By Lt Gen Prakash Katoch
08 Sep , 2016
Speaking on the occasion of Defence Day of Pakistan on September 6, army chief Raheel Sharif stated, “I want to make it clear to all enemies of Pakistan that Pakistan has always been strong and today it is invincible…… Be the challenge military or diplomatic; on the borders or within the cities, we know our friends and foes all too well.” He said the greatest example of a relationship based on mutual respect and principle of equality in the region is the Pak-China friendship, adding, “CPEC is the paramount evidence of this relationship… I would like to assure that we shall not allow any external force to obstruct it and any such attempt will be dealt with iron hands.”
Raheel’s assertion “we know our friends and foes all too well” sounds hollow because the Nawaz duo (Nawaz and Raheel) have sold the country to China…
The Pakistani media went hyper quoting Raheel Sharif in saying Pakistan is “unconquerable”.
But the unsuspecting Pakistani public is unaware that this emphasis on invincibility and unconquerable is to hide the fact that Pakistan stands conquered already. Raheel’s assertion “we know our friends and foes all too well” sounds hollow because the Sherif duo (Nawaz and Raheel) have sold the country to China with whom Pakistan claims its friendship is “higher than the mountains and deeper than the ocean”.
Pakistan has been duped thoroughly by China; conquering Pakistan without firing a shot in line with teachings of Sun Tzu. A cost benefit analysis of the $46 billion Kashgar-Gwadar 3000 kms CPEC reveals that only $11 billion are coming from Chinese government for construction of roads and rail links. Pakistan will have to repay 80% of this investment to China, so in actual term this Chinese investment will only be 20%. At the moment the terms of repayment are not publicized but if China is charging interest and in case of default repayment, China is capable of extracting all $11 billion repayment back from Pakistan, if not more. The worst part is that bulk of the construction force and labourers are coming from China despite Pakistan footing 80% or more of costs.
Raheel Sharif’s boys are to provide security, for which naturally Pakistan bears all costs. The balance $35 billion investment is by China’s private sector for construction of coal based power plants. Coal for these plants will come from China under pretext of less ash environment pollution, not using cheaper coal available in Pakistan; the beauty being that Pakistani consumers will have to pay 27% extra costs for the electricity they purchase. Of course the Pakistani government has the option to subsidize the electricity for consumers but with that much extra burden on the exchequer.
…CPEC is a masterstroke of Xi Jinping which gives China tremenduous strategic advantage while costing little to the Chinese government…
China’s overt trumpeting of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) belies the fact that it has little money in her kitty for such massive projects, what with her outstanding debt, interests repayment and state of global market. To top this, China is faced with mounting workers protests and unemployment. OBOR simply exploits the country goes through with some 800 Chinese companies ready to invest and provide employment to millions of Chinese waiting in the wings – all at the cost the country hosting OBOR.
In the case of the CPEC, China will be the lion that feeds with some bones thrown Pakistan’s way. But China gets much more in strategic terms, leave aside the economic benefits. The CPEC will service as China’s energy and goods demands from the Gulf region through this shorter route. At the same time, movement of oil tankers through the longer sea route turns out to be 11 times cheaper.
The CPEC is a masterstroke of Xi Jinping which gives China tremenduous strategic advantage while costing little to the Chinese government: one, should the Straits of Malacca get blocked, China has the CPEC as alternative; two, Gwadar as Chinese nuclear submarine base dominates eastern end of Persian Gulf, giving leverage for quid pro quo in South China Sea; three, CPEC connection to Pakistan’s Omari naval base makes it accessible to China, giving greater domination over Persian Gulf coupled with Gwadar, and; four, rail link of CPEC and multiple development projects provide avenue for movement and deployment of weapon systems in silos and even rail mounted missiles to support future operations in the Indian Ocean Region.
Pakistani military scholar Agha H Amin had prophesied in 2008 (repeated in 2012), “There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030…”
What does Pakistan get out of the CPEC aside from being the sucker? Sure the army is going in for more raisings to protect the CPEC but with the type of Chinese influx in the offing including Chinese labourers, local discontent is going to be immense with locals denied employment. Whatever little employment is offered to locals will also breed discontent with obdurate attitude of Chinese bosses lording hurting self-respect of locals, this coupled with the discontent in Gilgit-Baltistan and Sindh, together with continuing Pakistani genocide in Balochistan is setting the stage for internal nightmare for the Pakistani army along the 3000 kms CPEC. No external interference will actually be needed.
Pakistan will perhaps have to divert troops from her borders to control the situation or alternatively ask for more PLA troops, which China will readily oblige but with provided costs for such deployment are borne by Pakistan. So instead of PLA troops guarding the CPEC (dubbed motorway in Gilgit-Baltistan) in civil attire and in civil trucks presently, the CPEC could well see uniformed PLA and Pakistani military milling around the entire 3000 kms of the CPEC, with locals warned to stay away. Raheel Sharif might as well order his army to start wearing the Chinese star on their caps or the Chinese flag on their right shoulder.
Pakistani military scholar Agha H Amin had prophesied in 2008 (repeated in 2012), “There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so… Pakistani Baluchistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show.” While Amin’s prophesy appears coming true, it looks China aims to realize this picture much before 2030.
In the case of CPEC, the Sharif duo (Nawaz and Raheel) have apparently sold ‘unconquerable ’Pakistan for a lark, themselves getting richer by millions…
The question remains is how did the powers that be in Pakistan ink such a one-sided agreement? This should not be difficult to guess. Just a month and a half earlier, London-based investigative journalist and consultant James D Crickton had made a startling revelation based on in-depth research that both former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf former Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani have bank accounts in Switzerland with several million US dollars stashed in them.
Nawaz Sharif himself has attained dubious fame through the Panama Papers. Chinese treat the leadership of any country as the centre of gravity, and anyway believe in buying their way through everywhere. In recent times, John Ashe, a former UN ambassador from Antigua and Barbuda who was UNGA President from 2013 to 2014, was accused in federal court in New York for taking more than $1.3 million in bribes from Chinese businessmen, including developer Ng Lap Seng.
In the case of CPEC, the Sharif duo (Nawaz and Raheel) have apparently sold ‘unconquerable ’Pakistan for a lark, themselves getting richer by millions – that is how posterity will probably remember them. One can only have sympathy for the Pakistani public.
© Copyright 2016 Indian Defence Review
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