By Bharat Lather
02 Sep , 2016
In the early 20th century, many Arab countries like Syria obtained their independence from western colonial powers. They began to assert themselves by the Arab nationals’ movements. This led to a number of Middle Eastern countries signing with the similarly anti-western USSR during the Cold War. In turn the Soviet Union provided some financial and military support.
With Russian air support, Syrian forces retook 3,860 square miles of territory and 400 population centers.
Additionally, the creation of Israel in 1948 was resented by many Arab countries, including Syria, Egypt and Iraq. Between 1955 and 1960, the Soviets gave Syrians over $200 million dollars in military aid in exchange for greater Soviet influence and increased foreign trade. In 1971, they were allowed to use a Syria port – “Tartus” for their own ships patrolling the Mediterranean Sea. That same year, the Assad family seized control of Syria. The new leader Hafez Al-Assad installed the hereditary authoritarian regime using the Soviet model for single party police state. Since then Syria has been riddled with economic, social and human rights problems.
The emergence of ISIS
The 2003 American invasion and occupation of Iraq created the pre-conditions for radical Sunni groups, like ISIS, to take root. America, rather unwisely, destroyed Saddam Hussein’s secular state machinery and replaced it with a predominantly Shiite administration. The U.S. occupation caused vast unemployment in Sunni areas, by rejecting socialism and closing down factories in the naive hope that the magical hand of the free market would create jobs.
Under the new U.S.-backed Shiite regime, working class Sunni’s lost hundreds of thousands of jobs. Unlike the white Afrikaners in South Africa, who were allowed to keep their wealth after regime change, upper class Sunni’s were systematically dispossessed of their assets and lost their political influence. Rather than promoting religious integration and unity, American policy in Iraq exacerbated sectarian divisions and created a fertile breeding ground for Sunni discontent, from which Al Qaeda in Iraq took root. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) used to have a different name: Al Qaeda in Iraq. After 2010 the group rebranded and refocused its efforts on Syria.
ISIS is not merely an instrument of terror used by America to topple the Syrian government; it is also used to put pressure on Iran.
There are essentially three wars being waged in Syria: one between the government and the rebels, another between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and yet another between America and Russia. It is this third, neo-Cold War battle that made U.S. foreign policy makers decide to take the risk of arming Islamist rebels in Syria, because Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, is a key Russian ally. Rather embarrassingly, many of these Syrian rebels have now turned out to be ISIS thugs, who are openly brandishing American-made M16 Assault rifles.
America’s Middle East policy revolves around oil and Israel. The invasion of Iraq has partially satisfied Washington’s thirst for oil, but ongoing air strikes in Syria and economic sanctions on Iran, although now lifted, have everything to do with Israel. The goal is to deprive Israel’s neighboring enemies, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestine’s Hamas, of crucial Syrian and Iranian support. ISIS is not merely an instrument of terror used by America to topple the Syrian government; it is also used to put pressure on Iran.
Russia’s intervention in Syria
Experts were predicting the Assad regime’s fall every year since the beginning of the uprising against him in 2011, but in 2015 the situation began to deteriorate quickly. In the first eight months of that year, the Assad regime lost 18 percent of its territory. Russia started the operation in response to the official Syrian request. In September 2015, Russia decided to intervene directly with an aerial campaign. The aim was clear: reversing the tides of the war and preventing the collapse of the Syrian government. By November 2015, the pro-Assad coalition of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hezbollah had managed to hold off Assad’s enemies and even gain a very small amount of territory. At present, majority of its cities have been re-captured by the Syrian army with the help of Russian air assistance.
About 1,000 Russian personnel will remain behind as advisers to the Syrian military and to protect Russia’s naval base at Tartus and the new airbase in Latakia. That suggests that the door will remain open for a swift return, should Moscow deem it necessary.
What all Russians have achieved in Syria before their withdrawal?
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russia’s six-month air campaign from September 2015 – March 2016, involved 9,000 combat sorties carried out by about 40 aircraft from the Syrian port city of Latakia. About 2,000 fighters from Russia and the former Soviet Union were killed during the campaign. With Russian air support, Syrian forces retook 3,860 square miles of territory and 400 population centers. Russian warplanes also destroyed vast amounts of infrastructure held by armed opposition groups, including more than 200 oil production facilities and thousands of tanker trucks. Most observers say that Russia’s relatively small military contingent performed far above expectations and significantly changed the game in Syria.
Russia’s withdrawal from Syria
Russian air operations over Syria are continuing at a somewhat reduced pace even as the Kremlin says it is withdrawing its main forces from the region. Russia is drawing down some of its forces—Moscow’s potent Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback bombers and Su-25 Frogfoot close air support aircraft have returned home. But Russia still has advanced Sukhoi Su-30SM and Su-35S multirole fighters and older Su-24 Fencer bombers at its base in Latakia. It also has a host of Mil Mi-24 and Mi-35 gunships at its Syrian base. Moreover, in some cases, Russia is increasing its footprint as advanced Kamov Ka-52 and Mil-28N gunships arrive in theatre. About 1,000 Russian personnel will remain behind as advisers to the Syrian military and to protect Russia’s naval base at Tartus and the new airbase in Latakia. That suggests that the door will remain open for a swift return, should Moscow deem it necessary.
Moreover, Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov is the biggest ship in the Russian navy and the most visible symbol of the Kremlin’s military power. It is likely that this October, it will travel to the Mediterranean and carry out air strikes in Syria.
President Putin also saw, this as an opportunity through intervening for Russia to become a more significant foreign player in Syria vis-à-vis the US. Russia was able to influence the direction of events more forcefully, and in turn limit aspects of the US-led coalition’s influence.
The turmoil in Iraq, Egypt and Libya has been very unprofitable for Russia who had previously very strong alliances with those countries. For instance, in 2011, the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, Russia claims to have lost more than $4 billion dollars in arms contracts.
Conclusion
In early September, 2015, Russia deployed military tanks and cargo planes in the Syria, despite western warnings that Russian involvement could escalate the Syrian civil war. Syria has been called Russia’s closet ally in the Middle East and one of its last. Today, Russia openly supports the current Syrian regime. For instance, in 2012, Russia along with China vetoed the UN resolution to sanction the Syrian government for human rights abuses. This was after the military under current President Bashar-al-Assad was accused of firing on civilians during government protests.
On multiple occasions, Russia has pledged to continue supporting Syria against terrorism and outside influence. One expert attributes this relationship to the fact that Russia is running out of stable allies in the Middle East to the chaotic Arab spring regime changes. The turmoil in Iraq, Egypt and Libya has been very unprofitable for Russia who had previously very strong alliances with those countries. For instance, in 2011, the fall of Gaddafi in Libya, Russia claims to have lost more than $4 billion dollars in arms contracts. US officials have made it clear that it won’t be right for any party, including Russia to provide any support to the Assad regime. However, it is in Russia’s best interest to keep its main ally in the Middle East, unified and stable. As long as Assad remains in power, Syria and Russia will continue to cooperate.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
No comments:
Post a Comment