Selection of the next army chief will be one of the key focuses of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who has the distinction of having selected five of the last nine chiefs as a three-time Prime Minister of the country. Sharif has also been unlucky having personally selected Pervez Musharraf who went on to depose him in a coup in 1999. Musharraf also ordered a highly risky gamble of intrusion in Jammu and Kashmir in Kargil the same year which had brought much egg on the face of Sharif internationally. Nawaz Sharif’s most recent choice namesake though no relation General Raheel Sharif has also not been favourably disposed towards the Prime Minister.
He has pursued his course, has been more visible than Nawaz and after the crucial Panama Papers expose made a statement calling for all those involved in corruption to face public scrutiny. Relations between the Prime Minister’s Office and the GHQ have thus not been very favourable.
Thus Nawaz Sharif will remain extremely wary in the selection of the next army chief depending on some factors – smooth, civil military relations, commitment to professionalism, someone unlikely to stage a coup and management of regional relations, particularly with India. He will depend on the feedback from some advisers including brother Shahbaz Sharif and Finance Minister Ishaq Dar amongst others. The choice before Sharif will be from four top generals as indicated in Table below who have had a variety of exposures making them suitable for the post.
Lt Gen Zubair Hayat Chief of General Staff
Lt Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed Commander II Corps Multan
Lt Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday Commander XXXI Corps Bahawalpur
Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa Inspector General Training & Evaluation
[Source – Dawn Pakistan]
Of the four, Lt General Zubair Mahmood Hayat and Lt General Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed seem to be a head above the other two regarding professional exposures. Hayat led the Strategic Planning Division (SPD) and is now Chief of General Staff (CGS) a key appointment which he took over from Nadeem Ahmed. Purely on professional merit, the question will be who will be nominated as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and who will take on the mantle of the Army Chief as both are due for turnover in November.
On the other hand, professional considerations alone seldom decide the Army Chief’s appointment. Lt Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday has favourable political affiliations while Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa has extensive experience in handling Jammu and Kashmir having served as the GOC of 10 Corps. They do not have the professional pedigree of Hayat or Ahmed. Lt General Mazhar Jamil who heads the SPD at present is also in the run but is said to be close to former Pakistan Army chief General Kayani and may not get the green signal from the present Army Chief.
Meanwhile as per the grape vine, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif have reached an understanding on ‘no extension regime.’ Reports are doing the rounds that the Army chief will be appointed Field Marshal of the Pakistan Army. General Raheel Sharif claims success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb as well as improvement in the security situation in Karachi, the commercial capital which had become the crime capital of the country. If the demand of promoting General Raheel Sharif to the rank of Field Marshal is met, Sharif, if appointed, will be the country’s first Field Marshal to be nominated by the government as opposed to Field Marshal Ayub Khan, who was a self-appointed Field Marshal.
Finally, it is a moot point who becomes the Chief for the key decision-making body in the Pakistan Army is the collegiate of Corps Commanders – an unelected parliament of sorts where majority decision is what decides on the course whether it was to depose Nawaz Sharif after the sit-ins in 2014 or pursuing Operational Zarb E Azb. The Army Chief is a face of this body of senior generals of the Pak Army.
In related developments, as per the Dawn News, "the government appointed retired Lt Gen Zamir Hassan Shah defence secretary in an apparent U-turn after initially opposing his nomination by the military. Gen Shah replaced retired Lt Gen Alam Khattak, who completed his two-year contract on Aug 5. Gen Shah had retired from military service earlier this year. His last posting was adjutant general of Pakistan Army". The military hierarchy has always had its way in nominating the highest bureaucrat in the Ministry of Defence from amongst its ranks.
This ensures that there is a deeper understanding of issues military in the defence ministry while at the same time providing the Army with a link to the establishment. How important and effective this arrangement is regarding providing necessary inputs for coordination with other ministries is not clear as the task of the defence secretary is to mainly perform the role of smooth management of relations with counterparts which are mostly civilians. Thus a civilian bureaucrat may perform this role far better than retired officers, but the Army has always insisted on placing its own man on the top.
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