The U.S. fears a "space Pearl Harbor," but it may be China that has more to lose.
From spy satellites to GPS navigation to communications, the U.S. has turned its advantage in space technology into war-winning capabilities. But that capability is also a dependency.The modern American way of war needs space to prevail on the battlefield—to keep track of adversaries, route communications traffic, and guide bombs to their destinations.
The problem with space is that it's above, well—everybody—and satellites sitting in orbit are sitting ducks. An adversary such as China that wanted to even the playing field could start downing American satellites with so-called anti-satellite weapons. A hypothetical surprise attack that cripples American space assets has been called a "Space Pearl Harbor," and would be a serious blow to the Pentagon's warmaking capability.
But in a new article, the Union of Concerned Scientists argues that China actually has more to lose in a space war than the United States.
A missile interceptor rises from the guided missile cruiser USS Lake Erie, on its way to intercept the satellite USA-193.
A war between the two countries would largely take place in the vastness of the Western Pacific. China will need its earth observation satellites, including spy satellites and ocean surveillance satellites, to locate and destroy a highly mobile U.S. 7th Fleet.
By contrast, the United States is well aware of the locations of China's permanent land-based facilities, including military bases, oil refineries, and government facilities. Unlike American carrier battle groups, those locations won't be going anywhere during wartime and can be targeted without the use of satellite navigation. It's a minor advantage but could turn out to be a crucial one in wartime.
The UCS believes that negotiations between Washington and Beijing to ban anti-satellite weapons are crucial to stop earth orbit from becoming filled with dangerous satellite debris. If that happens, space travel will be much more difficult for all—no matter who wins.
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