
A mechanized infantry unit of the Russian military arrived in Pakistan on 23rd September, 2016 to participate in the first ever joint military drills dubbed Friendship-2016, reflecting growing military ties between the two former Cold War rivals. About 200 troops from the two countries took a part in over the two-week long military drills (24 Sept-10 Oct, 2016). According to Russia Today (RT), the exercise is taking place in mountainous terrain, so as to enable both sides to readily exchange and build capacity in their respective counterinsurgency (COIN) efforts. Another major highlight of Friendship 2016 was that for the very first time Pakistan’s JF-17 thunders were used in counter-insurgency exercise; the JF-17’s close air support (CAS) coverage came in a counterinsurgency (COIN)-related setting involving a series of relevant combat scenarios; while AH-1F/S Cobra attack helicopters were also used to provide additional air support.
Russia’s rapprochement with Pakistan will surely annoy India, for it does not fall in line with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new policy aimed at isolating Pakistan globally.
Conclusion
When the Russian troops in Rawalpindi on 23rd September, 2016 for the first-ever military exercise between the two Cold War era foes, it was clear that the seismic event would upset geo-strategic balance in the region and beyond — forever. This is a positive development and a definite breakthrough in the Pakistan-Russia relations that have moved beyond the Cold War adversarial ties to a blossoming bilateral bond, based on the absence of any conflict of interests, now developing into a military relationship as well. In a loosening great power universe, the realignment has brought Pakistan, China and Russia closer to each other. This is a function largely of Russia’s worsening ties with the US. In Afghanistan, Russia believes ISIS is the real threat, not the Taliban, something Pakistan is at pains to push.
The world has become more promiscuous as memories of Cold War recede. Israel with whom the Indian right wing holds so dear to heart, does business with China, despite receiving billions from the U.S.; nor is it averse in holding air-force exercises with Pakistan and the U.S. Russia’s attempt to engage Pakistan is not just a reaction to New Delhi’s much-discussed growing closeness with the United States, but, for Russia, it’s an attempt to break out of its growing economic and diplomatic isolation, which surged in the form of Western sanctions aimed at isolating the Russian economy after it annexed Crimea.
Moreover, last year, Russia and Pakistan signed an agreement for the construction of a 1,100 kilometer gas pipeline from Lahore to Karachi. In the short term, Russia’s rapprochement with Pakistan will surely annoy India, for it does not fall in line with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s new policy aimed at isolating Pakistan globally. But without a doubt, the changing phase of Russia-Pakistan relations still does not pose any real challenge to New Delhi’s time-tested strategic partnership with Moscow. Meanwhile, Moscow has asked Islamabad to act against its homegrown terrorism; while on the other hand Russia has also welcomed India’s surgical strikes in POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) that killed 40-50 terrorists and destroyed 8 launching pads.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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