September 28, 2016
Beijing’s interest continues to rise in positioning Pakistan as a counterweight to India, eventually bringing the scenario of a two-front war vis-à-vis India.
New Delhi has, therefore, been stepping up modernisation of its armed forces in order to counter the assertive posture of the Chinese.
Fifty-four years ago, on 20 October 1962, with the world’s terrified gaze fixed firmly on the United States-Soviet nuclear standoff in Cuba, China attacked India. Provoked by a territorial dispute and tensions over Tibet, the war was brief, and China emerged victorious. Beijing declared a unilateral ceasefire on 21 November that year, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) withdrew to its pre-war positions.
However, the war still casts a long shadow over Sino-Indian relations. While the conflict is long since over, the relations are still a mess. Thus, to this day, China continues to claim the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh while New Delhi lays claim to the Chinese-controlled Aksai Chin territory.
India still sees China as a nationalist, aggressive power which seeks to dominate Asia and one that might once again strike unexpectedly, just as it did in 1962. Naturally, China’s recent assertiveness on the border issue and the PLA’s huge military build-up bolster such fears.
Deploying Su-30 MKIs along the LAC to counter Chinese aggression
The Indian Air Force (IAF) is in the middle of shifting its focus from being a purely Pakistan-centric force to one that will be capable of simultaneously meeting the twin threats posed by an insecure Pakistan and an increasingly belligerent China.
In fact, there has been more to the Indian build-up than just hardware acquisition, as India undertakes a doctrinal shift in all three forces. The IAF, for example, is currently in the middle of tweaking its ORBAT (Order of Battle). This shift has involved reviving and expanding air bases close to the border with China, including placing a squadron each of Sukhoi Su-30 MKIs – currently India’s most advanced fighter jets – at two hitherto small bases at Tezpur in north-east India and Bareilly in the north.
India’s north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh has also got its first fighter airbase from where fighter aircraft Su-30 MKI’s operations can be sustained. The landing ground at Passighat is described as an advanced landing ground (ALG), which now has a fully paved runway – inaugurated on 19 August 2016. It is about 100km from the Chinese border in the eastern sector.
This is India’s fifth ALG in Arunachal to be upgraded, paved and network-connected with the IAF’s existing data network. So far, ALGs at Ziro, Along, Mechuka and Walong have been reactivated. The reactivation includes facilities that will match other IAF bases. After opening Passighat, the ALGs at Tuting and Tawang shall follow. These airfields dot various folds of the Himalayas in Arunachal and cover an east-west axis, bringing the IAF and Army’s rapid deployment capabilities much closer to the McMahon Line – the India-China boundary in this part of the country. Planes such as Super Hercules C-130J, Globemaster C-17 and AN-32 can land there, allowing the rapid movement of troops, artillery guns, armoured vehicles and tanks. India also plans to deploy at least a squadron of Sukhois at Nyoma. It is an airstrip – about 25km from the Chinese border in the high-altitude desert of Ladakh.
On the other side of the McMahon Line, apart from building an incredible border infrastructure (airports/airbases, airstrips and road and rail network), the threat of Chinese SAM (Surface-to-Air Missile) systems continues to loom over the IAF; the presence of Chinese long-range SAMs, like Hongqi-9 (200km), S-300PMU2 (200-300km) and upcoming S-400 (400km), would eventually threaten the IAF aircraft within Indian airspace from being shot down as well as in denying access to Chinese airspace.
How capable is India’s Su-30 MKI fighter?
An evolution of the Su-27 Flanker, the Su-30 MKI has been extensively upgraded, and the result is a long-range, twin-engine fighter with powerful radar and an amazing twelve hard points for the attachment of weapons. Thrust-vectoring control and canards make the plane highly manoeuvrable while the Zhuk active electronically scanned array radar makes it capable of engaging several targets at once.
The Su-30 MKI’s air-to-air armament includes R-73 infrared guided missiles and R-77 and R-27 radar-guided missiles. Of particular interest is the upcoming Novator KS-172/K-100 “AWACS killer” missile, capable of engaging targets at up to 300-400km. However, it is unclear when or even if the KS-172/K-100 missile will ever complete development and enter production. There are indications that the K-100 is likely a long-dormant project that might never see the light of day. Indeed, Moscow-based Barabanov said that the K-100 has likely been terminated, which could be a major blow for the Indian Su-30 MKI upgradation programme. The story of Sukhois still doesn’t end here; the IAF’s Su-30 MKIs continue to suffer from poor serviceability, which happens to be around 60 per cent.
Talking about targets on the ground, the Su-30 MKI can employ laser-guided bombs, Kh-59 standoff land-attack missiles and the BrahMos missile. The IAF has 200 Su-30 MKI air superiority fighters in service with other seventy-two on order. A portion of the Su-30 MKI force has been modified for the strategic reconnaissance role. Israeli-made sensor pods reportedly give the IAF the ability to look up to 300km into Pakistan (or China) simply by flying along the border.
Beefing up military preparedness in Ladakh region
For the second time in its entire history, the Indian Army has moved over 100 T-72 tanks to the front line in eastern Ladakh, located at 14,000 feet above sea level, six to eight months ago. Starting in 2014, two regiments of T-72 tanks have been moved to the Valley. The third regiment is scheduled to arrive soon, forming a complete brigade.
Ladakh is a geostrategically important region located along the so-called Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. Almost five decades ago, in a desperate attempt to use tanks against the invading Chinese army, the Indian Mechanized Division had airdropped five tanks in Ladakh, which has witnessed frequent incursion attempts by the PLA in recent years. Meanwhile, two advanced landing grounds (ALGs) at Daulat Beg Oldie and Nyoma have also been reactivated. Planes such as Super Hercules C-130J, Globemaster C-17 and AN-32 can land there, allowing rapid movement of troops, artillery guns, armoured vehicles and tanks.
India’s pro-active strategy of deploying BrahMos missiles in Arunachal
BrahMos is a joint Indo-Russian military project for creating a short-range supersonic cruise missile capable of being launched from land, air, and both surface and subsurface ships. BrahMos is one of the most advanced missiles in the world, capable of hitting targets on land and at sea with precision.
BrahMos was developed jointly by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya. The name itself is a mashup of Indian and Russian rivers, namely the Brahmaputra and the Moskva. BrahMos represents a substantial missile threat to PLA units as well as to their border infrastructure. The missile’s high speed and a range of 290km means that China’s air defences on the ground will have mere seconds to respond to a BrahMos attack. It poses a serious threat to China’s Tibet and Yunnan provinces.
The BrahMos isn’t just an anti-shipping weapon – it can also hit ground-based targets and is ideal for precision attacks against fixed installations such as radars, command centres, airbases and enemy missile batteries.
The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, had cleared a fourth BrahMos regiment at a cost of over Rs 4,300 crore. The regiment consists of around 100 missiles, five mobile autonomous launchers on 12×12 heavy-duty trucks and a mobile command post. BrahMos could threaten some of this infrastructure. The supersonic BrahMos cruise missile has excellent dive attack capabilities and is a good fit for the Sino-Indian border, where it’s mostly mountain topography while the “low observable” nature and “penetration capabilities” of the 2.5-3 Mach-speed missiles posed a threat to China’s border areas. The steep-dive attack cruise missile can hit enemy targets hidden in the shadows of mountains.
Why the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are important from a strategic point of view
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have a long history attached to it. During the British Raj, these Islands were referred to as “Kaala Paani” (Desh-Nikala), famously known for punishing Indian freedom fighters with extreme brutality, by a British jailer, David Barry. Apart from its history, the islands’ geography is bound to play an important role in India’s maritime strategy.
In the Bay of Bengal, far removed from the mainland, lie the 572 islands of Andaman and Nicobar, which form India’s south-east border. While the northernmost part of the archipelago is only 22 nautical miles away from Myanmar, the southernmost point, called the Indira Point, is a mere 90 nautical miles from Indonesia. These Islands are located 1,200km (745mi) away from the Indian mainland.
Among the nine major bottlenecks that control entry to this region are the Malacca Strait and the Six Degree Channel. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands lie in this strategically important zone, meaning that India with its growing naval capabilities could play a significant role in controlling access. Soon after coming to power last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi cleared a decade-old proposal to set up a radar station on an island lying a few miles from Coco Islands, which Myanmar has leased to China for the purpose of setting up a listening post. Reportedly, infrastructure development on Coco Islands was completed in short order, and besides a radar station, the Chinese have also built an airstrip.
Furthermore, according to a recent report by the news channel India News, Su-30 MKIs, P-81 Neptunes and Super Hercules C-130Js have also been stationed in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which would significantly bolster the capabilities of India away from its shores.
How India’s new mountain strike corps can act as a deterrence
Earlier, in 2009, the Indian Army deployed two similar mountain divisions in Arunachal Pradesh to boost its defences in the eastern sector. The new mountain strike corps, however, is expected to take the fight into Tibet and capture the Chinese territory there should the PLA invade the Indian territory. The decision to raise a new mountain strike corps has thus come in the wake of a growing realisation in New Delhi of its steadily declining conventional deterrence.
In recent years, India has tested and deployed several nuclear-capable long-range land- and sea-based missiles to acquire a credible second-strike capability. Still, the No First Use (NFU) policy removes the threat of nuclear escalation in the event of a conventional outbreak, leaving the nuclear doctrine bereft of any ability to deter Chinese forces from undertaking limited conventional attacks. The policy not only delinks nuclear weapons from conventional conflict but also places the burden of deterrence largely on conventional forces. A formidable conventional capability requires significant troop reinforcements, which is why the new mountain strike corps comes into being.
Meanwhile, in July 2016, the Indian Ministry of Defence has approved the purchase of 145 M777 Ultra Lightweight Howitzers from BAE Systems at a cost of about $750 million. The M777 is allegedly the world’s first 155 mm howitzer weighing less than 10,000 pounds (4,218kg). Partly made of titanium, the gun can be airlifted swiftly to high-altitude terrain and is ideally suited for mountain warfare. The M777 has a firing range of up to 25km. The Indian Army plans to induct the new gun into its new 17 Mountain Strike Corps, which is to be stood up by 2021.
Can a border dispute between India and China lead to a war?
The land dispute continues to prevent the full normalisation of relations between India and China. In addition, the territorial dispute has led to the dangerous militarisation of the Sino-Indian border, especially in disputed areas. Both sides have built transportation infrastructure, airstrips and outposts and deployed large numbers of troops to the border, including a Tibetan paramilitary special force employed by India’s intelligence service. The result has been frequent standoffs and even occasional skirmishes between Indian and Chinese soldiers. Provoked by border incursions and patrolling in disputed areas, such incidents could any day escalate into a larger armed conflict.
Although China soundly beat India in the 1962 war, since then India has come a long way. New Delhi has been stepping up modernisation of its armed forces in order to counter the assertive posture of the Chinese. Fortunately, the terrain on their mutual border makes a land war between the two a difficult – but not impossible – proposition. The armies of both India and China are now more evenly matched and the result could easily be a stalemate. While in such a case, the air power of India and China must be analysed.
The power balance with the Chinese Air Force is the greatest worry for India. In the 1990s and early 2000s, China bought 76 Su-27SK/UBK fighters and 100 Su-30MKK/MK2 fighters from Russia. It quickly built another 105 Su-27SK planes under a Russian licence and then launched the production of its own clones of these planes without bothering with the licence. They came to be known as J-11B, which included more advanced Chinese avionics and radars than even Russian Su-30s. The range of the J-11Bs is 3,530km and a top speed of Mach 2.35, which has eventually outclassed India’s Su-30MKI.
Back in the 2000s, the IAF compensated for the Chinese Air Force’s greater numbers with superior technology (thanks primarily to the rapid implementation of the Su-30MKI programme). But over the years, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force has started to look even more dangerous.
This is still not the end of the story. Now, China is about to start receiving the latest Russian Su-35 fighters. It is also working on its own quasi-fifth generation fighter programmes (J-20 and J-31) while its 4.5th generation fighter – J-11D too is getting closer towards operational status.
As a result, the Chinese Air Force has surpassed the Indian Air Force in terms of technology while also maintaining its impressive numerical superiority – which happens to be more than three times larger than the size of the IAF. India’s old defence procurement model, in which a period of seven to 10 years is required merely to prepare a contract, has therefore become obsolete and unsustainable.
Conclusion
China’s close relationship with India’s historical enemy, Pakistan, and its development of a military base in Gwadar, Pakistan – seen as an attempt to encircle India – are another source of tension. Assessing the current scenario of the Sino-India border dispute, Beijing’s interest continues to rise in positioning Pakistan as a counterweight to India (so as to relieve pressure from its own front), eventually bringing the scenario of a two-front war vis-à-vis India. As demonstrated with a recent purchase of eight AIP-powered submarines, Beijing is willing to offer Pakistan flexible support mechanisms – e.g. financing options – as a means to fulfil its defence needs.
Over a decade, the Chinese have provided numerous weapons that happen to be extremely formidable in nature, whether it is the Chinese-Pakistani FC-1 planes, ZDK-03 AWACS planes, Zulfiqar class frigates or a two-layered land-based surface-to-air missile (SAM) system – HQ-7 (20km), HQ-16 (40km).
Sino-Indian relations saw an upswing when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited India in 2014, and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned the visit in 2015. Both leaders agreed to focus on improving bilateral relations through commerce and trade. China agreed to partner with India in accelerating its economic development by investing in various infrastructure projects and setting up manufacturing facilities in India. It is to the credit of the leaders of both countries that they have kept the complex border disputes on the back-burner by agreeing to negotiate to find a mutually acceptable solution.
However, lately, relations took a sudden turn for the worse when China blocked India’s membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As if this was not enough, China also blocked India’s move to add Masood Azhar, the leader of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad terror group and the perpetrator of the Mumbai attack that claimed 166 lives in 2008, to the United Nations proscribed terrorist list.
This piece was first published on Indian Defence Review and has been republished here with permission.
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